AustriaATP KitzbuhelFinished

Predictions graded

Kilian Feldbausch #262Switzerland2Sandro Kopp #291Austria0

Sets 6-0 · 6-4Sun 19 Jul 2026, 13:55 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions3–350%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKilian Feldbausch · 29 places

Kilian Feldbausch

Switzerland

20-year-old Swiss right-hander listed at 191cm. Current public context shows him staying on the Alpine clay swing after Gstaad and winning his Kitzbuhel qualifying opener on 19 July.

Current ranking: #262
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Sandro Kopp

Austria

Austrian right-hander listed at 185cm. Current public context shows a straight-sets Kitzbuhel qualifying win on 19 July; reliable public bio detail beyond the prompt data was limited.

Current ranking: #291
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Jul 2026, 10:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Kilian Feldbausch's superior return game and dominant clay form (12-3 in last 15) make him a strong favorite against Sandro Kopp in this Kitzbuhel qualifying final.

Feldbausch's 87% first-set win rate and Kopp's low break-point conversion (40.6%) point to a straight-sets victory, with the Feldbausch 2-0 set betting market offering slight value. Avoid the total games over 21.5, as Feldbausch's efficient wins suggest a shorter match.

Context

Feldbausch's return points won in the last 15 matches is 47.3%, compared to Kopp's 40.8%.
- Feldbausch has converted 50% of break points in that span, while Kopp has converted only 40.6%.
- In his last match, Feldbausch broke top-150 opponent Gustavo Heide four times in a 6-4, 6-2 win.
Kopp's break-point conversion rate in the last 15 matches is 40.6%, below Feldbausch's 50%.
- Kopp's return points won is 40.8%, indicating he creates fewer break opportunities overall.
- In his last match against Pierre-Hugues Herbert, Kopp converted only 2 of 7 break points.
Feldbausch's career first-set win conversion is 87%, meaning he rarely loses after winning the first set.
- In his last 15 matches, Feldbausch has won the first set 12 times.
- Kopp's first-set win percentage in the same span is lower, with several tight sets going to tiebreaks.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Kilian Feldbausch

1.29fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Feldbausch's superior return game and recent clay form give him a clear edge in this qualifying final.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Kilian Feldbausch

1.36fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Feldbausch's strong start tendency and high first-set conversion rate make him likely to take the opener.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Kilian Feldbausch 2-0

1.75fair 1.69

BetBugs 45% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Feldbausch's high first-set win conversion and dominant clay form suggest a straight-set win is slightly undervalued.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Feldbausch's superior return game and recent clay form give him a clear edge in this qualifying final.
- Feldbausch has a 12-3 record in his last 15 matches on clay, winning 80% of matches.
- Feldbausch's return points won in the last 15 matches is 47.3%, significantly higher than Kopp's 40.8%.
- Feldbausch's first-set win conversion rate is 87% over his career, indicating strong starts.
- Kopp's break point conversion rate in the last 15 matches is only 40.6%, compared to Feldbausch's 50%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKilian FeldbauschEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players in good form and competitive clay-court dynamics, a longer match is plausible.
- Both players have high games-won percentages in recent matches: Feldbausch 59.3%, Kopp 57.5%.
- Kopp's last 15 matches average 24.3 total games per match.
- Feldbausch's last 15 matches average 20.5 total games, but several went over 21.5.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be closely contested, pushing the total games over 9.5.
- Feldbausch's recent first sets average 9.2 games, with several going over 9.5.
- Kopp's recent first sets average 10.1 games, often reaching 10 or more.
- Both players have strong serve and return stats, leading to competitive opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Feldbausch's strong start tendency and high first-set conversion rate make him likely to take the opener.
- Feldbausch has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches.
- Feldbausch's career first-set win conversion is 87%, indicating he capitalizes on early leads.
- Kopp's first-set win percentage in the last 15 matches is lower, with several tight sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKilian FeldbauschEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kopp's higher ace rate could push the total over 5.5 in a potentially tight match.
- Kopp averages 2.3 aces per match in his last 15, Feldbausch 0.9.
- Combined average aces per match is 3.2, but Kopp's serve can produce more on clay.
- In a competitive match, total aces could exceed 5.5 if Kopp serves well.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages suggest a total over 3.5 is likely in a competitive match.
- Feldbausch averages 2.1 double faults per match in his last 15.
- Kopp averages 1.9 double faults per match in his last 15.
- Combined average is 4.0, and pressure situations could increase double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Kilian Feldbausch

12W 3L

6-4 6-2#136Gustavo Heide

6-1 1-6 6-3#59Miomir Kecmanovic

7-6(5) 6-3#314Marvin Moeller

6-4 6-3#196Lorenzo Giustino

6-1 6-3#272Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-1 6-4#351Ioannis Xilas

6-2 6-2#401Samuele Pieri

6-3 6-2#229Max Alcala Gurri

6-4 6-2#654Leo Raquillet

6-4 6-3#571Svyatoslav Gulin

6-2 6-4#449Laurent Lokoli

6-0 4-6 6-4#278Martin Krumich

7-6(1) 6-4#302Dali Blanch

3-6 6-4 6-2#256Hynek Barton

6-7(3) 6-2 6-1#346Federico Bondioli

Sandro Kopp

12W 3L

6-4 6-4#247Pierre-Hugues Herbert

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#381Manas Manoj Dhamne

6-4 6-2#256Hynek Barton

7-6(5) 3-6 7-6(8)#272Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-2 3-6 6-4#369Petr Nesterov

6-3 6-3#302Dali Blanch

6-1 7-5#572Alexander Vasilev

6-2 5-7 6-3#474Viktor Durasovic

7-6(1) 7-6(4)#618Dylan Dietrich

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3—Tanguy Genier

6-4 7-6(4)#397Henry Bernet

6-7(2) 7-6(5) 6-3#881Alexandre Aubriot

6-3 7-6(3)#861Nicolas Parizzia

7-6(5) 6-4#505Niels Mcdonald

6-1 6-1#397Henry Bernet

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KFKilian FeldbauschFeldbausch

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Sandro KoppKoppSK

Sandro Kopp carries the stronger recent form — Kilian Feldbausch's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In72.1%+2.5pp69.6%

1st Serve Won66.3%+5.4pp71.7%

2nd Serve Won50.4%+8.0pp58.4%

Aces / Match0.9+1.42.3

Double Faults / Match2.1—1.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won47.3%+6.5pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted50.0%+9.4pp40.6%

Break Pts Saved58.0%+3.9pp61.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won54.3%—53.8%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

72.1%1st Serve In+2.5pp69.6%

66.3%1st Serve Won+5.4pp71.7%

50.4%2nd Serve Won+8.0pp58.4%

0.9Aces / Match+1.42.3

2.1Double Faults / Match—1.9

Return · 1–0

47.3%Return Pts Won+6.5pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

50.0%Break Pts Converted+9.4pp40.6%

58.0%Break Pts Saved+3.9pp61.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

54.3%Total Pts Won—53.8%