Over 9.5
Market 54.1% · BetBugs 60%
Combined corners profile over the last 8 matches projects sustained wing pressure above the 9.5 baseline.
Czech LigaFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Plzeň are overvalued in the match winner market (1.20 odds vs 55% model probability) given Zlín's recent H2H league wins without conceding.
The top actionable edges are over 9.5 corners (+6 points) and over 3.5 cards (+13.3 points), where the data supports value against the odds. Avoid backing Plzeň on the -1 handicap or over 1.5 team goals due to poor home form and Zlín's defensive record in this fixture.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 54.1% · BetBugs 60%
Combined corners profile over the last 8 matches projects sustained wing pressure above the 9.5 baseline.
Market 41.7% · BetBugs 55%
Zlin's high card accumulation and competitive H2H history suggest total cards will exceed 3.5, with Zlin likely to receive multiple bookings.
Other edges · 4
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 80% · Market 95%
Zlin have lost all 3 league matches this season and are winless in their last 5 away league games, making a Plzen win or draw extremely likely.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied probability of 83% leaves no value against our 55% estimate; the price is far too short given Zlin's recent H2H dominance.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Viktoria PlzenRelegation Play-offs | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7-9 | 2 |
| 16 | ZlinRelegation Play-offs | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1-6 | 0 |

