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Predictions graded

Livingston1Arbroath0

HT 0–0Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges1–420%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 10:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Livingston's three home league games without a win meet an Arbroath side with one away win all season and no goal in their last four league trips.

A home win is the likeliest shape of the afternoon, but 1.3 for it asks too much. Both teams to score – No at 1.75 and the draw at 5.0 are the two prices that hold up.

Context

Whelan was dismissed in September after nine games and two wins, and Livingston's own channels have since put Martindale in front of the cameras at every pre-match briefing, including the trip to Dunfermline on 17 October. A club without a permanent head coach hands selection, in-game changes and man-management to a sporting director whose recruitment is already the target of supporter anger after back-to-back home league defeats by Ayr United and Partick Thistle. A caretaker bounce is the easy assumption, but the only league win since the change came at Raith Rovers on 25 September.
- Glenn Whelan left the Livingston head coach post in September after nine games, two of them wins.
- David Martindale, the club's sporting director, fronted Livingston's pre-match interviews before the Ayr United, Partick Thistle and Dunfermline fixtures.
- Martindale gave the post-match reaction after the 2-0 win at Raith Rovers on 25 September, the only league victory in the four matches since the change.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:35 · Europe/Bucharest
Seven absentees limit rotation and bench options, and the named players sit mostly in defence and midfield, so the constraint is on how long Arbroath can press and how quickly they can break rather than on who leads the line. That matters against a Livingston side whose home league defeats to Ayr United and Partick Thistle both came after losing control of midfield. The count dates from 10 October and nothing published since confirms who has returned, so it should widen the range of plausible line-ups rather than fix one.
- Scott McGill joined a seven-strong Arbroath injury list for the 10 October home match against Morton.
- Bonnar's knock before the 25 September Queen's Park fixture added him to a list that already included O'Brien, Magennis, Reilly and Morrison.
To watchSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:35 · Europe/Bucharest
Livingston spent roughly 46 minutes of that match a man down, and the only goal came from the spot two minutes into the second half, so the 1-0 scoreline reflects a dismissal rather than an even contest. The temptation is to read the rematch as another tight, low-scoring afternoon, but a red card that early distorts both the scoreline and the shot count. What transfers is narrower: Arbroath have already protected a one-goal lead against this opponent, and Livingston's discipline is the variable to watch given the sending-off in the same fixture two months earlier.
- Arbroath beat Livingston 1-0 at Gayfield Park on 29 August 2026.
- Gavin Reilly scored a 48th-minute penalty.
- Livingston's C. MacPherson was sent off in the 44th minute, and Arbroath's S. Constable received a second yellow on 85 minutes.
- The attendance was 1,624.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:35 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport live coverage of Arbroath v Livingstonwww.bbc.com · 29 Aug 2026
Six away league matches have produced one win, two goals scored and 13 conceded, so Arbroath arrive with little margin for error. Livingston have conceded in each of their last three home league games, which is the visitors' clearest opening. It is a six-game sample, not a settled level.
- Championship standings, 23 October 2026: Arbroath's away record is 6 played, 1 win, 0 draws, 5 defeats, 2 goals scored, 13 conceded.
- Overall league record: 11 played, 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, 7 goals scored, 17 conceded, 11 points, 8th place.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

−8.0ppshort

Both teams' first-half records point to at least one goal before the break.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.65fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 60.6%

−6.6ppshort

Livingston's home scoring and Arbroath's away concessions make a higher-scoring game plausible.

