ÚrvalsdeildFull time

Predictions graded

Reykjavik5IA Akranes1

HT 3–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions14–0100%

Edges11–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 00:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect goals in this immediate rematch, with Over 3.5 goals offering the only clear betting edge (+5.5 points at 1.38).

Avoid the heavily priced Reykjavik win and BTTS markets, as the odds overstate their likelihood given IA Akranes' hat-trick hero Viktor Jónsson and Reykjavik's defensive absences.

Context

KR Reykjavik are third in the Úrvalsdeild with 44 points from 22 matches. Their home record is the strongest part of their season.
They have not lost at home in the league, winning 8 and drawing 3 while scoring 41 goals. IA Akranes have lost 5 of 11 away matches and conceded 26 goals on the road. This contrast suggests KR Reykjavik can control the match, but IA Akranes' recent away win at IBV Vestmannaeyjar shows they can compete.
- KR Reykjavik home record: 8 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses, 41 goals scored, 21 conceded.
- IA Akranes away record: 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses, 20 goals scored, 26 conceded.
Reykjavik defender H. Tomasson started all five recent fixtures with available lineups.
The reported suspension removes him from selection for the first top-six fixture. KR must adjust their defensive options against the same opponent seven days after the reverse meeting, with no direct replacement named in the evidence.
- Fótbolti.net reported that Hrafn Tómasson received a yellow card against ÍA on 6 September.
- The report states that he will serve a suspension when KR host ÍA in round 23.
- H. Tomasson started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 00:44 · Europe/BucharestFótbolti.net suspension reportwww.fotbolti.net · 7 Sep 2026
ÍA forward V. Jónsson scored all three goals in the 3-1 win over KR on 6 September.
The immediate rematch again tests KR's ability to contain his pressing and hold-up contribution. ÍA coach Lárus Orri Sigurðarson said Jónsson leads the press and holds the ball during build-up, so KR's defensive organisation must account for that focal point.
- Vísir recorded Viktor Jónsson's three goals in ÍA's 3-1 win over KR on 6 September.
- ÍA coach Lárus Orri Sigurðarson said Jónsson leads the press and holds the ball during their build-up.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 00:44 · Europe/BucharestVísir match reportwww.visir.is · 6 Sep 2026Fótbolti.net post-match interviewfotbolti.net · 6 Sep 2026
This is the first fixture after the league's split into top-six and bottom-six sections.
ÍA's 3-1 win over KR on 6 September secured their place in the top section, so both sides now face only top-six opposition for the run-in. The split turns this immediate rematch into the opening fixture of a top-six-only run-in, sharpening the competitive incentive.
- Fótbolti.net reported that KR host ÍA in the top section's first round on 13 September.
- Vísir reported that ÍA's 3-1 win over KR secured their place in the upper section after 22 rounds.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 00:44 · Europe/BucharestFótbolti.net top-six schedulewww.fotbolti.net · 7 Sep 2026Vísir match reportwww.visir.is · 6 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 10

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Despite high confidence in both teams scoring, the odds are too short to offer value, making this a market to avoid rather than bet.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 1.5

1.50fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's estimate is slightly below the implied probability, so there is no value despite the medium confidence.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 1.5

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

The estimate is below the implied probability, indicating no value in this market.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

IA Akranes to score

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

The estimate is significantly below the implied probability, making this a poor value bet.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Reykjavik to score

1.17fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

Despite high confidence, the odds do not provide value as the implied probability exceeds the estimate.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 1.5

1.20fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

The estimate is below the implied probability, indicating no value in this market.

Total Goals AwaywonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.17fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

The estimate is nearly identical to the implied probability, leaving no edge.

Home Win to NilwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

The estimate is below the implied probability, making this a poor value bet.

