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Predictions graded

Queens Park0Dunfermline Athletic1

HT 0–1Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–285%

Edges3–175%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 11:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Two sides at opposite ends of the table meet with one question: can Dunfermline turn control into goals against a Queen's Park team beaten in five of their last six?

Dunfermline are the likelier winners and have won three of the last five meetings, but 1.5 asks more than a side with three away goals in five games has shown. Under 2.5 goals at 1.95, both teams to score: No at 1.85 and the 4.00 draw are the prices that stand up.

Context

Cleall-Harding was on the pitch for the 0-0 draw with Livingston on 17 October and went off injured with ten minutes left, so Dunfermline arrive at The City Stadium needing a different defensive combination from the one Lennon finished that match with. The back line had kept two clean sheets in the previous four league games, which is the part of his team Lennon has had least reason to change. The limit on this is that no squad update for the Queen's Park fixture has been published, so how Lennon covers the position, and whether anyone else is missing alongside him, remains unresolved.
- Sam Cleall-Harding, a defender on loan from Dundee United, suffered a serious hamstring injury 10 minutes from the end of Dunfermline's 0-0 draw with Livingston on 17 October.
- Neil Lennon set out a likely return date for the defender on 22 October.
- S. Harding started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- A. Donnelly started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when S. Harding did not start.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 11:09 · Europe/Bucharest
Dunfermline have scored twice across those three draws, and on 16 October Lennon argued the performances were 'off the charts' while dismissing the idea that a specialist striker coach 'helps at all' - a clear signal he intends to keep the same attacking structure rather than change personnel or coaching. Queen's Park have conceded two or more in five of their last seven league games, so this is precisely the fixture where that patience should be tested. The counterweight is that Lennon's description of dominant performance is his own reading of matches Dunfermline did not win; the record itself is three draws.
- Dunfermline drew 1-1 with Partick Thistle on 20 October, 0-0 with Livingston on 17 October and 1-1 with Ayr United on 10 October.
- Lennon described his side's performances as 'off the charts' on 16 October.
- Lennon said a new striker coach would not help and that the forwards should be trusted.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 11:09 · Europe/Bucharest
That September afternoon is the only meeting between the clubs this season, and Dunfermline's burst inside 28 minutes is the kind of start Queen's Park have struggled to contain at The City Stadium, where they trailed at half-time in home defeats to Ayr United and Raith Rovers. Dunfermline's away record since then is steady rather than commanding: a 1-1 draw at Ayr United and a 1-0 win at Morton. One fixture five weeks old is thin evidence for a repeat, and the venue has changed from East End Park to a far smaller ground.
- Dunfermline beat Queen's Park 2-0 at KDM Group East End Park in the Championship on 12 September 2026.
- J. Cooper scored after seven minutes and R. MacLeod added the second on 28 minutes.
- The match was played in front of 5,006 spectators.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 11:09 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport: Dunfermline 2-0 Queen's Park match reportwww.bbc.com · 12 Sep 2026
Queen's Park's own 19 October feature was built around the number, with Longridge naming the teammates he has played most alongside, which puts the landmark at the centre of the club's week rather than in a statistical footnote. He is a midfielder in a squad that has taken seven points from eleven league games, so individual recognition is carrying more of the club's good news than results are. It carries no selection or performance implication: it explains why the home crowd will mark him, not how Queen's Park will set up against Dunfermline.
- Queen's Park published a feature headed '500 not out' centred on Louis Longridge on 19 October.
- The feature had Longridge naming the teammates he has played most football with.
- L. Longridge started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- R. McLean started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when L. Longridge did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 11:09 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dunfermline's defensive record and recent head-to-head control make them the more likely winner.
- Dunfermline are 5th with 3 wins, 6 draws and 1 defeat in 10 league games.
- They are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Queen's Park, winning three.
- Queen's Park have lost five of their last six league games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDunfermline AthleticEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dunfermline's away first halves have been very quiet, making a level first half the strongest single outcome.
- Dunfermline have not scored a first-half goal in six away matches in the sample.
- Dunfermline concede only 0.21 first-half goals per game overall.
- Queen's Park concede 1.0 first-half goal per game in the sample.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dunfermline's second halves have been highly draw-heavy, making a level second period the most likely result.
- Dunfermline have drawn five of their last six second halves.
- Dunfermline have not lost a second half in their last six matches.
- Queen's Park concede 0.47 second-half goals per game in the sample.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dunfermline's draw-heavy record and modest away scoring make a tight result plausible. Dunfermline's defensive record and recent head-to-head control make them the more likely winner.
- Dunfermline have drawn 6 of their 10 league games.
- Dunfermline's away record is 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss.
- Dunfermline are 5th with 3 wins, 6 draws and 1 defeat in 10 league games.
- They are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Queen's Park, winning three.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Dunfermline AthleticEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dunfermline's away first halves have been very quiet, making a level first half the strongest single outcome. Queen's Park's early concessions give Dunfermline a chance to lead at the break despite their quiet away first halves.
- Dunfermline have not scored a first-half goal in six away matches in the sample.
- Dunfermline concede only 0.21 first-half goals per game overall.
- Queen's Park concede 1.0 first-half goal per game in the sample.
- Queen's Park conceded first-half goals in each of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Dunfermline AthleticEstimated chance82%

