Premier LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Nottingham Forest1Bournemouth1

HT 1–0Sun 24 May 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 15–17On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 May 2026, 18:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Bournemouth are unbeaten in seven Premier League H2Hs and face a Forest side in disarray after three managerial changes.

The double chance (Draw or Bournemouth) is the safest play, but the standout value is Draw/Bournemouth in the half-time/full-time market at 5.25, with a +6pt edge. Steer clear of short-priced goals markets, which offer negative value.

Context

Bournemouth have 4 wins and 3 draws in the last 7 Premier League H2Hs.
- The last two H2Hs were 2-0 and 5-0 Bournemouth wins.
- Forest have 0 home wins in the last 3 league H2Hs at the City Ground.
Sean Dyche was Forest's third managerial exit of 2025/26 after just 114 days.
- Nuno Espirito Santo was sacked on 9 Sep 2025 after a public fallout with the owner.
- The club's season review highlighted repeated managerial churn as a key factor in their struggles.
Dyche said Forest 'never got to grips with' Bournemouth's high press in the 2-0 loss on 26 Oct 2025.
- Bournemouth's pressing style has been a consistent tactical strength this season.
- Forest have struggled against high-pressing teams, especially at home.
Forest's home record: 4 wins, 7 draws, 7 losses in 18 matches.
- They have scored only 19 goals at home, averaging 1.06 per game.
- Only 22% of home games ended with a clean sheet.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.53fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Recent form and H2H history show a consistent pattern of higher-scoring games, making Over 2.5 goals probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bournemouth's strong H2H dominance and Forest's poor home form, combined with managerial instability, give Bournemouth a clear edge.
- Bournemouth are unbeaten in the last 7 Premier League H2Hs (4W 3D), including 2-0 and 5-0 wins in the last two meetings.
- Nottingham Forest have 0 home wins in the last 3 league H2Hs at the City Ground.
- Forest's home record this season: 4W 7D 7L, only 19 goals scored in 18 home matches.
- Bournemouth's away record: 6W 7D 5L, with 28 goals scored in 18 away games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBournemouthEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Bournemouth's unbeaten H2H run and Forest's weak home form, a Bournemouth win or draw is highly likely.
- Bournemouth have avoided defeat in all 7 recent Premier League H2Hs.
- Forest have won only 4 of 18 home league games this season.
- Bournemouth have lost only 5 of 18 away league games this season.
- Forest's season has been destabilized by three managerial changes.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or BournemouthEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high half-time draw rates, and the match is likely to be tight early on.
- Forest have drawn at half-time in 40% of matches (6 of 15).
- Bournemouth have drawn at half-time in 47% of matches (7 of 15).
- In the last 5 H2Hs, 2 were draws at half-time.
- Both teams average similar first-half goal rates (0.7 vs 0.5).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bournemouth's stronger second-half performances and H2H dominance suggest they could edge the second period.
- Bournemouth have won the second half in 5 of their last 15 matches, losing only 3.
- Forest have lost the second half in 6 of their last 15 matches.
- Bournemouth's second-half goal difference is +0.5, Forest's is +0.4.
- H2H: Bournemouth have outscored Forest 7-2 in the second half over the last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableBournemouthEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Bournemouth win is a plausible scenario given both teams' patterns.
- Forest have drawn at half-time in 40% of matches, Bournemouth in 47%.
- Bournemouth have won 35% of their matches overall.
- H2H: In 2 of the last 5 meetings, the half-time result was a draw and Bournemouth won the match.
- Forest have lost 43% of their matches this season.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/BournemouthEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent form and H2H history show a consistent pattern of higher-scoring games, making Over 2.5 goals probable.
- Forest's last 5 matches: 3.2 total goals per game on average.
- Bournemouth's last 5 matches: 2.6 total goals per game on average.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3.2 total goals per game, with 4 of 5 seeing Over 2.5.
- Forest concede 1.1 goals per game overall, Bournemouth score 1.5 per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have been finding the net regularly, and Forest's defensive vulnerabilities at home suggest both teams will score.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- Forest have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Bournemouth have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Forest's home clean sheet rate is only 22% (4 of 18 home games).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see early goals, and H2H history supports at least one first-half goal.
- Forest's first-half goals per game: 0.7, first-half goals conceded: 0.5.
- Bournemouth's first-half goals per game: 0.5, first-half goals conceded: 0.3.
- In the last 5 H2Hs, 4 matches had a first-half goal.
- Forest have trailed at half-time in 33% of matches, Bournemouth have led in 33%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring trends are moderate, but the data suggests a reasonable chance of at least two second-half goals.
- Forest's second-half goal difference is +0.4 per game (1.0 scored, 0.6 conceded).
- Bournemouth's second-half goal difference is +0.5 per game (1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded).
- In the last 5 H2Hs, 3 matches had Over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Both teams average over 1.0 second-half goals per game in recent form.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages and H2H data hover around the 9.5 line, making Over 9.5 a borderline but reasonable pick.
- Forest average 4.3 corners per game, Bournemouth average 5.6.
- Combined average corners per game: 9.9.
- In the last 5 H2Hs, total corners were 13, 11, 8, 9, 10 (average 10.2).
- Both teams' recent matches show consistent corner counts around 9-10.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The disciplinary records and H2H trends suggest a moderately high chance of at least 4 cards.
- Forest average 1.6 yellow cards per game, Bournemouth average 2.2.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.8 per game.
- In the last 5 H2Hs, total cards were 4, 3, 5, 4, 2 (average 3.6).
- Both teams have seen Over 3.5 cards in 60% of their recent matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