Away Win to NilwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.17fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

The estimate is nearly identical to the implied probability, leaving no edge.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Reykjavik or Draw

1.21fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 83%

0.0ppshort

Reykjavik are unbeaten at home this season (8W 3D 0L) and IA Akranes have lost 5 of 11 away matches, making the home side very unlikely to lose.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik's strong home form and superior league position give them the edge, though IA Akranes' recent win in the reverse fixture adds uncertainty.
- Reykjavik are unbeaten at home this season (8W 3D 0L)
- Reykjavik sit 3rd with 44 points vs IA Akranes 5th with 30 points
- IA Akranes away record: 4W 2D 5L
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonReykjavikEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik's fortress-like home record makes them very unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance on the home side.
- Reykjavik unbeaten at home in 11 league matches
- IA Akranes have lost 5 of 11 away matches
- Reykjavik have only lost 4 of 22 league matches overall
BetBugs · Double ChancewonReykjavik or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik's superior first-half scoring and home advantage give them a slight edge to lead at the break, though IA Akranes are resilient.
- Reykjavik led at half-time in 47% of recent matches
- IA Akranes trailed at half-time in only 20% of recent matches
- Reykjavik average 1.6 first-half goals vs IA Akranes 0.9
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonReykjavikEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik's tendency to start strong and maintain leads at home makes HT/FT home win a plausible but not highly probable outcome.
- Reykjavik led at half-time in 47% of matches and won 59% overall
- IA Akranes trailed at half-time in 20% and lost 36% overall
- Home teams in this fixture have won 3 of last 5 H2H
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonReykjavik/ReykjavikEstimated chance30%

Goals10 of 10 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring recent form and their direct meetings consistently exceed 2.5 goals, driven by attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities.
- Reykjavik average 3.1 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per match over last 15
- IA Akranes average 1.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match over last 15
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 3, 8, 5, 1, 5 goals (avg 4.4)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides regularly find the net and their recent head-to-head record shows frequent goals at both ends, making BTTS highly likely.
- Reykjavik scored in 14 of last 15 matches
- IA Akranes scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start quickly, with Reykjavik especially prolific in the first half, making over 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Reykjavik average 1.6 first-half goals scored per match
- IA Akranes average 0.9 first-half goals scored per match
- Combined first-half goal average across both teams is 2.5
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The scoring rates in the second half remain high for both teams, supporting over 1.5 goals after the break.
- Reykjavik average 1.5 second-half goals scored per match (3.1 total - 1.6 first half)
- IA Akranes average 1.0 second-half goals scored per match (1.9 total - 0.9 first half)
- Combined second-half goal average is 2.5
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik rarely keep clean sheets and IA Akranes have a consistent scoring record, making a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Reykjavik conceded in 13 of last 15 matches
- IA Akranes scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- IA Akranes scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonIA Akranes to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik's potent attack and IA Akranes' defensive frailties make an away clean sheet very unlikely.
- Reykjavik scored in 14 of last 15 matches
- IA Akranes conceded in 12 of last 15 matches
- Reykjavik scored 5 goals in their last home meeting vs IA Akranes
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonReykjavik to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik's home scoring rate is exceptional, making over 1.5 home goals highly probable.
- Reykjavik average 3.1 goals per match overall
- Reykjavik average 3.7 goals per home match (41 goals in 11 home games)
- IA Akranes concede 1.8 goals per match on average
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonReykjavik over 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IA Akranes' consistent scoring and Reykjavik's defensive lapses make an away goal very likely.
- IA Akranes scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- IA Akranes average 1.9 goals per match
- Reykjavik conceded in 13 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonIA Akranes over 0.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given both teams' scoring tendencies, a home win without conceding is unlikely.
- Reykjavik kept a clean sheet in only 2 of last 15 matches
- IA Akranes failed to score in only 2 of last 15 matches
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik's scoring consistency makes an away win without conceding highly improbable.
- Reykjavik failed to score in only 1 of last 15 matches
- IA Akranes kept a clean sheet in only 3 of last 15 matches
- Reykjavik scored 5 goals in their last home meeting vs IA Akranes
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance85%