NK Varazdin1Slaven Koprivnica2

HT 1–0Sat 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–1029%

Edges0–40%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 15–8On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 1–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 13:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Varaždin's unbeaten home league record against a Slaven side with one point from five away trips is the pull of this north derby, but Varaždin's own home games have been thin on goals.

A narrow home win or a 0-0 is the likeliest shape. Both teams to score — No at 2.1, the sides level at half-time at 2.4 and under 2.5 goals at 2.2 all hold up; Varaždin at 1.62 does not.

Context

One point from five away league matches is a concrete threshold rather than routine travel: a draw at Rudeš and defeats at Dinamo, Istra, Osijek and Hajduk, with eight goals conceded and three scored on the road. Varaždin are also the opponent who put four past Slaven in Koprivnica in August, which sharpens the difficulty of the venue. Treat the derby framing as the club's own motivational context and pressure rather than a plan for how Slaven will set up.
- Slaven have drawn one and lost four of their five away league matches this season, taking a single point at Rudeš.
- The away defeats came at Dinamo (0-2), Istra 1961 (0-3), Osijek (0-3) and Hajduk Split (0-1).
- The fixture is the north derby, which the club describes as a match in which points are not only points.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 13:06 · Europe/Bucharest
The scoreline matters less than its source: Dinamo kept receiving the ball already facing Slaven's back four, which is the coach's own account of a hollow central block. Varaždin's attacking play has leaned on carriers such as Aleksa Latković and Iuri Tavares breaking into exactly that zone, so midfield shape is the specific problem to solve. The counterweight is that Slaven beat Rijeka 4-1 at home a week earlier with broadly the same group, so the collapse may be opponent-specific rather than structural.
- Slaven lost 5-1 at home to Dinamo on 18 October, trailing 3-1 at half-time.
- Čabraja after the match: "We had big problems in the middle. We allowed Dinamo to come out facing our back line, and that is a sign that we were hollow in midfield."
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 13:06 · Europe/Bucharest
Varaždin's position was built on narrow wins and clean sheets, and Poljud was their first league defeat since 22 August, so the relevant question is whether a young side that had been turning single goals into points resets immediately at home. Slaven arrive with the worst recent defensive run in the division, which gives Varaždin a favourable setting to rebuild momentum. One late concession is a thin basis for reading a slump, and the previous home league match against Osijek also finished goalless.
- Varaždin travelled to Hajduk on 18 October as the division's second-placed team with first place at stake.
- Acapandie's 86th-minute header gave Hajduk a 1-0 win and stretched their lead at the top.
- A week earlier Luka Mamić's goal gave Varaždin a 1-0 win at Lokomotiva, their fifth clean sheet of the league season.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 13:06 · Europe/Bucharest
Varaždin scored three times in 18 first-half minutes in Koprivnica, the kind of spell a midfield that lets opponents face its back line still concedes. Slaven's results since have swung from a 4-1 home win over Rijeka to a 5-1 home loss to Dinamo, so the August afternoon is not simply obsolete as a stylistic guide. The counterweight is venue and stage: it was Slaven's home game in round two, so treat it as an indicator of match shape rather than a repeatable scoreline.
- Varaždin won 4-1 away to Slaven on 9 August and led 3-0 at half-time.
- Ivan Canjuga scored twice, Luka Mamić and Aleksa Latković also scored, and Ilija Nestorovski replied for Slaven in the 71st minute.
- The win gave Varaždin six points from their opening two matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 13:06 · Europe/BucharestMatch report, Slaven Belupo 1-4 Varaždinwww.24sata.hr · 9 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Varaždin's home record and Slaven's away returns point to a home win, with the draw the main alternative.
- Varaždin are 3rd with 18 points and have 3 wins and 2 draws in 5 home league games.
- They have conceded 1 goal in 5 home league matches.
- Slaven have 1 point from 5 away league matches.
- Varaždin won the August meeting 4-1 in Koprivnica.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNK VarazdinEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Both sides' first-half scoring rates are low, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Varaždin average 0.5 first-half goals at home.
- Slaven average 0.5 first-half goals away.
- Varaždin's last two home league matches were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Varaždin's home second-half scoring and Slaven's away second-half concessions favour the home side after the break.
- Varaždin average 1.0 second-half goal at home and concede 0.33.
- Slaven average 0.83 second-half goals against away.
- Slaven lost 5-1 at home to Dinamo, conceding twice after half-time.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostNK VarazdinEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Varaždin's home record and Slaven's away returns point to a home win, with the draw the main alternative. Varaždin's low-scoring home games and Slaven's limited away attack keep a draw plausible.
- Varaždin are 3rd with 18 points and have 3 wins and 2 draws in 5 home league games.
- They have conceded 1 goal in 5 home league matches.
- Varaždin have drawn 2 of 5 home league games.
- Varaždin's last two home league matches were 0-0.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostNK Varazdin or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Varaždin's home first-half defence and Slaven's away first-half concessions give the home side the better chance of leading at the break. Both sides' first-half scoring rates are low, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Varaždin average 0.5 first-half goals at home and concede 0.17.
- Slaven average 1.0 first-half goals against away.
- Varaždin average 0.5 first-half goals at home.
- Slaven average 0.5 first-half goals away.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonNK Varazdin or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Varaždin's home games have been tight and Slaven rarely score away, so under 2.5 is more likely.
- Varaždin have conceded 1 goal in 5 home league matches.
- Varaždin's last two home league games ended 0-0.
- Slaven have scored 2 goals in 5 away league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Slaven's away scoring record and Varaždin's home clean sheets make both teams scoring unlikely.
- Varaždin have four clean sheets in five home league games.
- Slaven have scored in only one of five away league games.
- Varaždin failed to score in two of five home league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Varaždin have not been high-scoring at home, so under 1.5 home goals is slightly favoured.
- Varaždin's home league average is 1.2 goals per game.
- They failed to score in two of five home league games.
- Slaven's away league games have conceded 11 goals.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonNK Varazdin under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Slaven's away scoring is thin and Varaždin's home defence is strong, so under 1.5 away goals is favoured.
- Slaven have scored 2 goals in 5 away league games.
- They failed to score in four of those five.
- Varaždin have conceded 1 goal in 5 home league games.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSlaven Koprivnica under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Slaven's away attack has rarely produced, so Varaždin keeping a clean sheet is the more likely outcome.
- Slaven have scored in only one of five away league games.
- Varaždin have four clean sheets in five home league games.
- Varaždin conceded once in five home league matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSlaven Koprivnica not to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half goal rates make over 1.5 a slight favourite.
- Varaždin's home second-half total averages 1.33 goals.
- Slaven's away second-half total averages 1.5 goals.
- Slaven conceded twice after half-time in the 5-1 loss to Dinamo.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner counts from both sides' home and away splits point to over 8.5.
- Varaždin's home matches average 10.4 corners.
- Slaven's away matches average 9.2 corners.
- Varaždin average 5.4 corners at home.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slaven's away games are busy enough to make over 25.5 slightly more likely than not.
- Varaždin's home matches average 23.6 total shots.
- Slaven's away matches average 26.6 total shots.
- Slaven's away opponents average 17.2 shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 25.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card counts from both sides' relevant splits point to over 3.5.
- Varaždin's matches average 3.9 cards.
- Slaven's away matches average 4.0 cards.
- Both teams average fewer than two yellow cards but opponents draw more.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance56%