Czech LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Sigma Olomouc3Bohemians 19050

HT 2–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 11–9On targetOn target 7–3CornersCorners 5–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 17:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Sigma Olomouc are favored at home but the odds offer no value (52% model vs 57% implied), and Bohemians' postponed match adds uncertainty.

Avoid the home win, double chance, and over 2.5 goals at current prices; the match is likely competitive with both teams scoring, but the market has already priced in these outcomes.

Context

Sigma Olomouc are 5th in the Czech Liga with 10 points from 6 matches.
They have won three of their last five league games, including a 3-1 home win over Pardubice on 23 August 2026. At home this season they have one win and one draw, scoring 5 goals and conceding 3. Bohemians 1905 have only one away win in three attempts, so Sigma's home record is a meaningful advantage.
- Sigma Olomouc won 3-1 at home against Pardubice on 23 August 2026.
- Sigma Olomouc are unbeaten at home this season with 1 win and 1 draw.
- Bohemians 1905 have 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss in 3 away matches.
Sigma Olomouc head coach Pavel Hapal has pointed to the final third as the area needing better quality after the 0-1 loss at Baník Ostrava on 29 August.
Hapal said Sigma created several good chances in Ostrava but did not convert them, so the coaching staff are likely to focus on sharper attacking play before hosting Bohemians. The claim is based on the coach's own assessment, but it does not specify which players or tactical adjustments will change.
- Sigma lost 0-1 at Baník Ostrava on 29 August.
- Hapal said Sigma had several good opportunities but did not turn them into goals.
- Hapal identified the final third as the area requiring better quality.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 17:32 · Europe/BucharestSK Sigma Olomouc: Hapal on the Baník matchsigmafotbal.cz.esports-12-www4.superhosting.cz · 29 Aug 2026
Bohemians 1905 are 12th in the Czech Liga with 5 points from 4 matches.
Their away record is 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 5 goals scored and 5 conceded. They lost 3-1 at Teplice on 25 July 2026 and drew 2-2 at Slavia Praha on 22 August 2026. Sigma Olomouc have been strong at home, so Bohemians' away form is a concern.
- Bohemians 1905 lost 3-1 at Teplice on 25 July 2026.
- Bohemians 1905 drew 2-2 at Slavia Praha on 22 August 2026.
- Bohemians 1905 have 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss in 3 away matches.
Bohemians' scheduled home match against Mladá Boleslav on 29 August was postponed because of widespread illness in the visiting squad and staff.
The postponement means Bohemians have not played a competitive league match since their previous fixture, which changes their immediate competitive load and preparation interval before travelling to Olomouc. No replacement date had been set, so the effect on their match sharpness remains uncertain.
- The Bohemians-Mladá Boleslav match scheduled for 29 August was postponed by the League Football Association.
- Bohemians said Mladá Boleslav documented widespread illness among players and coaching staff.
- No replacement date had been set when Bohemians published the announcement.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 17:32 · Europe/BucharestBohemians Praha 1905: postponed Mladá Boleslav fixturebohemians.cz · 28 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Sigma Olomouc

1.75fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Sigma's home form is solid but the odds imply a higher probability than our model, leaving no value on the home win.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sigma Olomouc or Draw

