CzechiaLiberec - Czech RepublicFinished

Predictions graded

Norbert Gombos #423Slovakia2Kilian Feldbausch #242Switzerland1

Sets 4-6 · 6-1 · 6-1Fri 31 Jul 2026, 13:50 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions4–450%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKilian Feldbausch · 181 places

Norbert Gombos

Slovakia

A 35-year-old right-hander listed at No. 423 in the structured feed. He reached career-high No. 80 in October 2017; no reliable preferred-surface label was verified.

Current ranking: #423
Peak ranking: #80 · 2017
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Kilian Feldbausch

Switzerland

A 20-year-old right-hander listed at No. 242 in the structured feed; a searched public profile identifies clay as his favorite surface. Its career-high field was stale relative to the supplied current ranking, so the updated high and date remain unverified.

Current ranking: #242
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Jul 2026, 06:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Feldbausch holds a slight edge on clay with superior return stats and a H2H win, but Gombos' resilience and heavy workload make the 1.22 odds poor value.

The match is likely to be competitive, with over 21.5 total games and over 9.5 first-set games offering the best betting angles. Avoid backing Feldbausch outright at short odds, and consider the three-setter possibility.

Context

Gombos completed four matches from July 26-30, totaling about 5h55m of court time.
- His round-of-16 win on July 30 lasted 2:12:08, the longest match of his tournament.
- Feldbausch has played only two matches this week, totaling about 4h14m, with his last match a quick 1:21:56 win.
The 2025 match ended in retirement after Feldbausch won the second set and led 5-2 in the third.
- Gombos won the first set 6-4, showing he can compete with Feldbausch on clay.
- The retirement makes it unclear how the match would have finished if completed.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Kilian Feldbausch

1.22fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Feldbausch's superior return stats and higher first-serve consistency give him a structural edge on clay, supported by a recent H2H win.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Feldbausch's superior return stats and higher first-serve consistency give him a structural edge on clay, supported by a recent H2H win.
- Feldbausch last 15 clay: 73.3% win, 58.6% games won, 46.6% return points won (15 matches tracked).
- Gombos last 15 clay: 73.3% win, 55.1% games won, 41.0% return points won (15 matches tracked).
- Feldbausch holds a 1-0 H2H edge (clay, 2025), winning 4-6 6-4 5-2 ret.
- Feldbausch has a stronger return game (46.6% vs 41.0% return points won) and higher first-serve percentage (68.2% vs 58.1%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKilian FeldbauschEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both players in strong form and evenly matched on clay, a competitive match likely exceeds 21.5 games, as seen in recent outings.
- Gombos last 15 clay: average 19.6 games per match, but 4 of last 5 went over 21.5.
- Feldbausch last 15 clay: average 19.7 games per match, with 3 of last 5 over 21.5.
- H2H match (2025) featured 27 games in an incomplete three-setter.
- Both players have similar games-won percentages (55.1% vs 58.6%), suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Strong serving and few early breaks in recent matches suggest the first set will be tight, likely going over 9.5 games.
- Gombos last 5 set1 games: 10, 7, 13, 8, 7 (avg 9.0).
- Feldbausch last 5 set1 games: 9, 9, 8, 13, 6 (avg 9.0).
- Both players have a high first-serve points won % (Gombos 73.2%, Feldbausch 67.1%), limiting early breaks.
- H2H set1 had 10 games (4-6).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With solid break-point saving and competitive recent second sets, over 9.5 games is a reasonable expectation.
- Gombos last 5 set2 games: 10, 10, 7, 2 (ret.), 9 (avg 7.6, excluding retirement).
- Feldbausch last 5 set2 games: 9, 13, 8, 7, 10 (avg 9.4).
- Both players have break-point save rates above 62%, extending sets.
- Second-set dynamics often see a response from the first-set loser, leading to closer games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Feldbausch's superior return game and recent dominance suggest he can cover a -1.5 game handicap in a straight-set win.
- Feldbausch last 15 clay: +5.6% games won margin (58.6% - 50%).
- Gombos last 15 clay: +5.1% games won margin (55.1% - 50%).
- Feldbausch has a higher return points won % (46.6% vs 41.0%).
- H2H: Feldbausch won 15 games to Gombos' 12 before retirement.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostKilian Feldbausch -1.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Feldbausch's higher set-win percentage and strong first-set record in recent clay matches give him a slight edge to take the opener.
- Feldbausch last 15 clay: 72.7% sets won, 58.6% games won.
- Gombos last 15 clay: 65.6% sets won, 55.1% games won.
- Feldbausch has won the first set in 11 of his last 15 matches (73.3%).
- Gombos has won the first set in 9 of his last 15 matches (60.0%).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKilian FeldbauschEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While both players often win in straight sets, their similar form and the H2H history suggest a three-setter is a coin-flip possibility.
- Gombos last 15: 4 three-set matches (26.7%).
- Feldbausch last 15: 3 three-set matches (20.0%).
- H2H match went to a third set (retirement).
- Both players have deciding-set win rates around 52-53% career, indicating no clear edge in tight matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Feldbausch's low ace count drags the combined total below 5.5, making the under likely.
- Gombos last 15 clay: 4.2 aces per match.
- Feldbausch last 15 clay: 0.9 aces per match.
- Combined average: 5.1 aces per match.
- H2H match: 5 total aces (Gombos 2, Feldbausch 3).
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 2+ double faults, and the H2H showed a high count, pushing the total over 4.5.
- Gombos last 15 clay: 2.1 double faults per match.
- Feldbausch last 15 clay: 2.4 double faults per match.
- Combined average: 4.5 double faults per match.
- H2H match: 10 double faults (Gombos 3, Feldbausch 7).
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Prediction history

Kilian Feldbausch has been highly reliable when projected to win

In 11 matches where Kilian Feldbausch was predicted to win, he fulfilled that prediction 9 times. The average estimated probability in those wins was 67.8%, while the two losses occurred at lower probabilities of 58% each. The current prediction of 62% sits within the historical range of 58–78%, aligning with probabilities where he has previously succeeded.

