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Gimnasia y Tiro de SaltaQuilmes AC

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 22:001 Nov, 22:00

7Probabilities7Priced7Edges83%Strongest

Strong leanSlight lean

Quick Take

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Context last updated 1 Nov 2026, 03:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Gimnasia's home solidity meets a Quilmes side with one away win all season, so a narrow home victory is the likely shape of this one.

Not at 1.7, though: that price asks more than the home record justifies. The reviewed prices that hold up are both teams to score – No at 1.55 and Gimnasia to score at least once at 1.22.

Context

The home-away split is strongly evidenced on both sides, but Quilmes' 1-0 win in the June 2026 meeting and Gimnasia's 0-3 loss at Midland on 25 October keep the match from being one-sided. No team news or further research context was available.

Only one of Quilmes' 17 away league matches has ended in victory, and the five draws in that split mean a point is not out of reach. Eleven goals across 17 road games underlines how little they have produced away from home, which puts the burden on their defence here.
- Quilmes' 2026 league away record: 17 matches, 1 win, 5 draws, 11 losses, 11 goals for, 22 against (standings snapshot 1 November 2026).
- Quilmes' last six away league matches (1 August-17 October 2026): 0W-2D-4L, 0.5 goals per game, both teams scoring once.
The last three meetings have all been decided by a single goal or drawn, and the most recent one went Quilmes' way. That result is the clearest evidence against treating this as a straightforward home win, even allowing for Quilmes' poor travelling record.
- Quilmes 1-0 Gimnasia y Tiro, 13 June 2026, Primera Nacional.
- Gimnasia y Tiro 2-1 Quilmes, 13 June 2025; Quilmes 1-1 Gimnasia y Tiro, 8 February 2025.
Gimnasia have conceded 0.17 goals per home match across that six-match sample and scored 1.33, so their home games have been tight rather than high-scoring. Keeping the back door shut is what has driven the run; the margin at the other end has usually been a single goal.
- Gimnasia's last six home league matches (26 July-17 October 2026): 5W-1D-0L, 5 goals for, 1 against, five clean sheets.
- Per-match home averages over that sample: 1.33 goals for, 0.17 against.
The most recent away outing ended in a three-goal defeat, which is the sharpest caution against reading the home record as a guarantee. The preceding home win over Atlanta shows the same side scoring three, so recent results have swung widely by venue.
- Midland 3-0 Gimnasia y Tiro, 25 October 2026, Primera Nacional.
- Gimnasia y Tiro 3-1 Atlanta, 17 October 2026, Primera Nacional.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result2 outcomes · top 82%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Gimnasia's strong home record and Quilmes' winless away run point to a home victory.
- Gimnasia's league home record is 9W-6D-2L with 20 goals for and 10 against.
- Quilmes' league away record is 1W-5D-11L with 11 goals for and 22 against.
- Gimnasia is 5W-1D in their last six home matches, keeping five clean sheets.
- Quilmes is 0W-2D-4L in their last six away matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerGimnasia y Tiro de SaltaMarket price1.70Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Quilmes have rarely led at half-time away from home and Gimnasia are solid early at home.
- Gimnasia conceded only 0.17 first-half goals per home match in their last six.
- Quilmes scored only 0.17 first-half goals per away match in their last six.
- Quilmes conceded 1.0 first-half goal per away match in their last six.
- Gimnasia average 0.5 first-half goals for at home in the last six.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfGimnasia y Tiro de Salta or DrawMarket price1.13Estimated chance82%

Goals5 outcomes · top 83%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Quilmes rarely score away from home and Gimnasia's home defense has been very clean.
- Gimnasia kept seven clean sheets in 15 overall matches and five in six home matches.
- Quilmes' matches produced both teams scoring only three times in 15 overall.
- Quilmes averaged 0.5 goals in their last six away matches and both teams scored in just one of those six.
- Gimnasia's home split shows both teams scoring in only one of six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price1.55Estimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Quilmes have struggled to score on the road and face a tightly organized home defense.
- Quilmes scored 11 goals in 17 league away matches.
- Quilmes averaged 0.5 goals in their last six away matches.
- Gimnasia conceded only 0.17 goals per home match in their last six, with five clean sheets.
- Quilmes were shut out in several recent away defeats.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalQuilmes AC under 1.5Market price1.15Estimated chance82%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Gimnasia have consistently scored at home while Quilmes have regularly conceded away.
- Gimnasia scored in 10 of 15 overall matches and in five of six home matches.
- Quilmes conceded in five of their last six away matches.
- Gimnasia averaged 1.33 goals per home match in their last six.
- Quilmes' away defense conceded 1.5 goals per game in their last six.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalGimnasia y Tiro de Salta over 0.5Market price1.22Estimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Both teams' season averages and recent splits point to a low-scoring match.
- Gimnasia's overall matches average 2.07 total goals (1.2 for, 0.87 against).
- Quilmes' overall matches average 1.87 total goals (0.93 for, 0.93 against).
- Gimnasia's last six home matches averaged 1.5 total goals.
- Quilmes' last six away matches averaged 2.0 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5Market price1.53Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
First-half scoring rates for both teams are low, especially for Quilmes away.
- Gimnasia average 0.53 first-half goals for and 0.27 against per match.
- Quilmes average 0.33 first-half goals for and 0.53 against per match.
- Gimnasia's last six home matches average 0.67 first-half goals in total.
- Quilmes' last six away matches average 1.17 first-half goals in total.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.25Estimated chance77%

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Prediction history

Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta: 5/6 recent goals projections matched

5 of 6 comparable goals projections involving Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Primera Nacional

Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta1-0