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Predictions graded

Newcastle1Bournemouth2

HT 0–1Sat 18 Apr 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 12–12On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 2–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Apr 2026, 15:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Newcastle face Bournemouth while depleted (Schar hospitalized, Guimarães doubtful, Joelinton suspended), in managerial crisis at 14th place with no objective remaining; Bournemouth have won 4-1 and 3-1 at St James' Park in their last two visits and are unbeaten in five.

Back Double Chance (Draw or Bournemouth) at 1.70 (+9.2pt edge) or Bournemouth Win at 3.20 (+8.7pt edge) as the primary plays; Over 2.5 Goals at 1.55 holds conviction but is fairly priced.

Context

Newcastle average 2.0 first-half goals involvement (1.1 scored, 0.9 conceded) over last 10
- 4 of last 5 H2H meetings produced at least 1 first-half goal
- Newcastle leading at HT 40% and trailing 30% — 70% of games have FH goals
Newcastle score 1.81 goals/home game this season (29 GF in 16 home matches)
- Newcastle scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
Newcastle 14th, 14 league defeats, manager under severe pressure — confirmed Apr 2026
- Newcastle missing 3+ key players vs Bournemouth's relatively intact squad
Last 2 PL meetings at SJP produced 5 and 4 goals respectively
- Newcastle conceding 2.3 goals/game over last 10 matches with a leaky defense

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bournemouth's dominant H2H at St James' Park (7 goals in 2 visits), combined with Newcastle's severe personnel losses in midfield/defense and dead-rubber motivation, gives Bournemouth a clear edge despite being away.
- Bournemouth won last 2 PL visits to St James' Park 4-1 and 3-1 (Jan 2025, 2025/26)
- Newcastle missing Joelinton (suspended), Schar (surgery), Bruno Guimarães (doubtful) — 3 key players
- Newcastle form LLWWL last 5, sitting 14th with managerial turmoil confirmed Apr 2026
- Bournemouth conceding just 0.8 goals/game over last 10 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBournemouthEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Newcastle's complete inability to beat Bournemouth in the last 5 encounters (0 wins), compounded by their worst personnel crisis of the season and a dead-rubber motivational context, makes a Bournemouth win or draw the most probable combined outcome.
- Newcastle have not beaten Bournemouth in last 5 meetings (0W, 3D, 2L)
- Newcastle 14th, 14 league defeats, manager under severe pressure — confirmed Apr 2026
- Newcastle missing 3+ key players vs Bournemouth's relatively intact squad
- Bournemouth unbeaten in last 5 PL matches (WDDDD form)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or BournemouthEstimated chance68%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Newcastle's porous defense (2.3 GA/10 games), exacerbated by Schar and potentially Bruno absences, combined with explosive H2H scoring at SJP (avg 4.5 goals last 2 home H2H), strongly supports Over 2.5.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 2-2, 0-0, 1-4, 1-1, 2-2 — 3 of 5 went over 2.5
- Last 2 PL meetings at SJP produced 5 and 4 goals respectively
- Newcastle conceding 2.3 goals/game over last 10 matches with a leaky defense
- Newcastle home record: 29 GF and 26 GA in 16 home games (3.44 goals/home game)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Newcastle's ability to score at home (1.81/game) against Bournemouth's vulnerable away defense (2.0 GA/away game), combined with H2H pattern of both teams scoring in 4 of 5 recent meetings, supports BTTS Yes.
- 4 of last 5 H2H meetings saw both teams score (exception: 0-0 in Sep 2025)
- Newcastle score 1.81 goals/home game this season (29 in 16)
- Bournemouth concede 2.0 goals/away game this season (32 in 16 away)
- Newcastle averaging 1.5 GF and 2.3 GA over last 10 — scoring but also conceding heavily
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Newcastle's high first-half goal involvement (2.0 combined FH goals avg) and H2H pattern of early goals (4/5 meetings had FH goals) strongly supports at least one goal before halftime.
- Newcastle average 2.0 first-half goals involvement (1.1 scored, 0.9 conceded) over last 10
- 4 of last 5 H2H meetings produced at least 1 first-half goal
- Newcastle leading at HT 40% and trailing 30% — 70% of games have FH goals
- Bournemouth's last 3 away games all had first-half goals (1-1 HT vs Arsenal, 0-0 vs Burnley, 0-1 vs Sunderland)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bournemouth's leaky away defense (2.0 GA/away game) combined with Newcastle's consistent home scoring (1.81/game) and the H2H pattern of Newcastle scoring in 4 of 5 meetings makes a Bournemouth clean sheet very unlikely.
- Bournemouth concede 2.0 goals/away game this season (32 GA in 16 away matches)
- Newcastle score 1.81 goals/home game this season (29 GF in 16 home matches)
- Newcastle scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Bournemouth kept only 1 clean sheet in last 5 H2H encounters
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNewcastle to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bournemouth's explosive scoring record at SJP (7 goals in 2 visits), Newcastle's defensive vulnerability (2.3 GA recent average) worsened by Schar absence and potential Bruno absence, supports Bournemouth scoring 2+ goals.
- Bournemouth scored 4 and 3 goals in their last 2 PL visits to St James' Park
- Newcastle conceding 2.3 goals/game over last 10 matches across all comps
- Newcastle home GA: 26 in 16 home games = 1.63 GA/home game this season
- Bournemouth average 1.56 goals/away game this season (25 in 16)
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBournemouth over 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages of 10.4 from both teams' recent 10-game samples, bolstered by Newcastle's tendency to generate high corner counts at home (9 vs Sunderland), narrowly favors Over 9.5 total corners.
- Newcastle average 5.1 corners per game over last 10 matches
- Bournemouth average 5.3 corners per game over last 10 matches
- Combined average of 10.4 corners suggests marginally above the 9.5 line
- Newcastle's last home PL match (vs Sunderland): 9 corners for Newcastle alone, 14 total
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
A combined yellow card average of 4.4 per game from both teams' recent form, in a rivalry where Newcastle are frustrated and under pressure, supports Over 3.5 total cards.
- Newcastle average 2.4 yellows/game over last 10 matches
- Bournemouth average 2.0 yellows/game over last 10 matches
- Combined average of 4.4 yellow cards comfortably exceeds 3.5 threshold
- Bournemouth received 3 yellows in their most recent match (vs Arsenal away)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' SOT averages combine to nearly 10 per game, and the open, goals-heavy nature of recent H2H encounters at SJP suggests ample shot-on-target production exceeding 7.5.
- Newcastle average 5.2 SOT per game over last 10 matches
- Bournemouth average 4.5 SOT per game over last 10 matches
- Combined average: 9.7 SOT — well above the 7.5 line
- Last H2H at SJP (1-3): combined 7+ SOT from both teams in an open contest
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

