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Predictions graded

FC Augsburg1Union Berlin1

HT 0–0Sat 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 69%–31%ShotsShots 25–6On targetOn target 5–1CornersCorners 5–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 13:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Augsburg's club-record scoring start meets a Union Berlin side that has just kept two clean sheets but was routed in both away league games.

Augsburg look the side more likely to avoid defeat, though a draw is live. The quoted 1.25 on Augsburg avoiding defeat and 1.45 on at least three goals are both shorter than the form justifies, and no quoted price is worthwhile.

Context

Banks and Mounie have been missing for several weeks, and Claude-Maurice's partial integration means Augsburg's attacking rotation still leans on the young starters who faced Bayern. That matters because the club's 16-goal start has been produced by a very young front line, and Union arrive after two clean sheets. The open question is the mix: the coach's own framing was that Augsburg have both experienced and developing players and that the squad for Saturday would be assembled from that, so the experienced alternative is available rather than ruled out.
- Augsburg team news on 22 October: Noki Banks and Steve Mounie out, Alexis Claude-Maurice partially integrated, the rest of the squad available.
- Banks, Mounie, Claude-Maurice and Suso all missed the 4-3 defeat at Elversberg on 17 October.
- Augsburg started the second-youngest XI in club history against Bayern Munich on 10 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:50 · Europe/Bucharest
The two profiles meet neatly: Union's scoring is concentrated in the last dozen minutes, and Augsburg's defensive lapses are concentrated in the same window, including the 4-3 defeat at Elversberg that slipped away after half-time. For this fixture that points at the closing stages as the likely pressure point, particularly once Augsburg go to their bench. The counterweight is Union's volume: they have scored once before the 79th minute all season and were held to a goalless draw by Dortmund, so the late habit has not yet become regular scoring.
- Union Berlin have scored five Bundesliga goals this season; four came from the 79th minute onwards.
- Augsburg have conceded five goals in the final quarter-hour; only Borussia Mönchengladbach, with seven, have conceded more.
- Augsburg lost 4-3 at Elversberg on 17 October after trailing 1-3 at half-time.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:50 · Europe/BucharestBundesliga matchday 7 live ticker, Augsburg v Union Berlinwww.bundesliga.com · 23 Oct 2026
Scoring at least twice in every game is the reason this fixture reads as a test of Union's repaired defence rather than of Augsburg's attacking capacity, and the 29 shots at Elversberg show the volume behind the record. The specific limitation is conversion into results: Augsburg have now gone four league games without a win despite that output. Union's two clean sheets therefore face an attack that creates plenty but has recently been punished for the chances it concedes in return.
- Augsburg scored at least twice on all six matchdays.
- Their 16 goals at that stage are a new club Bundesliga record; the previous best was eleven.
- Augsburg took 29 shots in the 4-3 defeat at Elversberg on 17 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:50 · Europe/BucharestBundesliga matchday 7 live ticker, Augsburg v Union Berlinwww.bundesliga.com · 23 Oct 2026
The turnaround is recent and visible: seven conceded in Munich, then nothing in two league matches, with a noticeably higher defensive line part of the change. That is the direct obstacle for an Augsburg side that has scored at least twice every week. The limitation is location: both clean sheets came at home, and Union have not kept one away from Berlin in the league this season, so the new solidity has not yet travelled.
- Union conceded seven at Bayern Munich on 18 September.
- Union beat Elversberg 1-0 on 10 October and drew 0-0 with Borussia Dortmund on 17 October.
- Union's offside trap drew particular notice in the Elversberg win.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:50 · Europe/BucharestBundesliga matchday 7 live ticker, Augsburg v Union Berlinwww.bundesliga.com · 23 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Augsburg or Draw

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

−10.0ppshort

Augsburg's home solidity and Union's away blank make the home side hard to beat, even if a draw is plausible.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.45fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 69%

−5.0ppshort

Augsburg's open matches and Union's heavy defeats make a third goal more likely than not.

Double Chance First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Augsburg or Draw

1.22fair 1.45

BetBugs 69% · Market 82%

−13.0ppshort

Augsburg's home first halves have been solid, while Union often start slowly and trail at the break.

Cards Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 3.5

1.67fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 59.9%

−2.9ppshort

Union's matches are consistently card-heavy, and the physical matchup should keep the total near four.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Augsburg's home solidity and Union's away blank make the home side hard to beat, even if a draw is plausible.
- Augsburg are unbeaten at home this league season (W1 D2), scoring 7 goals in 3 home games.
- Union Berlin have lost both away league games 0-7 at Bayern and 0-4 at Leverkusen, scoring none.
- Union sit 17th with 5 goals scored and 17 conceded in 6 league matches.
- Augsburg have scored at least twice on all six league matchdays.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFC Augsburg or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Augsburg's home first halves have been solid, while Union often start slowly and trail at the break.
- Augsburg average 1.0 first-half goal for and 0.25 against in home matches.
- Union average 0.29 first-half goals for and 1.29 against overall.
- Union have conceded 2.0 first-half goals per away game on average.
- Union have scored only two first-half league goals in seven matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFC Augsburg or DrawEstimated chance69%

