Kilian Feldbausch vs Samuele Pieri: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Feldbausch's superior clay-court form and higher ranking (279 vs 403) give him a clear edge, supported by his 87% first-set win conversion rate.
- Feldbausch has a 22-7 clay record in 2026 vs Pieri's 25-15, giving him a higher win rate on the surface.
- Feldbausch's recent form: 8-2 in last 10 matches, all on clay, with dominant wins over top-300 opponents.
- Pieri's last 5 matches: 3-2, but losses came against lower-ranked players (Rehberg #510, Roca Batalla #316).
- Feldbausch holds a 191cm height advantage and a stronger first-serve win rate (62.1% vs 64.6% for Pieri, but Feldbausch faces weaker returners).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKilian FeldbauschEstimated chance65%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pieri's competitive losses and Feldbausch's narrow win margins suggest Pieri can keep the match within 3.5 games.
- Pieri's last 5 losses were by margins of 6, 5, 5, 7, and 7 games, but against stronger opponents.
- Feldbausch's last 5 wins were by margins of 6, 5, 5, 6, and 6 games, rarely covering -3.5 against similar competition.
- Pieri's break-point save rate (55.6%) is slightly better than Feldbausch's (54.5%), helping him stay close.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostSamuele Pieri +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in first sets that often reach 10 games, making over 9.5 a reasonable outcome.
- Feldbausch's last 5 first sets: 6-4, 6-4, 6-2, 6-3, 6-0 (average 9.4 games).
- Pieri's last 5 first sets: 2-6, 6-1, 3-6, 5-7, 6-7 (average 9.8 games).
- Combined, 7 of 10 recent first sets had 10+ games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match data shows a tendency for longer matches, and both players' break-point resilience supports a total games over 21.5.
- Feldbausch's last 5 matches averaged 20.6 games, with 3 exceeding 21.5.
- Pieri's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 games, with 4 exceeding 21.5.
- Both players have high break-point save rates (Feldbausch 54.5%, Pieri 55.6%), suggesting competitive games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have trended toward 10+ games, especially in Pieri's matches, supporting the over.
- Feldbausch's last 5 second sets: 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4, 4-6 (average 9.0 games).
- Pieri's last 5 second sets: 6-3, 7-6, 6-3, 6-3, 7-6 (average 10.2 games).
- In 6 of their combined last 10 second sets, games exceeded 9.5.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Feldbausch's consistent first-set performance and Pieri's recent slow starts make Feldbausch the likely set 1 winner.
- Feldbausch has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches.
- Pieri lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including against lower-ranked Rehberg.
- Feldbausch's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKilian FeldbauschEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While clay reduces aces, both players' recent ace numbers and the potential for a longer match push the total over 5.5.
- Feldbausch averages 1.6 aces per match, Pieri 2.3, combining for 3.9 on average.
- In best-of-3 clay matches, ace counts can be lower, but both have shown ability to hit aces in recent matches.
- Pieri hit 7 aces in his last match (vs Rehberg), and Feldbausch hit 3 in his last win.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Feldbausch's higher double-fault rate and the potential for a tight match could push the total over 5.5.
- Feldbausch has a 5% double-fault rate, averaging about 3 per match.
- Pieri has a 2.5% double-fault rate, averaging about 1.5 per match.
- Combined, they average 4.5 double faults, but in pressure situations, this could increase.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Pieri's high tiebreak involvement and both players' competitive sets make a tiebreak likely.
- Pieri has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 10 matches.
- Feldbausch has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 10 matches.
- Pieri's tiebreak win rate is 64%, indicating he often forces tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Kilian Feldbausch #279Switzerland2Samuele Pieri #403Italy0

Player Profiles

Kilian Feldbausch

Samuele Pieri

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Kilian Feldbausch 2-0

Kilian Feldbausch

Kilian Feldbausch

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Kilian Feldbausch @ 1.18

Samuele Pieri 2-1 @ 7.00

Kilian Feldbausch

Samuele Pieri