HNLFull time

Predictions graded

NK Varazdin2Rudes Zagreb0

HT 0–0Sat 29 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 11–9On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 9–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 16:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Varazdin are strong favorites and have dominated Rudes historically, but the outright win odds offer no value.

The best edges are Varazdin -1 Asian Handicap (+2 points) and Both Teams to Score No (+1.4 points), though Rudes' new signings add risk. Avoid Over 2.5 goals and Over 0.5 first-half goals due to negative value.

Context

NK Varazdin sit third in the HNL with nine points from four matches.
They have won both home games, defeating HNK Rijeka 2-0 on 2026-08-16 and HNK Hajduk Split 2-1 on 2026-08-02. This home strength could matter against Rudes Zagreb, who have lost both away matches this season.
- NK Varazdin beat HNK Rijeka 2-0 at home on 2026-08-16.
- NK Varazdin beat HNK Hajduk Split 2-1 at home on 2026-08-02.
J. Silić, NK Varazdin's goalkeeper, has started all five recent team fixtures with available lineups.
With Oliver Zelenika now at APOEL and Robby McCrorie only just joining training, Silić is the clear incumbent for this fixture. His early-season opportunity has been handled well according to coach Nikola Šafarić, which points to continuity in Varaždin's defensive organisation.
- On 27 August, Nikola Šafarić said Silić had received the opening-season opportunity and performed very well.
- Šafarić confirmed Zelenika's move to APOEL and said Robby McCrorie would complete his first Varaždin training session that Thursday.
- J. Silić started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:32 · Europe/BucharestNK Varaždin pre-match press conferencevarazdin.club · 27 Aug 2026
Rudes Zagreb are ninth in the HNL with three points from four matches.
They have lost both away games, falling 4-0 to Dinamo Zagreb on 2026-08-14 and 2-1 to HNK Rijeka on 2026-08-02. This away form is a concern against a strong home side like NK Varazdin.
- Rudes Zagreb lost 4-0 away to Dinamo Zagreb on 2026-08-14.
- Rudes Zagreb lost 2-1 away to HNK Rijeka on 2026-08-02.
Rudeš Zagreb have added Kristijan Lovrić and Junior Fernandes before the trip to Varaždin.
Coach Peternac hopes to use both arrivals quickly, but no starting role has been confirmed. Their availability introduces a new attacking-selection variable for Rudeš after their first league win, though the exact effect on roles and chance creation remains uncertain.
- NK Rudeš announced on 24 August that Kristijan Lovrić and Junior Fernandes had joined the club before the Varaždin trip.
- Sportske novosti reported on 28 August that Peternac was looking to use both additions immediately, while his quoted comments left the precise timing open.
ReportedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:32 · Europe/BucharestNK Rudeš signing announcementnk-rudes.hr · 24 Aug 2026Sportske novosti pre-match reportwww.jutarnji.hr · 28 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

