Zlin1Sigma Olomouc1

HT 0–0Sat 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–746%

Edges2–529%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 15–13On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 07:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Bottom-of-the-table Zlín, winless in 11 league games and beaten in all six at home, host a Sigma Olomouc side sitting second.

Sigma to win is the likely result, and at 1.8 it is only narrowly worth backing; 2.0 for both teams to score: no is the better price given Zlín's two home goals all season. The 1.22 for Sigma to avoid defeat adds nothing.

Context

Eleven league games without a win and last place give Zlín the clearest stakes in the round, and the club's own matchweek build-up treats the Sigma visit as the fixture in which the run should end. Hoftych has ruled out letting the season go quietly while asking his players to avoid a tense, nervous environment, which points to a home side sent out to compete rather than protect. The counterweight is that Zlín have conceded in all six home league matches, so intent alone does not settle how they cope with a side arriving off a 1-0 win.
- Zlín are still waiting for their first Chance Liga win of the season as round 12 approaches.
- A 0-3 defeat at Pardubice on 17 October left Zlín bottom of the table.
- Hoftych's position is that nothing will be let slip while he is in charge, and that he wants the group working in a positive rather than a tense environment.
- The Sigma fixture is a Moravian derby in round 12, kicking off at 15:00 at Letná.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Lurvink's return adds an option to a defence that has underpinned Sigma's season, with the side conceding 1.1 goals per league game and keeping a clean sheet in the 1-0 win over Liberec. Against hosts who have scored twice across six home league matches, an extra available defender is more about rotation and late cover than about reshaping the starting eleven. The limitation is sourcing: the return comes from Czech transfer reporting rather than a club team-news release, and being back in the squad does not establish a start.
- Sigma travel to Zlín with defender Louis Lurvink, 24, back in the squad.
- Fellow 24-year-old Péter Baráth also returns; Fabijan Krivak's involvement was still being awaited when the squad news circulated on 22 October.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Baráth's availability widens Sigma's midfield choices in a run of one defeat in five league games, and that matters against a Zlín side that concedes possession and defends deep at Letná. More midfield legs give the visitors room to rotate without losing control of a game they should have most of the ball in. As with Lurvink, the caveat is second-hand sourcing: the return is carried by Czech transfer reporting, not a club availability bulletin, so it settles squad presence rather than a starting role.
- Péter Baráth, 24, is back in Sigma Olomouc's squad for the away game at Zlín.
- Fabijan Krivak, 21, was still awaiting a decision on his involvement on 22 October.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Zlín beat Sigma 5-0 at Letná in December 2025 and 3-2 there in April 2024, so the ground has not been a comfortable trip. Those results are the clearest argument against treating Saturday as a formality for the visitors, though Sigma won the August 2025 return 1-0 and sit second.
- 14 December 2025: Zlín 5-0 Sigma Olomouc in the Czech Liga at Letná.
- 16 August 2025: Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Zlín in the Czech Liga.
- 6 April 2024: Zlín 3-2 Sigma Olomouc in the Czech Liga at Letná.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Sigma's stronger league position and Zlin's winless home run make an away win the most supported result.
- Sigma are second with 20 points from 11 league games.
- Sigma have won three of six away league matches.
- Zlin have lost all six home league matches and scored twice.
- Zlin have conceded 10 goals in six home league games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSigma OlomoucEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Sigma's first-half away scoring and Zlin's early home concessions make Sigma the most supported half-time leader.
- Sigma have scored six first-half goals in six away league games.
- Zlin have conceded four first-half goals in six home league games.
- Sigma led 1-0 at half-time in their 1-0 win over Liberec.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSigma OlomoucEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
A low-scoring derby and Sigma's mixed away results keep a draw as a realistic outcome. Sigma's stronger league position and Zlin's winless home run make an away win the most supported result.
- Zlin have drawn one league game and Sigma have drawn two.
- Zlin home league matches average 2.0 total goals.
- Sigma are second with 20 points from 11 league games.
- Sigma have won three of six away league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Sigma OlomoucEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The first half has been closer than the full-time records suggest, with several level scorelines. Sigma's first-half away scoring and Zlin's early home concessions make Sigma the most supported half-time leader.
- Zlin have scored one and conceded four first-half goals in six home league games.
- Sigma have scored six and conceded two first-half goals in six away league games.
- Sigma have scored six first-half goals in six away league games.
- Zlin have conceded four first-half goals in six home league games.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Sigma OlomoucEstimated chance87%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Zlin's low home scoring and the limited away output in several Sigma matches favour fewer than three goals.
- Zlin home league matches average 2.0 total goals.
- Zlin have scored only 2 goals in six home league matches.
- Sigma have scored one goal or fewer in three of six away league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Zlin's home attack has produced very little, so at least one side failing to score is the stronger outcome.
- Zlin failed to score in four of six home league games.
- Zlin have scored only two goals at home all season.
- Sigma kept clean sheets in two of 11 league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams' relevant splits show regular first-half scoring, so at least one first-half goal is the stronger side.
- Zlin home league games have produced five first-half goals in six.
- Sigma away league games have produced eight first-half goals in six.
- Sigma scored first-half goals in their recent away games at Teplice and Plzen.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Zlin's home scoring record strongly supports them staying below two goals.
- Zlin average 0.33 goals per home league game.
- Zlin have scored in only two of six home league matches.
- Zlin total two home goals this season.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonZlin under 1.5Estimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sigma's away scoring and Zlin's home conceding rate give Sigma a fair chance of scoring at least twice.
- Sigma average 1.5 goals in six away league games.
- Sigma have scored in five of six away league games.
- Zlin have conceded 10 goals in six home league games.
- Sigma scored three at Plzen.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSigma Olomouc over 1.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both teams' relevant splits and recent home matches point to corner totals above the line.
- Zlin home league matches average 10.7 total corners.
- Sigma away league matches average 9.3 total corners.
- Zlin's last three home league matches produced 10, 18 and 11 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' relevant splits average above the line, and recent home matches support a higher shot count.
- Zlin home league matches average 26.7 total shots.
- Sigma away league matches average 25.0 total shots.
- Zlin's last three home league matches produced 23, 28 and 32 shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sigma's away shot-on-target rate and Zlin's recent home matches lean toward the over.
- Sigma away league matches average 8.7 shots on target.
- Zlin's last three home league matches produced 4, 9 and 9 shots on target.
- Sigma's last three away league matches produced 13, 7 and 5 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sigma's low away card rate and their recent league matches favour fewer than four cards.
- Sigma away league matches average 2.3 cards.
- Zlin home league matches average 3.5 cards.
- Only one of Sigma's last five league games reached four cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance62%