L2-0BournemouthvNottingham ForestOct 26, 2025PL

L5-0BournemouthvNottingham ForestJan 25, 2025PL

D1-1Nottingham ForestvBournemouthAug 17, 2024PL

D1-1BournemouthvNottingham ForestFeb 4, 2024PL

L2-3Nottingham ForestvBournemouthDec 23, 2023PL

Bournemouth unbeaten in 5 meetingsBournemouth: 2 clean sheets3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier League 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Nottingham Forest	37	11	10	16	47-50	43	LDWWW
6	Bournemouth Promotion - Europa League (League phase)	37	13	17	7	57-53	56	DWWDW

13pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Nottingham Forest

L2-3Manchester UnitedMay 17PL

D1-1NewcastleMay 10PL

L0-4Aston VillaMay 7UEF

W3-1ChelseaMay 4PL

W1-0Aston VillaApr 30UEF

W5-0SunderlandApr 24PL

W4-1BurnleyApr 19PL

W1-0FC PortoApr 16UEF

D1-1Aston VillaApr 12PL

D1-1FC PortoApr 9UEF

W3-0TottenhamMar 22PL

D0-0FulhamMar 15PL

L0-1FC MidtjyllandMar 12UEF

D2-2Manchester CityMar 4PL

L1-2BrightonMar 1PL

Bournemouth

D1-1Manchester CityMay 19PL

W1-0FulhamMay 9PL

W3-0Crystal PalaceMay 3PL

D2-2LeedsApr 22PL

W2-1NewcastleApr 18PL

W2-1ArsenalApr 11PL

D2-2Manchester UnitedMar 20PL

D0-0BurnleyMar 14PL

D0-0BrentfordMar 3PL

D1-1SunderlandFeb 28PL

D0-0West HamFeb 21PL

W2-1EvertonFeb 10PL

D1-1Aston VillaFeb 7PL

W2-0WolvesJan 31PL

W3-2LiverpoolJan 24PL

Squad & Injuries

Nottingham Forest

35 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders12

Goalkeeper6

Bournemouth

28 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Bournemouth

Draw at half-time / Bournemouth at full-time

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Nottingham Forest

Bournemouth

Squad & Injuries

Nottingham Forest

Bournemouth