Slaven Koprivnica4HNK Rijeka1

HT 1–1Sun 11 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–931%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 41%–59%ShotsShots 13–16On targetOn target 6–5CornersCorners 3–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 02:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Fifth-placed Rijeka have not won any of their three away league games this season, scoring once, while Slaven have taken six of their seven points at home.

That points to a tight, low-scoring game that Slaven avoid losing. Three of the reviewed prices offer value: Slaven to win or draw at 2.15, the draw at 3.80 and under 2.5 goals at 2.05. Rijeka to win at 1.62 asks more than their league away form justifies.

Context

Rijeka arrive as the stronger side and as the fifth-placed team, but their away column is why this trip is not straightforward: two draws, one defeat and a single goal in three league away matches. Four wins from four at home, with 12 goals scored, show what they do when they set the terms. That split is the clearest reason Slaven have a case for avoiding defeat.
- 2026 HNL season, 7 matches played by Rijeka: home record 4W 0D 0L, 12 goals scored, 4 conceded.
- 2026 HNL away record: 3 matches, 0W 2D 1L, 1 goal scored, 3 conceded.
Slaven's season has been built at Koprivnica: six of their seven points came from three home league matches, two of them wins. The away column — one draw, four defeats, two goals scored, 11 conceded in five games — is the other half of that picture and shows how much the venue has mattered. The caveat is that they have still conceded five goals in those three home games, so the home record is not a clean defensive one.
- 2026 HNL, 8 matches played by Slaven Koprivnica: 2W 1D 5L, 7 goals scored, 16 conceded, 7 points.
- Home: 3 matches, 2W 0D 1L, 5 scored, 5 conceded. Away: 5 matches, 0W 1D 4L, 2 scored, 11 conceded.
Rijeka's 2-0 win at this ground on 4 April 2026 is the most recent league meeting between the clubs and shows they can take three points at Koprivnica without conceding. It does not erase Slaven's two home league wins from three this season, which is why the fixture reads closer than the seven-point gap in the table. It is history rather than a forecast: the same head-to-head series also includes two draws.
- 4 April 2026, HNL at Koprivnica: Slaven Belupo 0-2 HNK Rijeka — one match from the supplied five-meeting head-to-head series.
Koprivnica is a small HNL host city, so a deliberately tiered price list aimed at members and local pensioners points to an accessible, well-attended home crowd for this fixture. Slaven Belupo's home support can matter against a stronger Rijeka side that is used to setting the tempo, and visiting clubs often face a tighter, noisier ground here. The pricing itself does not reveal expected attendance or team selection, so treat it as atmosphere context rather than a playing-condition change.
- Slaven Belupo set one-off ticket prices for the SuperSport HNL round 9 home match against HNK Rijeka, scheduled for Sunday, 11 October 2026 at 18:00.
- Regular admission costs €15.00, club members pay €7.50, and Koprivnica-area pensioners who are club members pay €3.50.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 02:49 · Europe/BucharestNK Slaven Belupo one-off ticket priceswww.nk-slaven-belupo.hr · 6 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rijeka's stronger squad and historical edge make them favorites despite poor away league results.
- Rijeka rank 5th with 14 points, Slaven 8th with 7.
- Rijeka won 3 of last 5 H2H, including 2-0 away at Slaven.
- Rijeka overall 8W 3D 3L, GF 1.71, GA 1.0.
- Rijeka away overall 2W 3D 2L, but league away 0W 2D 1L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHNK RijekaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Rijeka's first-half scoring and Slaven's first-half concessions favour an away lead at the break.
- Rijeka first-half GF 1.07, GA 0.36 overall.
- Rijeka away first-half GF 0.71, GA 0.43.
- Slaven first-half GA 1.0 overall, 1.0 at home.
- Rijeka scored 2+ first-half goals in 3 of last 6 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostHNK RijekaEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves are often tight, and the metrics are similar.
- Second-half goals averages are close: Slaven 1.56 total, Rijeka 1.29 total.
- Rijeka away second-half GA 0.43.
- Slaven home second-half GA 0.67.
- No H2H second-half data.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rijeka's away league struggles and Slaven's home resilience make a draw plausible. Rijeka's stronger squad and historical edge make them favorites despite poor away league results.
- Rijeka away league: 0W 2D 1L, with 1 goal scored and 3 conceded.
- Slaven home league: 2W 0D 1L, but conceded 5 in 3.
- Rijeka rank 5th with 14 points, Slaven 8th with 7.
- Rijeka won 3 of last 5 H2H, including 2-0 away at Slaven.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or HNK RijekaEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.14
The read
Rijeka's strong first-half scoring makes a lead likely, but half-time draws are common in tight away matches. Rijeka's first-half scoring and Slaven's first-half concessions favour an away lead at the break.
- Rijeka first-half GF 1.07, GA 0.36; Slaven 0.56, 1.0.
- Rijeka away first-half GF 0.71, GA 0.43.
- Rijeka first-half GF 1.07, GA 0.36 overall.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or HNK RijekaEstimated chance85%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Rijeka's away league scoring struggles and low-scoring H2H point to under 2.5.
- H2H last 5: four matches had 2 or fewer goals.
- Rijeka away league: 1 goal scored in 3 matches.
- Rijeka overall GA 1.0, with 6 clean sheets in 14.
- Slaven overall GA 1.78, but home GA 1.67.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Slaven usually score at home and Rijeka have enough attacking quality to score.
- Slaven scored in all 3 home matches.
- Rijeka scored in 4 of 7 away matches.
- Slaven conceded in 2 of 3 home matches.
- H2H last 5: both scored in 2.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams' first-half goal averages suggest at least one goal.
- Slaven first-half total goals avg 1.56.
- Rijeka first-half total avg 1.43.
- Slaven home first-half total avg 1.67.
- Rijeka away first-half total avg 1.14.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half averages sit below 1.5, favouring under.
- Slaven home second-half total avg 1.67.
- Rijeka away second-half total avg 1.0.
- Slaven overall second-half total avg 1.56.
- Rijeka overall second-half total avg 1.29.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The team corner totals average below 10.5, making under slightly more likely.
- Slaven home corners total avg 9.67.
- Rijeka away corners total avg 10.0.
- Slaven overall corners total avg 9.38.
- Rijeka overall corners total avg 9.27.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rijeka's lower away shot volume pulls the combined expectation just below the line.
- Slaven home shots total avg 31.33.
- Rijeka away shots total avg 23.25.
- Slaven overall shots total avg 28.38.
- Rijeka overall shots total avg 25.89.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 27.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined SOT averages sit below 10.5, especially in Rijeka's away matches.
- Slaven home SOT total avg 10.33.
- Rijeka away SOT total avg 7.4.
- Slaven overall SOT total avg 8.5.
- Rijeka overall SOT total avg 10.55.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages are around the line, with Slaven's matches often physical, making over slightly more likely.
- Slaven overall cards total avg 4.0.
- Rijeka overall cards total avg 3.36.
- Slaven home cards total avg 4.0.
- Rijeka away cards total avg 3.2.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance58%