Recent evidence for Kilian Feldbausch11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#307Duje Ajdukovic0-2#242Kilian Feldbausch

BetBugsKilian Feldbausch to win·62%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#307Duje Ajdukovic0-2#242Kilian Feldbausch

Kilian Feldbausch to win

62%probability

Kilian Feldbausch won

Matched

28 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#284Kilian Feldbausch2-1#211Harold Mayot

BetBugsKilian Feldbausch to win·65%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#284Kilian Feldbausch2-1#211Harold Mayot

Kilian Feldbausch to win

65%probability

Kilian Feldbausch won

Matched

21 Jul·ATP Kitzbuhel

#71Adolfo Daniel Vallejo0-2#262Kilian Feldbausch

BetBugsKilian Feldbausch to win·62%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

ATP Kitzbuhel

#71Adolfo Daniel Vallejo0-2#262Kilian Feldbausch

Kilian Feldbausch to win

62%probability

Kilian Feldbausch won

Matched

19 Jul·ATP Kitzbuhel

#262Kilian Feldbausch2-0#291Sandro Kopp

BetBugsKilian Feldbausch to win·62%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

ATP Kitzbuhel

#262Kilian Feldbausch2-0#291Sandro Kopp

Kilian Feldbausch to win

62%probability

Kilian Feldbausch won

Matched

30 Jun·Troyes - France

#279Kilian Feldbausch2-0#403Samuele Pieri

BetBugsKilian Feldbausch to win·65%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

Troyes - France

#279Kilian Feldbausch2-0#403Samuele Pieri

Kilian Feldbausch to win

65%probability

Kilian Feldbausch won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L4-6 6-4 5-2 ret.Norbert Gombos#423vKilian Feldbausch#242Mar 31, 2025

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Norbert Gombos

11W 4L

7-5 7-5#225Franco Roncadelli 6-1 4-6 6-2#700Matyas Cerny 7-6(6) 6-1#570Tomasz Berkieta

6-0 2-0 ret.#678Samir Hamza Reguig

6-1 6-3#324Dominic Stricker

4-3 ret.#279Filip Cristian Jianu

6-1 6-2#672Amit Vales

2-6 7-6(2) 7-5#580Alexander Ritschard

7-6(4) 6-2#216Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-3 6-3#124Sebastian Ofner

6-0 6-3#871Orlando Luz

7-5 6-4#704Marc Majdandzic

7-6(9) 6-1#190Elmer Moller

6-3 4-6 6-2#387Georgii Kravchenko

7-6(7) 6-4#756Manuel Mazza

Kilian Feldbausch

11W 4L

6-3 6-3#307Duje Ajdukovic 6-3 6-7(6) 6-4#255Harold Mayot

2-6 6-2 6-2#34Ignacio Buse

7-6(2) 6-1#65Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

6-0 6-4#286Sandro Kopp

6-4 6-2#134Gustavo Heide

6-1 1-6 6-3#60Miomir Kecmanovic

7-6(5) 6-3#319Marvin Moeller

6-4 6-3#201Lorenzo Giustino

6-1 6-3#272Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-1 6-4#378Ioannis Xilas

6-2 6-2#400Samuele Pieri

6-3 6-2#177Max Alcala Gurri

6-4 6-2#654Leo Raquillet

6-4 6-3#569Svyatoslav Gulin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NGNorbert GombosGombos

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Kilian FeldbauschFeldbauschKF

Norbert Gombos carries the stronger recent form — Kilian Feldbausch's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.1%+10.1pp68.2%

1st Serve Won73.2%+6.1pp67.1%

2nd Serve Won52.4%—51.9%

Aces / Match4.2+3.30.9

Double Faults / Match2.10.3 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.0%+5.6pp46.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted47.6%+2.1pp45.5%

Break Pts Saved65.8%+3.0pp62.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won52.7%+1.5pp54.2%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

58.1%1st Serve In+10.1pp68.2%

73.2%1st Serve Won+6.1pp67.1%

52.4%2nd Serve Won—51.9%

4.2Aces / Match+3.30.9

2.1Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

41.0%Return Pts Won+5.6pp46.6%

Pressure · 2–0

47.6%Break Pts Converted+2.1pp45.5%

65.8%Break Pts Saved+3.0pp62.8%

Points · 0–1

52.7%Total Pts Won+1.5pp54.2%

Norbert Gombos #423Slovakia2Kilian Feldbausch #242Switzerland1

Player Profiles

Norbert Gombos

Kilian Feldbausch

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Kilian Feldbausch 2-1

Kilian Feldbausch

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Kilian Feldbausch @ 1.22

Norbert Gombos 2-0 @ 7.00

Kilian Feldbausch has been highly reliable when projected to win

Head-to-Head

Norbert Gombos

Kilian Feldbausch

Stat Battle