Bournemouth3Aston Villa0

HT 1–0Wed 28 Oct 2026, 19:45 Predictions graded

Predictions5–271%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 19–17On targetOn target 7–5CornersCorners 6–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 03:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Bournemouth have kept four clean sheets in seven home matches, conceding 0.57 goals per game, but Villa arrive off wins over Manchester City, Newcastle and Tottenham.

Bournemouth to score twice at 1.95 is the price that holds up, with under 10.5 corners at 1.55 a thinner edge; Bournemouth to avoid defeat at 1.4, over 2.5 goals at 1.62 and Villa to score at 1.3 are all too short.

Context

BeanymanSports published Rose’s rotation answer two days before the tie. The Bournemouth head coach’s stated approach makes a wholesale deprioritisation of the fourth-round match less likely and keeps team selection relevant to the fixture assessment. His comment establishes intent rather than a lineup, so it does not identify which regulars will start.
- On 26 October, BeanymanSports posted Marco Rose’s response to a question about Bournemouth rotation for the Aston Villa cup tie.
- Rose said: “I never will throw a game away.”
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Oct 2026, 03:56 · Europe/Bucharest
Paul M. Banks’ 26 October report specifically forecasts Aston Villa rotation for this trip. Changes from the side that beat Manchester City on 24 October could materially alter Villa’s selection for the cup match. The report provides no projected XI or club confirmation, so this remains an uncertainty to monitor rather than an established lineup change.
- Paul M. Banks published a 26 October report headed “Unai Emery Likely to Rotate His Aston Villa Side at AFC Bournemouth.”
- The post did not identify players expected to start or rest.
To watchSources checked 27 Oct 2026, 03:56 · Europe/Bucharest
Aston Villa carrying a recent four-goal win over this opponent into the cup tie.
That November afternoon is the clearest recent evidence that Villa can turn this fixture one-sided, and it came with a clean sheet. Bournemouth's counterweight is a home record of seven matches with four clean sheets and 0.57 goals conceded per game, so the same opponent looks far less comfortable away from Villa Park. The most recent meeting, at Bournemouth on 7 February 2026, finished 1-1.
- 9 November 2025: Aston Villa 4-0 Bournemouth, Premier League, Villa Park.
- Bournemouth were the away side and conceded four without scoring.
Bournemouth's defensive record in front of their own crowd this season.
The volume is unusual: three goals against in seven home games means Villa will need patience to break through. It also explains why a Bournemouth clean sheet is a live part of this tie. The counterpoint is that four of these seven opponents did not score at all, so the sample contains little evidence of how Bournemouth cope when an away side scores first.
- Seven home matches, 29 August to 22 October 2026: 4W-2D-1L.
- 2.14 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per home match, four clean sheets in seven.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Bournemouth or Draw

1.40fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 71.4%

−8.4ppshort

Bournemouth's home solidity and stated intent make them hard to beat in normal time.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Bournemouth's home solidity and stated intent make them hard to beat in normal time.
- Bournemouth are 4W-2D-1L at home, averaging 2.14 goals for and 0.57 against.
- Aston Villa are 4W-1D-2L away, averaging 1.57 goals for and 1.57 against.
- Bournemouth have won their last three home matches without conceding.
- Marco Rose said Bournemouth will not throw the cup tie away, indicating serious intent.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBournemouth or DrawEstimated chance63%

Goals2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both sides carry scoring form and average more than three combined goals per competitive match.
- Bournemouth's competitive matches average 3.17 total goals (2.00 for, 1.17 against).
- Aston Villa's competitive matches average 3.31 total goals (1.92 for, 1.38 against).
- Bournemouth home matches average 2.14 goals for; Villa away matches average 1.57 goals for.
- Five of Aston Villa's last six matches produced three or more goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Bournemouth's home scoring volume makes two goals a realistic baseline.
- Bournemouth have scored in 11 of 12 competitive matches and in six of seven at home.
- Bournemouth average 2.14 home goals.
- Aston Villa concede 1.57 goals per away match and kept only two clean sheets in seven away games.
- Bournemouth scored at least twice in three of their last four home matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBournemouth over 1.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Villa have scored in most away games and usually find at least one goal.
- Aston Villa have scored in 10 of 13 competitive matches and in five of seven away matches.
- Villa average 1.57 goals per away match.
- Bournemouth conceded in three of seven home matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostAston Villa over 0.5Estimated chance73%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both teams' home and away corner totals sit below the 10.5 line on average.
- Bournemouth home matches average 9.14 total corners (6.14 for, 3.00 against).
- Aston Villa away matches average 8.14 total corners (4.00 for, 4.14 against).
- Bournemouth overall matches average 9.33 corners; Villa overall matches average 8.85.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shot-on-target averages are around or below the 10.5 line, with Bournemouth allowing little at home.
- Bournemouth home matches average 8.43 total shots on target (6.43 for, 2.00 against).
- Aston Villa away matches average 9.71 total shots on target (4.57 for, 5.14 against).
- Bournemouth overall matches average 8.58 shots on target; Villa overall matches average 10.00.
- Bournemouth's home opponents average only 2.00 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' card averages point to a match around the 4.5 line, with recent games running hot.
- Bournemouth average 2.67 yellow cards and their opponents 2.17.
- Aston Villa away matches average 2.29 yellow cards for and 2.43 for opponents.
- Bournemouth home matches average 2.71 yellow cards and 2.29 for opponents.
- Recent Villa matches against Manchester City and Brentford produced eight and seven yellow cards respectively.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Bournemouth: 2/5 recent goals projections matched

2 of 5 comparable goals projections involving Bournemouth matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Bournemouth5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 May·Premier League