1.22fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 82%

−4.0ppshort

The double chance is heavily juiced and offers no cushion over our estimate, despite Sigma's unbeaten home start.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average over 2.5 total goals in recent matches and H2H often produces goals, but odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half and H2H history supports early goals, but odds heavily favor the over, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sigma's stronger home form and higher league position give them the edge, though Bohemians' recent H2H away win adds uncertainty.
- Sigma Olomouc home record this season: 1W 1D 0L, 5 goals scored, 3 conceded in 2 matches.
- Sigma Olomouc overall form last 5 league matches: 3W 1D 1L, including 3 consecutive wins before the Baník loss.
- Bohemians 1905 away record this season: 1W 1D 1L, 5 goals scored, 5 conceded in 3 matches.
- H2H last 5 meetings: Sigma Olomouc won 2, Bohemians won 2, 1 draw; at Sigma home, Bohemians won 2-1 in May 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSigma OlomoucEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sigma's unbeaten home record this season and Bohemians' inconsistent away form make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Sigma Olomouc have not lost at home this season (1W 1D).
- Bohemians have won only 1 of their last 5 away league matches.
- Sigma's overall home form across last 15 matches: 8W 3D 4L.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSigma Olomouc or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sigma's tendency to lead at half-time and Bohemians' tendency to trail give a slight edge to the home side.
- Sigma led at half-time in 43% of last 15 matches.
- Bohemians trailed at half-time in 40% of last 15 matches.
- Sigma average 0.7 first-half goals vs Bohemians' 0.8 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSigma OlomoucEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win from a leading position is possible but not strongly supported by the data.
- Sigma led at half-time in 43% of matches and won 60% of those.
- Bohemians trailed at half-time in 40% and lost 67% of those.
- Sigma's home record this season: 1W 1D.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonSigma Olomouc / Sigma OlomoucEstimated chance30%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have positive goal involvement and H2H often produces goals, supporting over 2.5.
- Sigma Olomouc average 2.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match in last 15.
- Bohemians average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match in last 15.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- Sigma home matches this season average 4.0 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks are consistent and defensive records are not strong enough to expect clean sheets.
- Sigma Olomouc have scored in 13 of last 15 matches.
- Bohemians have scored in 11 of last 15 matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Sigma conceded in 4 of last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and H2H history supports early goals.
- Sigma average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded.
- Bohemians average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- In last 5 H2H, 4 matches had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' goal distributions, but variance is high.
- Sigma average 1.4 second-half goals per match (total 2.1 minus 0.7 first-half).
- Bohemians average 0.8 second-half goals per match (total 1.5 minus 0.7 first-half).
- Combined average second-half goals: 2.2.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corner totals are near the line, making this a marginal call.
- Sigma average 4.6 corners per match, Bohemians 5.0.
- Combined average corners: 9.6.
- In last 5 H2H with corner data, total corners ranged from 4 to 14.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate shots on target, and the combined average slightly exceeds the line.
- Sigma average 5.6 shots on target per match.
- Bohemians average 3.8 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target: 9.4.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 57% leaves no cushion vs our 52% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

L1-2Sigma OlomoucvBohemians 1905May 10, 2026CZE

W1-3Bohemians 1905vSigma OlomoucMay 2, 2026CZE

W1-0Sigma OlomoucvBohemians 1905Mar 1, 2026CZE

D2-2Bohemians 1905vSigma OlomoucSep 27, 2025CZE

W0-1Bohemians 1905vSigma OlomoucMar 9, 2025CZE

Sigma Olomouc: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Czech Liga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Sigma Olomouc Play-offs	6	3	1	2	10-8	10	LWWWD
12	Bohemians 1905 Relegation Play-offs	4	1	2	1	5-5	5	DWDL

5pt gap between teamsBohemians 1905 in relegation zone

Recent Form

Sigma Olomouc

L0-1Baník OstravaAug 29CZE

W3-1PardubiceAug 23CZE

W2-1SlováckoAug 15CZE

W2-1ArtisAug 9CZE

D2-2Mlada BoleslavAug 2CZE

L1-2FK JablonecJul 26CZE

W2-1Al SaddJul 17FRI

W2-0Shabab Al Ahli DubaiJul 13FRI

W5-1HanáckáJul 4FRI

L2-3ProstějovJul 4FRI

W2-1Dukla Banská BystricaJul 4FRI

D0-0SkalicaJul 1FRI

W1-0RužomberokJun 27FRI

W4-0KarvináMay 23CZE

W3-1KarvináMay 16CZE

Bohemians 1905

W3-2Sokol ZápyAug 25CUP

D2-2Slavia PrahaAug 22CZE

W2-0ZlinAug 8CZE

D0-0Hradec KrálovéAug 2CZE

L1-3TepliceJul 25CZE

W2-0Zaglebie LubinJul 17FRI

L0-2Wisla PlockJul 14FRI

L0-4Lech PoznanJul 11FRI

W4-2TáborskoJul 4FRI

L1-3Sigma OlomoucMay 2CZE

W2-0Sparta PrahaApr 25CZE

W2-0Baník OstravaApr 18CZE

W2-1ZlinApr 11CZE

L0-2Hradec KrálovéApr 5CZE

D1-1FK JablonecMar 27FRI

Squad & Injuries

Sigma Olomouc

35 available

Attackers10

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Bohemians 1905

27 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sigma Olomouc

Sigma Olomouc or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sigma Olomouc

Bohemians 1905

Squad & Injuries

Sigma Olomouc

Bohemians 1905