Goals1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides do much of their scoring and conceding after the break, pointing to at least two second-half goals.
- Augsburg's last six league matches all produced at least two second-half goals.
- Augsburg average 1.67 second-half goals for and 1.11 against; Union average 1.0 for and 1.43 against.
- Four of Union's five league goals have come from the 79th minute onwards.
- Augsburg have conceded five goals in the final quarter-hour.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Augsburg's scoring run is the clearest attacking signal in the match, and Union's away defence has been porous.
- Augsburg have scored at least twice in all six league games this season.
- They have 7 goals in 3 home league matches, an average of 2.33.
- Union have conceded 17 goals in 6 league games, including 11 in two away matches.
- Augsburg's 16-goal start is a club Bundesliga record.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFC Augsburg over 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Augsburg's open matches and Union's heavy defeats make a third goal more likely than not.
- All six of Augsburg's league matches have gone over 2.5 goals.
- Augsburg average 4.22 total goals per league game (2.33 for, 1.89 against).
- Union's league games average 4.0 total goals (1.29 for, 2.71 against).
- Union's last four league games produced 7, 4, 4 and 6 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance64%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both teams' corner numbers sit around or above the line, with Augsburg's home games especially busy.
- Augsburg's matches average 12.1 total corners; their home matches average 12.25.
- Union's matches average 10.7 total corners; their away matches average 13.0.
- Five of Augsburg's last six league games had at least 10 total corners.
- Four of Union's last six league games had at least 10 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Union's matches are consistently card-heavy, and the physical matchup should keep the total near four.
- Union's league matches average 4.43 total yellow cards (2.57 for, 1.86 against).
- Five of Union's last six league games had at least four total cards.
- Augsburg's league matches average 3.56 total yellow cards.
- The last six Union matches produced card totals of 6, 3, 4, 4, 4 and 6.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Augsburg generate plenty of on-target attempts, and Union's away games have also been busy in that metric.
- Augsburg's home matches average 14.25 total shots on target (8.25 for, 6.0 against).
- Union's league matches average 12.0 total shots on target (5.14 for, 6.86 against).
- Five of Augsburg's last six league games had at least 12 total shots on target.
- Union's away matches average 14.33 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 11.5Estimated chance59%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L4-0Union BerlinvFC AugsburgMay 16, 2026BL

D1-1FC AugsburgvUnion BerlinJan 15, 2026BL

L1-2FC AugsburgvUnion BerlinMay 17, 2025BL

W0-2Union BerlinvFC AugsburgJan 15, 2025BL

W2-0FC AugsburgvUnion BerlinApr 12, 2024BL

FC Augsburg: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	FC Augsburg	6	2	2	2	16-12	8	LDLDW
17	Union Berlin Relegation	6	1	2	3	5-17	5	DWLLL

3pt gap between teamsUnion Berlin in relegation zone

Recent Form

FC Augsburg

L3-4SV ElversbergOct 17BL

D2-2Bayern MünchenOct 10BL

D2-2Hertha BSCOct 2FRI

L2-3Werder BremenSep 19BL

D2-2Bayer LeverkusenSep 12BL

W4-1Eintracht FrankfurtSep 6BL

W3-0FC Schalke 04Aug 30BL

W2-0Energie CottbusAug 22DFB

L0-4LeedsAug 15FRI

W3-2SassuoloAug 8FRI

W15-0SchwazAug 5FRI

L2-5BournemouthJul 30FRI

D1-1FC SaarbrückenJul 25FRI

L0-4Union BerlinMay 16BL

W3-1Borussia MönchengladbachMay 9BL

Union Berlin

D0-0Borussia DortmundOct 17BL

W1-0SV ElversbergOct 10BL

W1-0HNK RijekaSep 26FRI

L0-7Bayern MünchenSep 18BL

L1-3FC Schalke 04Sep 11BL

L0-4Bayer LeverkusenSep 5BL

D3-3Eintracht FrankfurtAug 29BL

W4-2Eintracht BraunschweigAug 23DFB

L2-4IpswichAug 15FRI

W3-2ArisAug 9FRI

D2-2CagliariAug 2FRI

L1-2Dynamo DresdenAug 1FRI

L1-2FC AarauJul 18FRI

D1-1FC WinterthurJul 17FRI

L0-2FC Carl Zeiss JenaJul 12FRI

Squad & Injuries

FC Augsburg

6 out

Attackers2/6

×#20

Midfielders12

Defenders2/7

×#40

Goalkeeper3

#40 N. Banks — Knee Injury

#20 A. Claude-Maurice — Muscle Injury

S. Mounie — Injury

#40 N. Banks — Knee Injury

#20 A. Claude-Maurice — Muscle Injury

S. Mounie — Injury

Union Berlin

12 out

Attackers6/12

×#9

×#7

×#23

×#9

×#7

×#23

Midfielders11

Defenders6/12

×#3

×#18

×#34

×#3

×#18

×#34

Goalkeeper4

#3 A. Markgraf — Knee Injury

#9 L. Burcu — Illness

#7 O. Burke — Illness

#23 A. Ilic — Illness

#18 J. Juranovic — Achilles Tendon Injury

#34 S. Nsoki — Muscle Injury

#3 A. Markgraf — Knee Injury

#9 L. Burcu — Illness

#7 O. Burke — Illness

#23 A. Ilic — Illness

#18 J. Juranovic — Achilles Tendon Injury

#34 S. Nsoki — Muscle Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

FC Augsburg or Draw

Over 2.5

FC Augsburg or Draw

Over 9.5

Over 3.5

Result2 of 2 landed

Goals1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

FC Augsburg

Union Berlin

Squad & Injuries

FC Augsburg

Union Berlin