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Predictions graded

Leeds United4Newcastle1

HT 3–0Mon 14 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–4–160%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 15–7On targetOn target 6–5CornersCorners 5–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 06:53 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is backing the draw at 3.40, with our model estimating a 34% chance versus the implied 29%.

Leeds' defensive injuries and cup fatigue add risk, but recent H2H trends support a tight, shared-points outcome. Avoid over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, as the odds offer no edge.

Context

Leeds United defender Joe Rodon has started four of the last five available fixtures, but he is now ruled out with a hamstring injury expected to keep him out for eight to ten weeks.
His absence removes a regular central-defence option and forces Leeds to reorganise their back line against Newcastle. Farke has already mentioned the possibility of using James Justin in central defence, which suggests a reshaped pairing and a different defensive structure than the one used in recent league matches.
- Farke said Rodon has a hamstring injury and is expected to be out for eight to 10 weeks.
- Farke said Rodon would not play before the next international break and linked the injury to a possible need for James Justin in central defence.
- J. Rodon started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 06:52 · Europe/BucharestLeeds United: Daniel Farke provides fitness update ahead of Brighton clashwww.leedsunited.com · 3 Sep 2026Leeds United: Daniel Farke provides fitness update ahead of Chelsea clashwww.leedsunited.com · 8 Sep 2026
Newcastle are 7th in the Premier League with 5 points from 3 matches.
Their away record is strong: they beat Tottenham 2-0 on 29 August, keeping a clean sheet. That result suggests they can perform away from home, but it is only one match, so it is not a guarantee for this game.
- Newcastle won 2-0 at Tottenham on 2026-08-29.
- Newcastle have 1 win and 0 draws in 1 away league match this season.
Leeds attacker Daniel James reported back and hamstring discomfort during the Brighton warm-up, and his scan was clear but his availability remains dependent on completing sessions before the Chelsea cup tie.
James has started only one of the last five available fixtures, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin often taking that attacking role. If James cannot prove his fitness, Leeds may again turn to Calvert-Lewin, but the final decision will only become clear after the midweek cup match.
- Farke said James reported back and hamstring issues during the Brighton warm-up.
- Farke said the scan was clear and James had completed an individual session, while remaining cautiously optimistic for Chelsea.
- D. James started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- D. Calvert-Lewin started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when D. James did not start.
To watchSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 06:52 · Europe/BucharestLeeds United: Daniel Farke provides fitness update ahead of Chelsea clashwww.leedsunited.com · 8 Sep 2026
Leeds are 9th in the Premier League with 5 points from 3 matches.
They have drawn their last two league matches, both 1-1. This shows they are competitive but not winning consistently. However, they are unbeaten, so they are still difficult to beat.
- Leeds drew 1-1 with Brighton on 2026-09-05.
- Leeds drew 1-1 with Brentford on 2026-08-30.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Leeds United or Draw

1.43fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Leeds' solid recent form and home advantage make them unlikely to lose, while Newcastle's tendency to draw increases the chance of a shared result.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average 1.7 goals scored and recent H2H meetings have produced goals, but the edge is negative.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.60fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both attacks are in decent form but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.29fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown a tendency to be involved in first-half goals, but the odds are heavily skewed.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are unbeaten in the league and recent H2H meetings have been tight, with three draws in the last five, supporting a stalemate.
- Leeds home record this season: 0W-1D-0L (1-1 vs Brentford)
- Newcastle away record this season: 1W-0D-0L (2-0 at Tottenham)
- H2H last 5: 3 draws, 1 Newcastle win, 1 Leeds win
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leeds' solid recent form and home advantage make them unlikely to lose, while Newcastle's tendency to draw increases the chance of a shared result.
- Leeds are unbeaten in their last 5 Premier League matches (2W, 3D)
- Newcastle have drawn 2 of their 3 league games this season
- Leeds have lost only 1 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLeeds United or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half records and often go into the break level, making a draw the most likely half-time result.
- Leeds led at half-time in 33% of recent matches, trailed in 20%
- Newcastle led at half-time in 27% of recent matches, trailed in 40%
- H2H last 5: 2 matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is a plausible outcome given the teams' recent tendency to share points, though the probability remains low.
- Leeds have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches
- Newcastle have drawn 2 of their last 3 league matches
- H2H last 5: 3 draws overall
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been scoring regularly and their recent meetings have produced goals, suggesting an open game with over 2.5 goals.
- Leeds average 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match in last 15
- Newcastle average 1.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match in last 15
- H2H last 5: 3 matches had 3+ goals, including a 4-3 Newcastle win
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks are in decent form and neither defence has been watertight, making it likely that both teams find the net.
- Leeds have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches
- Newcastle have scored in all 3 league games this season
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown a tendency to be involved in first-half goals, with Newcastle especially vulnerable early, supporting at least one goal before the break.
- Leeds average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded in last 15
- Newcastle average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded in last 15
- Newcastle trailed at half-time in 40% of recent matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and recent meetings have seen late goals, but the probability is only slightly above even.
- Leeds average 1.1 second-half goals scored per match (total 1.7 - 0.6 first half)
- Newcastle average 1.0 second-half goals scored per match (total 1.7 - 0.7 first half)
- H2H last 5: 3 matches had 2+ second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance48%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average is just above the 9.5 line, making over slightly more likely.
- Leeds average 3.8 corners for and 6.2 against in last 15
- Newcastle average 5.8 corners for and 4.5 against in last 15
- Combined average corners per match: 10.0
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderpushOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average shots on target is just below the line, but both teams have shown the ability to test the goalkeeper, making this a coin flip.
- Leeds average 3.7 shots on target per match
- Newcastle average 4.7 shots on target per match
- Combined average shots on target: 8.4
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams pick up around two yellow cards per game, and the combined average exceeds the 3.5 line, suggesting a card-heavy match.
- Leeds average 2.0 yellow cards per match
- Newcastle average 2.1 yellow cards per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.1
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 70% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Leeds United has been highly reliable when projected to see over 2.5 goals

Leeds United has fulfilled 4 of 5 recent over 2.5 goals projections. The average estimated probability was 57.4%, with an expected 2.9 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment exceeded expectation. Matched predictions had a lower average probability (55.5%) than the single missed prediction (65%), suggesting the model was more confident in the one that failed.

Recent evidence for Leeds United5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 May·Premier League