0W · 4D · 1W

D2-2NewcastlevBournemouthJan 10, 2026FAC

D0-0BournemouthvNewcastleSep 21, 2025PL

L1-4NewcastlevBournemouthJan 18, 2025PL

D1-1BournemouthvNewcastleAug 25, 2024PL

D2-2NewcastlevBournemouthFeb 17, 2024PL

Bournemouth unbeaten in 5 meetings3 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier League 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	Newcastle	32	12	6	14	45-47	42	LLWWL
11	Bournemouth	32	10	15	7	48-49	45	WDDDD

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Newcastle

L1-2Crystal PalaceApr 12PL

L1-2SunderlandMar 22PL

L2-7BarcelonaMar 18UEF

W1-0ChelseaMar 14PL

D1-1BarcelonaMar 10UEF

L1-3Manchester CityMar 7FAC

W2-1Manchester UnitedMar 4PL

L2-3EvertonFeb 28PL

W3-2QarabagFeb 24UEF

L1-2Manchester CityFeb 21PL

Bournemouth

W2-1ArsenalApr 11PL

D2-2Manchester UnitedMar 20PL

D0-0BurnleyMar 14PL

D0-0BrentfordMar 3PL

D1-1SunderlandFeb 28PL

D0-0West HamFeb 21PL

W2-1EvertonFeb 10PL

D1-1Aston VillaFeb 7PL

W2-0WolvesJan 31PL

W3-2LiverpoolJan 24PL

Squad & Injuries

Newcastle

8 out

Attackers5

Midfielders4/11

×#7

×#39

×#7

×#39

Defenders4/10

×#17

×#5

×#17

×#5

Goalkeeper5

#7 Joelinton — Yellow Cards

#17 E. Krafth — Knee Injury

#5 F. Schar — Ankle Injury

#39 Bruno Guimaraes — Muscle Injury

#7 Joelinton — Yellow Cards

#17 E. Krafth — Knee Injury

#5 F. Schar — Ankle Injury

#39 Bruno Guimaraes — Muscle Injury

Bournemouth

6 out

Attackers2/6

×#19

Midfielders2/12

×#4

Defenders2/8

×#6

Goalkeeper3

#4 L. Cook — Hamstring Injury

#19 J. Kluivert — Knee Injury

#6 J. Soler — Hamstring Injury

#4 L. Cook — Hamstring Injury

#19 J. Kluivert — Knee Injury

#6 J. Soler — Hamstring Injury

Newcastle1Bournemouth2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Bournemouth

Bournemouth

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Under 11.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 2 landed

Goals5 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Newcastle

Bournemouth

Squad & Injuries

Newcastle

Bournemouth