NK Varazdin

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

NK Varazdin's strong home form and Rudes' poor away record, combined with the historical H2H dominance, make a home win highly likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
NK Varazdin's strong home form and Rudes' poor away record, combined with the historical H2H dominance, make a home win highly likely.
- NK Varazdin home record this season: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 4 goals scored, 1 conceded
- Rudes away record this season: 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, 1 goal scored, 6 conceded
- H2H last 4 HNL meetings: NK Varazdin won 3, drew 1, Rudes scored 0 goals
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNK VarazdinEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given NK Varazdin's superior form and the historical pattern of Rudes failing to beat them, the double chance of home win or draw is very safe.
- NK Varazdin unbeaten in last 4 H2H meetings (3 wins, 1 draw)
- Rudes have lost 3 of their last 4 league matches
- NK Varazdin have won 3 of their last 4 league matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNK Varazdin or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
NK Varazdin's ability to win comfortably at home and Rudes' defensive issues make a -1 handicap plausible, though not a certainty.
- NK Varazdin won 3 of last 4 H2H meetings by 2+ goals
- Rudes lost away matches this season by 4-0 and 2-1
- NK Varazdin average 1.9 goals scored per match
BetBugs · Asian HandicapwonNK Varazdin -1Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
NK Varazdin's tendency to start strong at home gives them an edge to lead at the break.
- NK Varazdin led at half-time in 60% of recent matches
- Rudes trailed at half-time in 33% of recent matches
- NK Varazdin scored first-half goals in 3 of last 4 league matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostNK VarazdinEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
NK Varazdin's ability to control matches from the start and Rudes' poor form support a home win at both half-time and full-time.
- NK Varazdin led at half-time in 60% of recent matches
- NK Varazdin won 3 of last 4 league matches
- Rudes lost 3 of last 4 league matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostNK Varazdin/NK VarazdinEstimated chance48%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rudes' defensive frailty and NK Varazdin's attacking output suggest a decent chance of at least three goals, though the H2H clean-sheet trend tempers confidence.
- NK Varazdin average 1.9 goals scored per match in recent form
- Rudes average 2.0 goals conceded per match in recent form
- Rudes' last 4 HNL matches have seen 5, 4, 7, and 3 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The historical H2H pattern of Rudes not scoring against NK Varazdin, combined with their poor away scoring, makes a clean sheet for the home side likely.
- Rudes failed to score in all 4 H2H meetings against NK Varazdin
- NK Varazdin have kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 4 league matches
- Rudes have scored only 1 goal in 2 away matches this season
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The strong H2H clean-sheet record and Rudes' scoring struggles support a home clean sheet.
- NK Varazdin kept clean sheets in all 4 H2H meetings against Rudes
- Rudes have failed to score in 2 of their 4 league matches this season
- NK Varazdin conceded only 1 goal in 2 home matches this season
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonRudes Zagreb not to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and the H2H suggests early goals are common.
- NK Varazdin average 1.1 first-half goals per match
- Rudes average 0.9 first-half goals per match
- In H2H, 3 of 4 meetings had a goal in the first half
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been productive for both teams, especially with Rudes' defensive lapses late in games.
- NK Varazdin average 0.8 second-half goals per match
- Rudes average 1.0 second-half goals per match
- Rudes' last 3 league matches had 3+ second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Corner counts are modest for both teams, but Rudes' away games have seen higher totals, making over 8.5 a slight lean.
- NK Varazdin average 2.5 corners per match, Rudes average 2.8
- Combined average corners in recent matches: 5.3
- Rudes' away matches this season had 8 and 8 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average close to two yellows each, and the competitive nature of the match could push the total over 3.5 cards.
- NK Varazdin average 1.7 yellow cards per match
- Rudes average 1.8 yellow cards per match
- Combined average cards in recent matches: 3.5
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 12% leaves no cushion vs our 10% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

W0-2RudesvNK VarazdinApr 22, 2024HNL

W1-0NK VarazdinvRudesFeb 9, 2024HNL

D0-0RudesvNK VarazdinOct 28, 2023HNL

W2-0NK VarazdinvRudesAug 12, 2023HNL

W0-1RudesvNK VarazdinJul 12, 2023FRI

NK Varazdin unbeaten in 5 meetingsNK Varazdin: 5 clean sheets1.2 goals/game avg

League Table

HNL 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	NK Varazdin Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	4	3	0	1	9-5	9	LWWW
9	Rudes Zagreb	4	1	0	3	6-13	3	WLLL

6pt gap between teamsNK Varazdin leads the league

Recent Form

NK Varazdin

L1-3Dinamo ZagrebAug 22HNL

W2-0HNK RijekaAug 16HNL

W4-1NK Slaven BelupoAug 9HNL

W2-1HNK Hajduk SplitAug 2HNL

L0-2FK JablonecJul 30UEF

W3-2FK JablonecJul 23UEF

W2-0BeltinciJul 16FRI

W3-1KustosijaJul 16FRI

W3-1Bihor OradeaJul 12FRI

W1-0RadomljeJul 10FRI

W1-0CSKA 1948Jul 4FRI

W2-1FC VoluntariJul 2FRI

L1-2NK Lokomotiva ZagrebJun 27FRI

W2-0Istra 1961May 23HNL

W2-0VukovarMay 15HNL

Rudes Zagreb

W4-1NK Lokomotiva ZagrebAug 21HNL

L0-4Dinamo ZagrebAug 14HNL

L1-6NK OsijekAug 8HNL

L1-2HNK RijekaAug 2HNL

D1-1GöztepeJul 26FRI

L0-5Shakhtar DonetskJul 19FRI

W3-1Olimpija LjubljanaJul 5FRI

L3-4CukarickiJul 1FRI

W3-1SesveteMay 29FIR

W3-0DugopoljeMay 23FIR

L2-3HNK CibaliaMay 15FIR

W3-0Karlovac 1919May 8FIR

D1-1Dubrava ZagrebMay 2FIR

W2-0Croatia ZmijavciApr 26FIR

W2-1HrvaceApr 19FIR

Squad & Injuries

NK Varazdin

29 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Rudes Zagreb

42 available

Attackers12

Midfielders12

Defenders14

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

NK Varazdin -1

No

NK Varazdin

NK Varazdin or Draw

NK Varazdin

NK Varazdin at half-time / NK Varazdin at full-time

Over 0.5

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Rudes Zagreb

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

NK Varazdin

Rudes Zagreb

Squad & Injuries

NK Varazdin

Rudes Zagreb