Vasas SC0Paks2

HT 0–0Sun 25 Oct 2026, 12:15 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 9–14On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 5–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 00:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Fourth plays seventh with a single point between them, and Vasas' home scoring (11 goals in five league games) against Paks' away defending is the central tension.

Both teams scoring is the best-supported reading; Paks have found the net in each of their last six matches. Every quoted price asks for more than the form justifies, including Vasas to win or draw at 1.45, both teams to score at 1.38 and over 2.5 goals at 1.38.

Context

Paks scored five at Vasas in that April 2024 cup tie and also won 3-2 there in the league in March 2023. The wider series is not one-way, though: Vasas won three of the five listed meetings, all of them away from home. The most recent meeting is also more than two years old, so it frames the fixture without setting the terms for this one.
- 3 April 2024, Magyar Kupa: Vasas 2-5 Paks.
- Paks scored five away from home in that tie, the latest meeting on the head-to-head list.
Vasas put 22 shots at Kisvarda, seven of them on target, and led the corner count 8-2 but still drew 1-1. It is a single match, yet it fits their home profile: 11 goals in five league home games, with just one clean sheet in those five. Paks concede regularly on the road, which is why the home side's shot volume is the likelier route to goals here.
- 10 October 2026, NB I: Vasas 1-1 Kisvarda, with 22 shots to 7 and 8 corners to 2.
- Vasas recorded seven shots on target to Kisvarda's four in that match.
- Vasas' league home record: 11 goals scored and six conceded in five games.
Paks had 22 shots and eight corners to none against Gyori ETO and still lost 1-2, managing only four on target while conceding six. A week earlier they beat MTK Budapest 3-0 with 20 shots and seven on target. The contrast is finishing and shot quality rather than territory, which makes their scoring threat real but uneven.
- 17 October 2026, NB I: Paks 1-2 Gyori ETO, with 22 shots to 11 and 8 corners to 0.
- Paks put four shots on target to Gyori ETO's six in that match.
- Paks had beaten MTK Budapest 3-0 on 10 October 2026.
Vasas are fourth on 15 points and Paks seventh on 14, so the table separates them by a single point. The home and away splits are wider: Vasas have 11 goals in five league home games, while Paks have conceded nine in four away. Paks have still scored six on the road, so the mismatch sits in defence rather than attack.
- After 10 NB I games: Vasas 4W-3D-3L (18 scored, 13 conceded); Paks 4W-2D-4L (20 scored, 19 conceded).
- Vasas at home: 2W-2D-1L, 11 goals scored and six conceded in five games.
- Paks away: 1W-1D-2L, six goals scored and nine conceded in four games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Vasas SC or Draw

1.45fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 69%

−3.0ppshort

Vasas’ home record and scoring output make them hard to beat, while Paks have lost twice on the road.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.38fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 72.5%

−0.5ppshort

Both teams have repeatedly found the net, and Paks’ away games have especially produced goals at both ends.

Away Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Paks over 0.5

1.18fair 1.19

BetBugs 84% · Market 84.7%

−0.7ppshort

Paks have scored consistently and Vasas have conceded in most home games, so an away goal is well supported.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 72.5%

−8.5ppshort

Both teams’ home/away profiles point to goals, with Paks’ away games especially open.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.18fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 84.7%

−16.7ppshort

First-half goal rates for both teams are enough to expect at least one before the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Vasas’ home record and scoring output make them hard to beat, while Paks have lost twice on the road.
- Vasas home record: 2W-2D-1L in five league home games.
- Paks away record: 1W-1D-2L in four league away games.
- Vasas scored 11 and conceded 6 in five league home games.
- Paks conceded 9 in four league away games.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostVasas SC or DrawEstimated chance66%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both teams have repeatedly found the net, and Paks’ away games have especially produced goals at both ends.
- Vasas: both teams scored in 7 of 11 competitive matches.
- Paks: both teams scored in 10 of 13 competitive matches.
- Paks away split: both teams scored in 5 of 6 away matches.
- Recent six for Vasas: both teams scored in five.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Paks have scored consistently and Vasas have conceded in most home games, so an away goal is well supported.
- Paks scored in all six recent matches.
- Paks away split: 1.67 goals per game across six matches.
- Vasas home split: 1.20 goals conceded per game.
- Vasas kept one clean sheet in five home league games.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonPaks over 0.5Estimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both teams’ home/away profiles point to goals, with Paks’ away games especially open.
- Vasas home matches average 3.4 total goals.
- Paks away matches average 3.67 total goals.
- Paks league games average 3.9 total goals.
- Vasas recent six: four matches went over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vasas have scored at least twice on average at home and face a Paks side conceding regularly on the road.
- Vasas home split: 2.2 goals per game.
- Vasas scored 11 in five league home games.
- Paks away split: 2.0 goals conceded per game.
- Paks conceded nine in four league away games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostVasas SC over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams do more second-half scoring, and Vasas’ home games have produced late goals.
- Vasas home second half: 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
- Paks away second half: 0.83 scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
- Vasas recent six: five second halves had at least two goals.
- Paks recent six: three second halves had at least two goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
First-half goal rates for both teams are enough to expect at least one before the break.
- Vasas home first half: 0.8 scored and 0.2 conceded per game.
- Paks away first half: 0.83 scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
- Vasas recent six: four had a first-half goal.
- Paks recent six: four had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Paks are unlikely to score before half-time away, and Vasas have conceded very few first-half goals at home.
- Vasas home first half: 0.8 scored and 0.2 conceded per game.
- Paks away first half: 0.83 scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
- Vasas recent six: both teams scored in the first half three times.
- Paks recent six: both teams scored in the first half twice.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance73%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot volumes sit below the line, and recent match totals rarely clear 33.5.
- Vasas overall shots: 16.7 for and 12.6 against per game.
- Paks overall shots: 17.3 for and 15.0 against per game.
- Vasas recent shot-data matches: none reached 34 total shots.
- Paks recent shot-data matches: one of five reached 34 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 33.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides’ average shot-on-target totals are around the line, with recent matches mostly staying below it.
- Vasas overall shots on target: 5.6 for and 4.9 against per game.
- Paks overall shots on target: 5.8 for and 5.6 against per game.
- Vasas recent shot-data matches: three of five stayed under 12 total SOT.
- Paks recent shot-data matches: four of five stayed under 12 total SOT.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 11.5Estimated chance62%