Crystal Palace0Newcastle2

HT 0–0Sun 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges2–625%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 17–10On targetOn target 4–2CornersCorners 7–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 21:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Palace's home scoring meets a Newcastle side with one away league win and eight goals conceded in three.

Palace to win or draw is the likelier result, but 1.62 for it offers no clear advantage. Three prices do: Palace to score twice or more at 2.1, Newcastle to be held to one goal or fewer at 1.91, and Newcastle to take four or more corners at 1.35.

Context

The immediate anchor is Palace’s 5-0 loss at Brighton and the chairman’s warning to Sage afterwards. That places unusually direct scrutiny on the home manager for this fixture, making any selection or tactical response more consequential than in a routine league game. The available evidence does not identify a specific lineup or tactical change, so it does not establish how Palace will alter their approach.
- Crystal Palace lost 5-0 at Brighton before this fixture.
- Steve Parish warned Pierre Sage that improved results were required quickly to keep his job.
- The Newcastle match is pivotal to Sage’s immediate situation.
ReportedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 21:37 · Europe/BucharestThe Guardianwww.theguardian.com · 23 Oct 2026
Newcastle’s new manager arrived from Al-Ahli for £9.5m compensation and is managing a squad with several injuries. That combination can constrain preparation and selection for an away league fixture while the new coaching setup is still taking shape. The available evidence does not name the injured players or establish which absences affect the expected XI.
- Newcastle paid Al-Ahli £9.5m compensation for Matthias Jaissle.
- Jaissle is new to the Premier League.
- Newcastle have several injuries in their squad before the Palace match.
ReportedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 21:37 · Europe/BucharestThe Guardianwww.theguardian.com · 23 Oct 2026
Palace's home scoring is the main reason they carry the likelier result: they found the net in all six of those matches against a Newcastle side that has conceded eight in three away league games. Those six home matches also brought two defeats and 1.5 goals conceded per game, so the record is productive rather than airtight.
- Crystal Palace's six tracked home matches from 31 July to 11 October 2026 produced four wins, two defeats, 2.67 goals scored per game and 1.5 conceded per game.
- Palace scored in all six of those home matches and kept two clean sheets.
Newcastle's away goals have all come after the break, which points to Palace being level or ahead at the interval rather than an open start. Palace average 1.5 first-half goals at home and concede 0.83. It is a four-match sample, though, and Newcastle won two of those games.
- Newcastle's four tracked away matches between 29 August and 12 October 2026 produced 1.25 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game, with a first-half goals-for average of 0.
- Newcastle won two of those four away matches, including 1-0 at Millwall on 8 September 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Palace score reliably at Selhurst Park, while Newcastle have been leaking goals on the road and rebuilt their midfield this summer.
- Crystal Palace have won 4 and lost 2 of 6 tracked home matches, averaging 2.67 goals scored at home.
- Newcastle's away league record is 1 win, 0 draws, 2 defeats, with 8 goals conceded in 3.
- Palace are unbeaten in the last three home meetings with Newcastle (2 wins, 1 draw).
- Newcastle sold Tonali, Gordon and Guimaraes in the summer; only one of eight signings had Premier League experience.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCrystal Palace or DrawEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Newcastle start away games slowly, so Palace are more likely to be level or ahead at the interval.
- Palace have won first halves 2-1 against Forest and 3-0 against Lech Poznan at home, averaging 1.5 first-half goals there.
- Newcastle have scored no first-half goals in 4 away matches and concede 1.0 per away first half.
- Palace concede only 0.83 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCrystal Palace or DrawEstimated chance65%

Goals0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams are open and concede regularly, and their recent matches have produced goals at both ends.
- Crystal Palace's 12 competitive matches average 3.83 total goals, with both teams scoring in 7.
- Palace's home matches average 4.17 goals (2.67 for, 1.5 against).
- Newcastle's away matches average 3.25 goals, including 4-1 defeats at Leeds and Coventry.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Palace almost always score at home, and Newcastle have found the net in every away game tracked so far.
- Palace scored in all 6 tracked home matches.
- Newcastle scored in all 4 tracked away matches.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Palace's 12 and 6 of Newcastle's 9 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Palace have scored multiple goals at home against open opposition, and Newcastle's away defence has been generous.
- Palace average 2.67 goals per home match across 6 games.
- In league home games Palace have scored 6 in 3.
- Newcastle concede 2.0 goals per away match (8 in 4), including 4-1 defeats at Leeds and Coventry.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostCrystal Palace over 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Newcastle's away scoring is modest and slow to arrive, making a haul of two or more goals less likely.
- Newcastle average 1.25 goals in 4 away matches, scoring 4 in 3 league away games.
- Newcastle average 0.56 first-half goals and have not scored a first-half goal away from home.
- Palace kept clean sheets in 2 of 6 home matches and 3 of 12 overall.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostNewcastle under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams' recent first halves have usually contained at least one goal, and Newcastle regularly trail early on the road.
- Palace's 6 tracked first halves produced 12 goals (1.5 for, 0.83 against), with a goal in 5 of 6.
- Newcastle's last six first halves produced 10 goals, with a goal in 5 of 6.
- Newcastle concede 1.0 first-half goals per away match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Newcastle generate a steady stream of corners away from home, and Palace's habit of conceding territory should keep that supply going.
- Newcastle average 8.25 corners in 4 away matches, including 15 at Millwall and 6 at Coventry.
- Palace concede 5.18 corners per match overall and 5.6 at home.
- Palace themselves take only 3.18 corners per match, so play is often in their defensive third.
BetBugs · Away CornerswonNewcastle over 3.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides allow plenty of attempts and take a fair number themselves, so the shot count should clear the line.
- Palace's matches average 26.3 total shots (10.45 for, 15.82 against).
- Newcastle's matches average 30.0 total shots (14.1 for, 15.9 against).
- Palace home games average 28.8 shots; Newcastle away games average 27.75.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 24.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
All four venue splits sit at or above the line, reflecting two defences that allow regular work for the goalkeeper.
- Palace's matches average 9.36 shots on target (4.0 for, 5.36 against).
- Newcastle's matches average 8.89 shots on target (4.22 for, 4.67 against).
- Palace home games average 10.8 shots on target; Newcastle away games 9.75.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance60%

Prediction history

Crystal Palace: 5/5 recent goals projections matched

5 of 5 comparable goals projections involving Crystal Palace matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Crystal Palace5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

13 May·Premier League