IA Akranes4Keflavik4

HT 3–2Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 11:32 · Europe/Bucharest

ÍA Akranes close the season at home to a Keflavík side two points behind them, with the hosts' 4-2 in Reykjavik on Monday against a Keflavík run of one point from five league games.

ÍA's home scoring makes them the likelier winner, but 1.5 does not pay for the risk that Keflavík's five-win head-to-head record repeats. Keflavík at 4.33 and no first-half goals for both sides at 1.4 offer something.

Context

The final round pairs ÍA with the club sitting last, and the title had already gone to Breidablik on 19 October, so the only unresolved table question at this fixture is at the bottom. Keflavík's position means they arrive needing something from the game, which argues for a more open contest than a mid-table closer and leaves room for an ÍA attack that scored four at Fram on Monday. The bottom-place detail rests on a betting-analysis post rather than a published table, so how much Keflavík actually need from this game is not established here.
- ÍA Akranes play their final match of the 2026 season at home to Keflavík on Saturday 24 October.
- Keflavík go into the last round bottom of the Besta deild.
- Breidablik took the 2026 title on 19 October, five days before the final round.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 11:29 · Europe/Bucharest
That July night is the only time in ÍA's recent record that they have conceded five, and it came against the same defence they face again on Saturday. ÍA have since answered with four-goal performances in wins over Breidablik and Fram, so the 5-2 reads as an outlier evening rather than a settled mismatch. The venue flips this time, putting the burden of breaking down a bottom side on ÍA rather than on Keflavík's counter-attack.
- On 20 July 2026 at Keflavíkurvöllur, Keflavík beat ÍA Akranes 5-2 in the Úrvalsdeild.
- E. Ragnarsson scored twice, with B. Baxter, S. Ljubicic (penalty) and M. Al Ghoul also scoring for Keflavík; V. Jónsson (penalty) and R. Thrastarson scored for ÍA.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 11:29 · Europe/BucharestSportpul match centresportpul.com · 20 Jul 2026
Late-October weather in Iceland has already reshaped ÍA's run-in, with the Fram trip shifted a day, and the closer is now listed for the town's hall rather than a standard league pitch. If the game is staged indoors, wind and driving rain stop being variables in how it is played, which tends to suit the side wanting to keep the ball down. The venue detail rests on a single supporter account, and no league or club listing was available to check it against.
- ÍA Akranes' match against Keflavík on Saturday 24 October is listed for Akraneshöllin in Akranes.
- ÍA's trip to Fram was moved from Sunday 18 to Monday 19 October because of expected poor weather.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 11:29 · Europe/Bucharest
The comeback turned ÍA's game in hand into three points, and the two added-time goals made the scoreline flatter them more than the preceding 90 minutes did. The cost is timing: ÍA played on Monday night while Keflavík finished on Saturday afternoon, so the hosts have two fewer recovery days before the last round. Viktor Jónsson began that match on the bench and still scored, so the forward line that started the comeback is not necessarily the one that starts the finale.
- ÍA Akranes won 4-2 at Fram Reykjavík on 19 October, with Baldvin Þór Berndsen scoring twice.
- Rafael Máni Þrástarson and Viktor Jónsson scored in added time, and Fram's Freyr Sigurðsson was sent off for a late challenge on Guðmundur Þórarinsson.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 11:29 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IA's home scoring and Keflavik's poor away results make an IA win the most likely single outcome.
- IA home split: 4W-2D-2L, averaging 2.25 goals for and 1.25 against.
- Keflavik away split: 1W-0D-6L, averaging 1.00 scored and 2.43 conceded.
- Keflavik have won all five listed head-to-head meetings, including 5-2 in July.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIA AkranesEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.85
The read
IA's stronger first-half scoring at home and Keflavik's low away first-half output make an IA half-time lead the most likely result.
- IA average 1.125 first-half goals at home and concede 0.50.
- Keflavik average 0.429 first-half goals away and concede 1.00.
- IA led at half-time in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonIA AkranesEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IA's stronger second-half scoring at home and Keflavik's away second-half concession rate make an IA second-half win the most likely result.
- IA average 1.125 second-half goals at home and concede 0.75.
- Keflavik average 0.571 second-half goals away and concede 1.429.
- IA scored in the second half in all six of their recent matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostIA AkranesEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IA's home scoring and Keflavik's poor away results make an IA win the most likely single outcome. Keflavik's head-to-head dominance and away scoring keep an away win live despite their poor away results.
- IA home split: 4W-2D-2L, averaging 2.25 goals for and 1.25 against.
- Keflavik away split: 1W-0D-6L, averaging 1.00 scored and 2.43 conceded.
- Keflavik have won all five listed head-to-head meetings.
- The July meeting finished 5-2 to Keflavik.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostIA Akranes or KeflavikEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IA's stronger first-half scoring at home and Keflavik's low away first-half output make an IA half-time lead the most likely result. A level first half is plausible because neither side's first-half scoring average reaches one goal per game.
- IA average 1.125 first-half goals at home and concede 0.50.
- Keflavik average 0.429 first-half goals away and concede 1.00.
- IA's overall first-half goals average is 0.93; Keflavik's is 0.67.
- IA concede 0.80 first-half goals overall; Keflavik concede 0.73.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonIA Akranes or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams' season averages and the high-scoring July meeting point to at least three goals.
- IA tracked matches average 4.27 total goals.
- Keflavik tracked matches average 3.60 total goals.
- The July meeting produced seven goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Both sides have repeatedly scored and conceded, so both teams finding the net is well supported.
- Both teams scored in 13 of IA's 15 tracked matches.
- Both teams scored in 11 of Keflavik's 15 tracked matches.
- Both teams scored in all six of each side's recent matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Recent matches and both teams' first-half averages make at least one first-half goal likely.
- All six of IA's last six matches had at least one first-half goal.
- Five of Keflavik's last six had at least one first-half goal.
- IA's home first-half total averages 1.625 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
A no is well supported because Keflavik rarely score before half-time and IA have kept several recent first halves tight.
- Keflavik scored in the first half in only one of their last six matches.
- IA conceded a first-half goal in three of their last six.
- Keflavik's away first-half scoring average is 0.429.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half totals and recent scoring make at least two second-half goals more likely than not.
- IA's home second-half total averages 1.875 goals.
- Keflavik's away second-half total averages 2.00 goals.
- IA scored in the second half in all six recent matches; Keflavik in five of six.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance56%