Czech LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Jablonec2Sigma Olomouc1

HT 0–1Sun 26 Jul 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 19–5On targetOn target 7–2CornersCorners 10–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Jul 2026, 18:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Sigma Olomouc are the value play against a Jablonec side distracted by a European return leg and weakened by key absences.

Back Sigma or Draw at 1.60, or take the outright away win at 2.90 for a bigger edge.

Context

Jablonec lost 3-2 at Varaždin on 23 July and need to overturn the deficit at home on 30 July.
- Coach Kozel admitted the tie is not decided and Sigma's preview noted Jablonec may save players.
- The quick turnaround forces Jablonec to prioritize the European match over the league opener.
Chairman Ondřej Navrátil publicly set a top-six mandate at the season-opening press conference.
- Sigma emphasized a domestic-only focus, unlike last season when they also played in Europe.
- Coach Hapal said Sigma should impose its game and try to win at Jablonec.
Winger Alexis Alegue was sold to Artis Brno on 22 July after three seasons with Jablonec.
- Striker Milly is expected to be unavailable for a longer period, per Kozel's pre-Varaždin update.
- These two were key attacking contributors, leaving Jablonec thinner up front.
Sigma won 2-1 at Jablonec on 7 March 2026, their first league win there in 21 years.
- Sigma also won 2-0 at home against Jablonec on 5 October 2025.
- Jablonec's only win in the last five H2H meetings was a 4-0 home victory in May 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Resultnot gradableUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.20fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 45.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high half-time draw percentages, and with Jablonec likely cautious early due to rotation, a stalemate at the break is probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sigma's recent H2H edge, Jablonec's European distraction and squad rotation risk, plus Sigma's clear domestic ambition make an away win the most likely single outcome.
- Sigma won last 2 H2H meetings (2-1 away, 2-0 home) in 2025/26 season.
- Jablonec lost 3-2 away in Conference League on 23 July, with return leg on 30 July, likely rotating squad.
- Sigma's domestic-only focus and top-six mandate increase motivation for opening day.
- Jablonec sold winger Alegue and striker Milly is injured, weakening attack.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSigma OlomoucEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jablonec's home advantage is undermined by European rotation and poor recent H2H, making a Jablonec win unlikely; Sigma or draw covers the two most probable outcomes.
- Jablonec have only 1 win in last 5 H2H (4-0 in May 2025), with 2 draws and 2 Sigma wins.
- Jablonec's last 5 competitive home matches: 2W-1D-2L, not dominant.
- Sigma's last 5 competitive away matches: 2W-1D-2L, competitive on the road.
- Jablonec likely to rest key players for European return leg on 30 July.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Sigma OlomoucEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high half-time draw percentages, and with Jablonec likely cautious early due to rotation, a stalemate at the break is probable.
- Jablonec's last 15 matches: led at half-time in 27%, trailed in 33%, drawn in 40%.
- Sigma's last 15 matches: led at half-time in 33%, trailed in 13%, drawn in 53%.
- Last 5 H2H: half-time results were 2 draws, 2 Sigma leads, 1 Jablonec lead.
- Jablonec's last 5 competitive home matches: half-time draws in 3.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sigma's superior second-half performance and Jablonec's tendency to fade after the break suggest Sigma could edge the second period.
- Sigma scored 1.3 second-half goals per match on average, conceding 0.7.
- Jablonec conceded 0.9 second-half goals per match, scoring 0.7.
- Sigma won the second half in 3 of last 5 competitive away matches.
- Jablonec lost the second half in 3 of last 5 competitive home matches.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableSigma OlomoucEstimated chance38%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent goal averages and H2H trend point to an open game, especially with Jablonec's defensive vulnerabilities and Sigma's attacking form.
- Last 3 H2H meetings produced 3, 2, and 4 goals, averaging 3.0 goals.
- Jablonec's last 15 matches averaged 3.1 total goals (1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded).
- Sigma's last 15 matches averaged 3.2 total goals (2.0 scored, 1.2 conceded).
- Jablonec's last 5 competitive home matches: 2-1, 1-3, 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 – all had at least 2 goals, 4 of 5 over 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jablonec consistently find the net at home but rarely keep clean sheets, while Sigma's strong scoring record suggests both teams will score.
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Jablonec scored in 12 of last 15 matches, but kept only 3 clean sheets.
- Sigma scored in 13 of last 15 matches, with 5 clean sheets.
- Jablonec's last 5 competitive home matches: both teams scored in 4.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Jablonec's home scoring trend is positive but weakened by key absences, making over 1.5 home goals a borderline call.
- Jablonec scored 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 competitive home matches.
- Jablonec's home goals per game average is 1.3 over last 15, but 1.6 in last 5 home games.
- Sigma conceded 2+ goals in 2 of last 5 away matches.
- Jablonec missing key attacker Milly and sold Alegue, reducing firepower.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonJablonec over 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sigma's consistent away scoring and Jablonec's leaky home defense make over 1.5 away goals a strong possibility.
- Sigma scored 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 competitive away matches.
- Sigma's away goals per game average is 1.8 over last 15.
- Jablonec conceded 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 competitive home matches.
- Sigma's attack is in form, scoring 2+ in 8 of last 10 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSigma Olomouc over 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, and H2H history shows first-half goals are common, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Jablonec's last 15 matches: 0.6 first-half goals scored, 0.9 conceded, total 1.5 first-half goals on average.
- Sigma's last 15 matches: 0.7 first-half goals scored, 0.5 conceded, total 1.2 first-half goals on average.
- In last 5 H2H, first-half goals occurred in 3 matches (2-1, 2-0, 4-0).
- Jablonec's last 5 competitive home matches: first-half goals in 4.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as Jablonec tires or chases games, and Sigma's strong second-half scoring supports over 1.5 goals.
- Jablonec's last 15 matches: second-half goals average 1.6 (0.7 scored, 0.9 conceded).
- Sigma's last 15 matches: second-half goals average 2.0 (1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded).
- Last 3 H2H meetings had 2, 1, and 3 second-half goals.
- Jablonec's last 5 competitive home matches: second-half goals in all, with 3 having over 1.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Limited corner data, but both teams' recent matches suggest a moderate corner count, with over 9.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Jablonec's last 15 matches: average 5.3 corners for, opponent corners unknown but total corners in available matches: 10, 11, 9, 13, 12 – average ~11.
- Sigma's last 15 matches: average 4.9 corners for, opponent corners unknown but total corners in available matches: 8, 10, 11, 15, 6 – average ~10.
- Last H2H with corner data (not available) – using general trends.
- Both teams average around 10-11 total corners in recent competitive matches.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have disciplinary records that suggest a card-filled match, especially with the competitive stakes of an opening day.
- Jablonec's last 15 matches: average 1.8 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards – total 2.3 cards per match.
- Sigma's last 15 matches: average 1.7 yellow cards, 1.0 red cards – total 2.7 cards per match.
- Combined average ~5.0 cards per match, but red cards inflate Sigma's average.
- Opening day intensity and H2H rivalry could increase card count.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

