Jan Choinski #88United Kingdom22 – 0Federico Agustin Gomez #191Argentina0

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35

The read

Choinski's superior recent clay form (8-1 vs 8-6, higher points/games won) and stronger return game give him a clear edge, amplified by Gomez's heavy 2h49 quarterfinal workload yesterday.

• Choinski last15 on clay: 8-1 record, 59.3% games won, 54.8% total points won (8 matches tracked).
• Gomez last15 on clay: 8-6 record, 49.4% games won, 49.6% total points won (13 matches tracked).
• Choinski holds a 65.6% first-serve in and 73.1% first-serve points won on clay in last15; Gomez 66.7% in, 67.2% won.
• Choinski's return points won on clay last15: 43.6% vs Gomez 37.4%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Choinski's straight-set dominance on clay and Gomez's physical toll point to a relatively quick match, likely under 21.5 games.

• Choinski's last15 clay matches averaged 19.4 total games; Gomez's averaged 21.4.
• Choinski won 6 of his last 9 clay matches in straight sets; Gomez 5 of 14.
• Gomez's recent three-setter took 2h49, likely reducing his endurance for a long match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Choinski's consistent game dominance on clay and Gomez's physical disadvantage support a handicap cover of -3.5 games.

• Choinski's last15 clay games-won margin: +2.8 per match; Gomez's: -0.1.
• Choinski covered -3.5 games in 5 of his last 9 clay wins; Gomez lost by >3.5 in 4 of his last 6 clay losses.
• Gomez's fatigue likely widens the margin in Choinski's favor.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

As Gomez fatigues, his second serve becomes vulnerable, likely leading to a decisive break and a set under 9.5 games.

• Choinski's last15 clay second-set average: 8.8 games; Gomez's: 9.1.
• Gomez's second-serve points won drops to 48.2% on clay, increasing break risk.
• Choinski's break-point saved on clay last15: 56.7% vs Gomez 65.1%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Choinski's strong start pattern on clay and higher first-serve effectiveness make him likely to take the opening set, especially against a potentially fatigued Gomez.

• Choinski won 8 of 9 first sets in his last15 clay matches; Gomez won 8 of 14.
• Choinski's first-set win conversion career is 88%; Gomez 83%.
• Choinski's last15 clay first-serve points won: 73.1%; Gomez 67.2%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Choinski's superior second-serve performance and consistent set-winning record on clay suggest he can close out the match in straight sets, with Gomez's fatigue likely to surface in the second set.

• Choinski won 7 of 9 second sets in his last15 clay matches; Gomez won 8 of 14.
• Choinski's break-point conversion on clay last15: 35.4%; Gomez 46.7% but with lower break-point opportunities.
• Gomez's second-serve points won on clay last15: 48.2% vs Choinski 57.6%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Choinski's form and Gomez's recovery deficit make a straight-set win likely, keeping total sets under 2.5.

• Choinski won 6 of 9 last15 clay matches in straight sets; Gomez 5 of 14.
• Gomez's last three-set match was yesterday (2h49), increasing straight-set loss probability.
• Choinski's career deciding-set win rate is 55%; Gomez 51%.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Given Choinski's tendency to win sets without tiebreaks on clay and Gomez's fatigue, a tiebreak is less likely.

• Choinski's last15 clay matches: 1 tiebreak in 9 matches; Gomez: 3 in 14.
• Both players have tiebreak win rates around 52% career.
• Choinski's straight-set wins often avoid tiebreaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

On clay, both players rely more on rallying than aces, and their combined ace rate suggests under 9.5 is likely.

• Choinski averages 5.6 aces per match on clay last15; Gomez 3.5.
• Combined average: 9.1 aces per match.
• Both players' first-serve percentages are around 66%, limiting ace opportunities.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Gomez's elevated double-fault rate on clay pushes the combined total over 4.5, even with Choinski's low count.

• Choinski averages 1.4 double faults per match on clay last15; Gomez 3.5.
• Combined average: 4.9 double faults per match.
• Gomez's high double-fault rate (3.5 per match) is a consistent pattern.