Goals7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Dunfermline's low-scoring matches and the recent head-to-head record point to fewer than three goals.
- The last five meetings all finished with two or fewer goals.
- Dunfermline's away league games have produced 7 goals in 5.
- Dunfermline's 10 league games have produced only 14 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Queen's Park's scoring problems and Dunfermline's clean-sheet record make a shutout on at least one side likely.
- Only one of the last five meetings had both teams score.
- Queen's Park have been blanked in four of their last six matches.
- Dunfermline have kept seven clean sheets in 14 league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Queen's Park's recent first halves have consistently produced a goal, giving the over a reasonable chance.
- All six of Queen's Park's recent matches had at least one first-half goal.
- Queen's Park concede 1.0 first-half goal per game in the sample.
- Dunfermline have not scored a first-half goal in six away matches in the sample.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Dunfermline's blank first halves away and Queen's Park's low first-half scoring make both teams scoring before the break unlikely.
- Dunfermline have not scored a first-half goal in six away matches in the sample.
- Queen's Park average 0.4 first-half goals and concede 1.0 in the sample.
- Queen's Park have scored first-half goals in only one of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half goal rates are low, pointing to fewer than two goals after the break.
- Queen's Park's second-half games average about 1.07 goals in the sample.
- Dunfermline's second-half games average about 1.14 goals in the sample.
- Dunfermline have drawn five of their last six second halves.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Queen's Park's home goals have come at roughly one per game, and Dunfermline's away defence is solid.
- Queen's Park have scored five goals in five home league games.
- Queen's Park have been blanked in four of their last six matches.
- Dunfermline conceded only four goals in five away league games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonQueens Park under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dunfermline's away scoring has been low enough to favour under two goals despite Queen's Park's defensive record.
- Dunfermline have scored three goals in five away league games.
- Dunfermline's away games have produced seven total goals in five.
- Queen's Park have conceded 18 goals in 11 league games.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonDunfermline Athletic under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Queen's Park have scored at home, so Dunfermline keeping a clean sheet is not the stronger side of this line.
- Queen's Park have scored five goals in five home league games.
- Dunfermline have kept seven clean sheets in 14 league games.
- Dunfermline kept three clean sheets in six away matches in the sample.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostQueens Park to scoreEstimated chance54%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L2-0DunfermlinevQueen's ParkSep 12, 2026CHA

W0-2Queen's ParkvDunfermlineApr 25, 2026CHA

L1-0DunfermlinevQueen's ParkFeb 28, 2026CHA

D1-1Queen's ParkvDunfermlineDec 13, 2025CHA

D0-0DunfermlinevQueen's ParkOct 4, 2025CHA

Queens Park: 2 clean sheetsDunfermline Athletic: 3 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Queens Park Relegation - League One	11	2	1	8	6-18	7	LWLLL
5	Dunfermline Athletic	10	3	6	1	8-6	15	DDDWW

8pt gap between teamsQueens Park in relegation zone

Recent Form

Queens Park

L0-2MortonOct 17CHA

W2-1Inverness CTOct 13CHA

L0-2Raith RoversOct 10CHA

L1-2ArbroathSep 25CHA

L0-2Ayr UtdSep 18CHA

L0-2DunfermlineSep 12CHA

W2-1MortonSep 5CHA

D0-0PartickAug 29CHA

L0-2StenhousemuirAug 22CHA

L1-2Raith RoversAug 8CHA

L0-2LivingstonAug 1CHA

W3-1Queen of the SouthJul 25LEA

L1-2AberdeenJul 18LEA

W2-0Kelty HeartsJul 14LEA

W3-1Brora RangersJul 11LEA

Dunfermline Athletic

D1-1PartickOct 20CHA

D0-0LivingstonOct 17CHA

D1-1Ayr UtdOct 10CHA

L1-4AberdeenOct 3FRI

W1-0MortonSep 19CHA

W2-0Queen's ParkSep 12CHA

D1-1ArbroathSep 5CHA

W1-0Raith RoversAug 28CHA

L0-2LivingstonAug 22CHA

L1-2Ross CountyAug 15LEA

D1-1Ayr UtdAug 8CHA

D0-0Inverness CTAug 1CHA

W1-0ST MirrenJul 26LEA

W5-0Cove RangersJul 21LEA

W4-1DumbartonJul 14LEA

Squad & Injuries

Queens Park

25 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Dunfermline Athletic

32 available

Attackers10

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

No

Draw

No

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 8 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Queens Park

Dunfermline Athletic

Squad & Injuries

Queens Park

Dunfermline Athletic