W1-2FK JablonecvSigma OlomoucMar 7, 2026CZE

L2-0Sigma OlomoucvFK JablonecOct 5, 2025CZE

L4-0FK JablonecvSigma OlomoucMay 10, 2025CZE

D0-0FK JablonecvSigma OlomoucMar 29, 2025CZE

D0-0Sigma OlomoucvFK JablonecOct 26, 2024CZE

Jablonec: 2 clean sheetsSigma Olomouc: 4 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Czech Liga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Jablonec Promotion - Chance Liga (Championship Group)	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
10	Sigma Olomouc Promotion - Chance Liga (7th-10th places)	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Jablonec leads the leagueSigma Olomouc leads the league

Recent Form

Jablonec

L2-3NK VarazdinJul 23UEF

W1-0Metalist 1925 KharkivJul 15FRI

W1-0VfL OsnabrückJul 12FRI

L1-3FC LieferingJul 11FRI

D0-0PafosJul 8FRI

D1-1Ústí nad LabemJul 3FRI

W5-0Mlada BoleslavJun 27FRI

W2-1VlašimJun 26FRI

W2-1Slovan LiberecMay 24CZE

L1-3KarvináMay 20CUP

L0-5PlzenMay 17CZE

L1-5Slavia PrahaMay 13CZE

D1-1Hradec KrálovéMay 10CZE

L0-2Sparta PrahaMay 3CZE

L1-2Slovan LiberecApr 25CZE

Sigma Olomouc

W2-1Al SaddJul 17FRI

W2-0Shabab Al Ahli DubaiJul 13FRI

W5-1HanáckáJul 4FRI

W2-1Dukla Banská BystricaJul 4FRI

D0-0SkalicaJul 1FRI

W1-0RužomberokJun 27FRI

W4-0KarvináMay 23CZE

W3-1KarvináMay 16CZE

W3-1Bohemians 1905May 2CZE

L1-2Slavia PrahaApr 25CZE

W2-1SlováckoApr 19CZE

L1-2PardubiceApr 12CZE

L2-4Mlada BoleslavApr 4CZE

L0-2FSV Mainz 05Mar 19UEF

D2-2KarvináMar 15CZE

Squad & Injuries

Jablonec

32 available

Attackers4

Midfielders14

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Sigma Olomouc

39 available

Attackers10

Midfielders15

Defenders9

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Sigma Olomouc

Sigma Olomouc

Draw

Yes

Over 0.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals5 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Jablonec

Over 1.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Jablonec

Sigma Olomouc

Squad & Injuries

Jablonec

Sigma Olomouc