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New Mexico UnitedPhoenix Rising

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 23:001 Nov, 23:00

7Probabilities7Priced7Edges85%Strongest

Strong leanLeanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 1 Nov 2026, 03:50 · Europe/Bucharest

League-leading New Mexico host a Phoenix side that has drawn ten of 30 league games and won only three times on the road.

The home win is the likeliest result, and at 2.05 it asks for 48.8% against a home record that supports about 48% — fair, not generous. The one price with something behind it is under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.55.

Context

No reported availability issues, no venue detail and no current team news; the read rests on league records, home and away splits and this season's head-to-head meetings.

That result is the freshest guide to this pairing at this venue, and it was settled by a single goal. Both teams scored, with New Mexico 1-0 ahead at half-time before the game opened up after the break. It points to a close home win rather than a comfortable one.
- New Mexico United 2-1 Phoenix Rising, USL Championship, 4 October 2026 (first half 1-0, second half 1-1).
Nine wins and three draws from 15 home games is the platform for New Mexico's place at the top of the table. A home goal difference of plus eight is solid rather than spectacular, and three home defeats show they can be beaten there. Phoenix's task is to make it four.
- New Mexico home split across 15 matches in the 2026 USL Championship: 9 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses, 26 goals for, 18 against.
Drawing five of 15 away games is a large part of why Phoenix sit eighth while winning only three on the road. Conceding 23 goals in those 15 matches gives New Mexico a plausible route to goals without needing a dominant performance. It also means Phoenix rarely collapse away from home.
- Phoenix Rising away split across 15 matches in the 2026 USL Championship: 3 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses, 16 goals for, 23 against.
It shows the away record is not only draws and defeats, because Phoenix scored three and led 2-0 at half-time that day. A similar start here would quickly change the shape of the first half. It is one match rather than a trend, and their previous away outing ended 0-3 at Oakland Roots on 27 September.
- Orange County SC 1-3 Phoenix Rising, USL Championship, 18 October 2026 (first half 0-2, second half 1-1).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

New Mexico United

2.05fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 48.8%

−0.8ppshort

New Mexico have the stronger home record and recent home head-to-head wins over Phoenix.

Home Goals TotalUncertainty band: Strong lean

New Mexico United over 0.5

1.17fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 85.5%

−0.5ppshort

New Mexico have scored in every tracked home match and Phoenix have not kept an away clean sheet.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 64.5%

−4.5ppshort

Both teams have scored regularly in New Mexico home games and Phoenix away games.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.60fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 62.5%

−4.5ppshort

The combined home-away goal averages and recent head-to-head scores point to a game with at least three goals.

Away Goals TotalUncertainty band: Strong lean

Phoenix Rising over 0.5

1.29fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 77.5%

−4.5ppshort

Phoenix have usually scored on the road and New Mexico have rarely kept home clean sheets.

Double Chance First HalfUncertainty band: Strong lean

New Mexico United or Draw

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

−8.0ppshort

New Mexico's home first-half defence and Phoenix's modest away first-half attack make a first-half loss unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result2 outcomes · top 72%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
New Mexico have the stronger home record and recent home head-to-head wins over Phoenix.
- New Mexico are 1st in the USL Championship with 52 points; Phoenix are 8th with 40.
- New Mexico's home record is 9W-3D-3L (26 GF, 18 GA) in 15 home matches.
- Phoenix's away record is 3W-5D-7L (16 GF, 23 GA) in 15 away matches.
- New Mexico beat Phoenix 2-1 at home on 4 Oct and 4-0 at home in the League One Cup on 7 Jun.
BetBugs · Match WinnerNew Mexico UnitedMarket price2.05Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
New Mexico's home first-half defence and Phoenix's modest away first-half attack make a first-half loss unlikely.
- New Mexico average 0.71 first-half goals for and only 0.29 against at home.
- Phoenix average 0.57 first-half goals for and 0.86 against away.
- Phoenix have conceded more first-half goals on the road than they have scored.
- New Mexico's overall first-half goals against average is 0.47.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfNew Mexico United or DrawMarket price1.25Estimated chance72%

Goals5 outcomes · top 85%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
New Mexico have scored in every tracked home match and Phoenix have not kept an away clean sheet.
- New Mexico scored in all 7 home matches in the tracked window.
- Phoenix kept no clean sheet in 7 away matches in the tracked window.
- New Mexico average 1.86 goals per home match.
- Phoenix concede 1.57 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalNew Mexico United over 0.5Market price1.17Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both teams have scored regularly in New Mexico home games and Phoenix away games.
- New Mexico's home matches had both teams scoring in 6 of 7 tracked games.
- Phoenix's away matches had both teams scoring in 5 of 7 tracked games.
- Phoenix's overall matches had both teams scoring in 12 of 15.
- New Mexico's home average is 1.86 goals for and 1.43 against.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.55Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
The combined home-away goal averages and recent head-to-head scores point to a game with at least three goals.
- New Mexico home matches average 3.29 total goals (1.86 for, 1.43 against).
- Phoenix away matches average 2.71 total goals (1.14 for, 1.57 against).
- Four of the last five head-to-head meetings produced at least 3 goals.
- Both teams scored in 6 of New Mexico's 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.60Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Phoenix have usually scored on the road and New Mexico have rarely kept home clean sheets.
- Phoenix scored in 5 of 7 away matches in the tracked window.
- New Mexico conceded in 6 of 7 home matches.
- Phoenix average 1.14 goals per away match.
- New Mexico's home clean-sheet rate is 1 in 7.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalPhoenix Rising over 0.5Market price1.29Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding averages point to a low-scoring opening period.
- New Mexico average 0.71 first-half goals for and 0.29 against at home.
- Phoenix average 0.57 first-half goals for and 0.86 against away.
- New Mexico's overall first-half goals against average is 0.47.
- Phoenix's overall first-half goals for average is 1.00, but away it drops to 0.57.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.55Estimated chance68%

Prediction history

New Mexico United: 3/6 recent goals projections matched

3 of 6 comparable goals projections involving New Mexico United matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for New Mexico United6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

16 Jul·USL Championship