Everton3Newcastle1

HT 2–0Thu 29 Oct 2026, 19:45 Predictions graded

Predictions5–456%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 11–28On targetOn target 5–9CornersCorners 4–10

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 04:27 · Europe/Bucharest

A sold-out Round Four tie at Hill Dickinson Stadium sets Everton's home clean sheets against a Newcastle side that has scored none of its five away goals before half-time.

A tight, low-scoring cup night is the likely shape. Under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.45 and both teams to score — no at 2.25 are the two quotes that hold up; the corner and double-chance prices ask too much.

Context

The series has produced a winner in four of the last five meetings, and Everton have taken the two most recent after Newcastle's 4-1 in November 2025. That history argues against treating home advantage as decisive. The August 2026 friendly is the weakest guide of the three, since friendly selections rarely resemble a cup tie.
- Everton 1-4 Newcastle, Premier League, 29 November 2025.
- Newcastle 2-3 Everton, Premier League, 28 February 2026.
- Newcastle 1-3 Everton, friendly, 12 August 2026.
- Everton 0-0 Newcastle, Premier League, 5 October 2024.
Newcastle's away scoring has arrived entirely after the break in this sample, with no first-half away goal in five matches. Everton's home first halves are quiet too, at 0.4 goals scored and none conceded per home game. A slow opening 45 minutes is the reading, though one set-piece or error can change it quickly.
- Newcastle away first half: 0.0 goals scored per match across 5 away matches (29 Aug–25 Oct 2026).
- Newcastle away second half: 1.4 goals scored per match across the same 5 matches.
- Newcastle away first half: 0.8 goals conceded per match across those 5 matches.
Everton have conceded in only one of five home matches, keeping three clean sheets while scoring four goals themselves. That points to low-scoring home games rather than a dominant attacking display. Newcastle arrive with five away goals in five matches, so the visitors' finishing is the obvious threat to that pattern.
- Everton home: 5 matches tracked, 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (22 Aug–17 Oct 2026).
- Everton home: 3 clean sheets and both teams scored in 1 of 5.
- Everton home: 4 goals scored across those 5 matches.
The fixture is scheduled at Hill Dickinson Stadium at 19:45 on Thursday 29 October, and all tickets have been taken. That establishes a full-stadium setting for this cup tie. It does not establish how the crowd will affect either side’s performance.
- Everton host Newcastle in Carabao Cup Round Four on Thursday 29 October.
- Kickoff at Hill Dickinson Stadium is scheduled for 19:45.
- The tie is sold out.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 04:25 · Europe/BucharestEverton v Newcastle Carabao Cup ticket newswww.evertonfc.com · 24 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Home CornerswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Everton over 3.5

1.33fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 75.2%

−8.2ppshort

Everton are a steady corner producer at home and Newcastle's away defending concedes a healthy supply, so the home side clearing four corners is well within their normal range.

Corners Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 8.5

1.50fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 66.7%

−3.7ppshort

Both teams sit near five corners each per match and their opponents concede similar numbers, so a combined total above eight is the natural baseline.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Everton or Draw

1.35fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 74.1%

−14.1ppshort

Everton are hard to beat at home and Newcastle's away form is all-or-nothing, so covering the draw alongside a home win is the sensible shape.

Away Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Newcastle under 1.5

1.45fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 69%

−2.0ppshort

Newcastle's away scoring is roughly one goal per game and Everton's home defence is the strongest part of their team, so keeping the visitors to one or none is the base case.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Everton are hard to beat at home and Newcastle's away form is all-or-nothing, so covering the draw alongside a home win is the sensible shape.
- Everton home record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 5
- Everton home concede 0.8 goals per game with 3 clean sheets
- Newcastle away: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses in 5
- Newcastle conceded four goals in two of their last six away/league games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonEverton or DrawEstimated chance60%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both teams start slowly and Newcastle have not scored a first-half away goal in this sample, so the opening 45 minutes look short on goals.
- Everton first half: 0.3 scored, 0.2 conceded per game across 10
- Everton at home first half: 0.4 scored, 0.0 conceded across 5
- Newcastle away first half: 0.0 scored, 0.8 conceded across 5
- Newcastle overall first half: 0.5 scored, 0.8 conceded across 10
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Everton's matches are consistently low-scoring and they keep clean sheets often at home, while Newcastle have blanked in several recent outings.
- Everton both teams scored in only 3 of 10 matches
- Everton at home: both teams scored in 1 of 5
- Everton kept 5 clean sheets in 10, 3 in 5 at home
- Newcastle failed to score in 3 of their last 6
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Everton's games are among the lowest-scoring in the sample and their home matches rarely produce three goals, so a tight cup tie is the likelier shape.
- Everton total: 7 scored, 5 conceded across 10 competitive games
- Everton home: 4 scored, 2 conceded across 5
- Newcastle away: 5 scored, 2 conceded in 5
- Five of Everton's last six games finished under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Newcastle's away scoring is roughly one goal per game and Everton's home defence is the strongest part of their team, so keeping the visitors to one or none is the base case.
- Newcastle away: 5 goals scored in 5 matches
- Everton home: 2 goals conceded in 5, with 3 clean sheets
- Newcastle failed to score in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Newcastle's away goals came in bursts rather than steady accumulation
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonNewcastle under 1.5Estimated chance67%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Everton are a steady corner producer at home and Newcastle's away defending concedes a healthy supply, so the home side clearing four corners is well within their normal range.
- Everton average 5.0 corners per match over 10 games
- Everton average 4.6 corners in 5 home games
- Newcastle concede 4.7 corners per match over 10
- Everton took 5-6 corners in several recent home matches
BetBugs · Home CornerswonEverton over 3.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams sit near five corners each per match and their opponents concede similar numbers, so a combined total above eight is the natural baseline.
- Everton matches average 10.3 corners combined (5.0 for, 5.3 against)
- Newcastle matches average 10.4 corners combined (5.7 for, 4.7 against)
- Newcastle took 15 corners in one League Cup away tie
- Everton took 6 corners in their League Cup home win over Wolves
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides generate modest on-target volume and concede little, so combined accurate shooting landing under ten is the more likely outcome.
- Everton matches: 5.4 shots on target for, 3.7 against (9.1 combined)
- Newcastle matches: 4.0 for, 4.6 against (8.6 combined)
- Everton managed 2-3 shots on target in several recent league games
- Newcastle registered 1-2 shots on target in two of their last four
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both squads pick up cards at a healthy rate and a sold-out knockout tie between these sides tends to be officiated with more friction.
- Newcastle matches average 4.8 yellow cards combined (2.5 own, 2.3 opponent)
- Everton matches average 3.9 (1.8 own, 2.1 opponent)
- Recent Newcastle games produced 6 and 8 cards
- Everton's recent away games produced 4, 7 and 5 cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance56%