First Half WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Livingston

1.70fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 58.8%

−6.8ppshort

Livingston's first-half scoring at home and Arbroath's slow away starts point to a home lead.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Livingston's home scoring and Arbroath's away defeats point to a home win.
- Livingston average 2.29 goals at home and Arbroath concede 2.29 per away match.
- Arbroath's away league record is one win and five defeats with two goals scored and 13 conceded.
- Arbroath have seven players on their unavailable list.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLivingstonEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Livingston's first-half scoring at home and Arbroath's slow away starts point to a home lead.
- Livingston average 1.14 first-half goals at home; Arbroath concede 1.43 first-half goals away.
- Arbroath average only 0.14 first-half goals away.
- Arbroath trailed at half-time in five of their last six league matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLivingstonEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Livingston's second-half scoring at home and Arbroath's low away output favour a home second-half win.
- Livingston average 1.14 second-half goals at home; Arbroath concede 0.86 second-half goals away.
- Arbroath average 0.14 second-half goals away.
- Livingston scored twice after half-time in the 4-1 win at Morton.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonLivingstonEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Livingston's home scoring and Arbroath's away defeats point to a home win. Livingston's recent home dip and Arbroath's poor away form keep a draw in view.
- Livingston average 2.29 goals at home and Arbroath concede 2.29 per away match.
- Arbroath's away league record is one win and five defeats with two goals scored and 13 conceded.
- Livingston have drawn one of their last three home league games.
- Both teams sit mid-table with 14 and 11 points.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLivingston or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Livingston's first-half scoring at home and Arbroath's slow away starts point to a home lead. Livingston's tendency to be level at half-time and Arbroath's slow away starts keep a first-half draw possible.
- Livingston average 1.14 first-half goals at home; Arbroath concede 1.43 first-half goals away.
- Arbroath average only 0.14 first-half goals away.
- Livingston drew the first half in three of their last six league matches.
- Arbroath have not led at half-time in any of their last four away league matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonLivingston or DrawEstimated chance85%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Livingston's home scoring and Arbroath's away concessions make a higher-scoring game plausible.
- Livingston average 2.29 goals at home and Arbroath concede 2.29 per away match.
- Livingston's last three home league games produced 3, 3 and 4 goals.
- Arbroath have conceded 13 goals in six away league games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Arbroath's away scoring record makes at least one blank the more likely outcome.
- Arbroath have scored only two goals in six away league games.
- Arbroath failed to score in their last four away league matches.
- Livingston have kept six clean sheets in 13 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Livingston's home scoring rate and Arbroath's away concessions favour two or more home goals.
- Livingston average 2.29 goals at home.
- Arbroath concede 2.29 goals per away match.
- Livingston scored twice in their 2-2 home draw with Inverness.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostLivingston over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Arbroath's away scoring record gives Livingston a good chance of a home clean sheet.
- Arbroath have scored two goals in six away league games.
- Arbroath failed to score in their last four away league matches.
- Livingston have three clean sheets in seven home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonArbroath not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams' first-half records point to at least one goal before the break.
- Arbroath's last six league matches all had a first-half goal.
- Livingston's home first-half scoring average is 1.14.
- Arbroath concede 1.43 first-half goals per away match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Arbroath's low second-half scoring and recent half totals keep the second half under one and a half goals more likely.
- Arbroath average 0.14 second-half goals away.
- Arbroath's last six league matches produced only one second half with more than 1.5 goals.
- Livingston average 1.14 second-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance64%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 1W

L1-0ArbroathvLivingstonAug 29, 2026CHA

W4-0LivingstonvArbroathJul 5, 2021FRI

2.5 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Livingston	11	4	2	5	14-11	14	DLLWD
8	Arbroath	11	3	2	6	7-17	11	LLLWL

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Livingston

D0-0DunfermlineOct 17CHA

L1-2PartickOct 10CHA

L1-2Ayr UtdOct 3CHA

W2-0Raith RoversSep 25CHA

D2-2Inverness CTSep 19CHA

W4-1MortonSep 11CHA

L0-1StenhousemuirSep 4CHA

L0-1ArbroathAug 29CHA

W2-0DunfermlineAug 22CHA

L0-2PartickAug 7CHA

W2-0Queen's ParkAug 1CHA

W8-0Forfar AthleticJul 21LEA

W2-0BrechinJul 14LEA

W2-1Heart Of MidlothianJul 10FRI

W3-0Alloa AthleticJun 30FRI

Arbroath

L0-2Inverness CTOct 17CHA

L1-2MortonOct 10CHA

L0-3PartickOct 3CHA

W2-1Queen's ParkSep 25CHA

L0-1StenhousemuirSep 19CHA

L0-4Raith RoversSep 12CHA

D1-1DunfermlineSep 5CHA

W1-0LivingstonAug 29CHA

W2-1MortonAug 22CHA

D0-0Inverness CTAug 8CHA

L0-2Ayr UtdAug 1CHA

W1-0Stirling AlbionJul 25LEA

L0-2MontroseJul 21LEA

L0-3Dundee UtdJul 18LEA

L1-2Heart Of MidlothianJul 14FRI

Squad & Injuries

Livingston

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Arbroath

24 available

Attackers4

Midfielders12

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 2.5

Livingston

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Livingston

Arbroath

Squad & Injuries

Livingston

Arbroath