Avai0Botafogo SP2

HT 0–1Sat 24 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 28–6On targetOn target 8–3CornersCorners 14–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 14:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Avaí have four rounds to find six points of safety and must beat a Botafogo-SP side that has won three straight.

The visitors' away scoring is thin and Avaí's home finishing thinner still, so a tight, low-scoring game is the likeliest shape. Under 2.5 goals at 1.53 and both teams to score: No at 1.67 both hold up, while over 11.5 corners at 2.3 carries the largest edge.

Context

Avaí have spent 17 rounds of this Série B inside the bottom four, the most of any of their second-tier seasons, and the table now leaves almost no room for a draw at the Ressacada. The four points from their last two home matches — 2-1 over Londrina, 0-0 with Athletic — show a side that controls territory at home but converts little, which shapes how far forward Marquinhos Santos can push his team. The counterweight is that Avaí's best recent result came away from home, a 2-1 win at Cuiabá on 11 October with 32% possession, and their survival also depends on Náutico's results in the remaining rounds.
- Avaí sit 17th on 37 points with four rounds of the Série B season left.
- A draw between Goiás and Náutico on 19 October left Avaí six points behind Ceará, the first team outside the bottom four.
- Avaí have spent 17 rounds of this campaign in the bottom four, more than in any of their previous Série B seasons.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 14:26 · Europe/Bucharest
All three wins came by a single goal, and the most recent was settled by Hygor in a game where Botafogo-SP had 33% of the ball, so Tencati's team travel as a side that defends a lead rather than one that dominates. Beating Avaí would remove any relegation arithmetic from their final three fixtures and with it the need to take risks away from Santa Cruz. The pattern is recent rather than season-long, though: the same squad lost five consecutive league games between 25 August and 14 September, and they missed a penalty in the CRB win.
- Botafogo-SP are 13th on 44 points, seven above the bottom four, after beating CRB 1-0 on 18 October.
- A win at Avaí on 24 October would guarantee the club's place in the 2027 Série B.
- They have won their last three matches, each by a single goal.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 14:26 · Europe/Bucharest
His winner in Maceió came from his only shot, in a match where Botafogo-SP had 33% of the ball, so his role is to convert the rare chances a defensive away plan produces. Avaí's last home game produced 25 shots and no goals against Athletic, making the finishing contrast between the two sides the sharpest single difference in this fixture. Botafogo-SP also missed a penalty in that CRB win, a reminder that their margin has been narrow.
- Hygor scored the 79th-minute winner in Botafogo-SP's 1-0 victory at CRB on 18 October, from his only shot of the match.
- He also scored the only goal of the 1-0 home win over Ceará on 12 October.
- The forward previously played for Avaí and Criciúma.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 14:26 · Europe/Bucharest
His first change was structural: he dropped the three-centre-back shape for the Ceará game in favour of a back four with Felipe Vizeu and Gaspar up front, and Avaí have taken seven points from four matches since. The interim in charge is the club's most decorated former player and its leading scorer at the Ressacada, which gives the appointment unusual weight inside a squad fighting relegation. The limitation sits in his status rather than his authority: he has described himself as an employee who adapts to whoever arrives, and his own position beyond the season was unresolved when he spoke on 3 October.
- Avaí announced on 27 September that Allan Aal had left and Marquinhos Santos would take the team against Ceará.
- Across earlier interim spells he had coached Avaí eleven times, with five wins, three draws and three defeats.
- On 3 October he said he would talk to the president to find out whether he would see the season out as coach.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 14:26 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Avaí's home record is reasonable and they must chase a win, while Botafogo-SP take few goals on the road.
- Avaí are 17th on 37 points and need wins; their home league record is 6W-5D-6L with 17 goals in 17 games.
- Avaí score 0.8 and concede 1.13 per game across 15 tracked matches.
- Botafogo-SP have scored only 12 goals in 17 away league games, 0.71 per match.
- Botafogo-SP have won their last three, each by a single goal.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAvaiEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With so few first-half goals expected, the half is more likely to end level than not.
- Avaí average 0.43 first-half goals at home and concede 0.29.
- Botafogo-SP average 0.29 first-half goals away and concede 0.57.
- Avaí's last three home first halves were 0-0, 2-0 and 0-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half is also low-scoring enough for a level outcome to be the single likeliest result.
- Avaí score 0.29 and concede 0.57 second-half goals at home.
- Botafogo-SP score 0.43 and concede 0.43 second-half goals away.
- Combined second-half expectation is under one goal per match.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Avaí's home record is reasonable and they must chase a win, while Botafogo-SP take few goals on the road. Botafogo-SP are the better-placed side and arrive in stronger form than the hosts.
- Avaí are 17th on 37 points and need wins; their home league record is 6W-5D-6L with 17 goals in 17 games.
- Avaí score 0.8 and concede 1.13 per game across 15 tracked matches.
- Botafogo-SP are 13th on 44 points and have won their last three matches.
- Their away record is 5W-5D-7L with 12 goals scored in 17 games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAvai or Botafogo SPEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With so few first-half goals expected, the half is more likely to end level than not. Avaí's home first-half scoring rate is the higher of the two teams'.
- Avaí average 0.43 first-half goals at home and concede 0.29.
- Botafogo-SP average 0.29 first-half goals away and concede 0.57.
- Avaí score 0.43 first-half goals per home match.
- Botafogo-SP concede 0.57 first-half goals per away match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostAvai or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Both attacks are modest and the home side's recent games at the Ressacada have been tight.
- Avaí's last 7 home matches produced 0.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game.
- Botafogo-SP average 0.71 goals in their last 7 away matches.
- Both teams' season scoring averages sit below one goal per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Avaí's home scoring is so low that one side failing to score is the likelier outcome.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Avaí's last 7 home matches and 2 of Botafogo-SP's last 7 away.
- Avaí scored 3 goals in their last 7 home matches.
- Botafogo-SP kept 4 clean sheets in 15 tracked matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Avaí rarely score more than once at home this season.
- Avaí scored 3 goals across their last 7 home matches.
- Avaí have 17 goals in 17 home league games.
- Botafogo-SP concede 1.0 per away match in their last 7.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonAvai under 1.5Estimated chance79%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Botafogo-SP's away scoring is the weakest part of their season.
- Botafogo-SP scored 4 goals in their last 7 away matches.
- Their full away record is 12 goals in 17 league games.
- Avaí concede 0.86 per recent home match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostBotafogo SP under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first-half goal rates of both sides sit close to a coin-flip for any goal.
- Combined first-half averages give roughly 0.8 goals per match.
- Avaí concede 0.29 first-half goals at home.
- Botafogo-SP scored before half-time in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side has produced many second-half goals in the relevant splits.
- Combined second-half averages give under one goal per match.
- Avaí score 0.29 second-half goals at home.
- Botafogo-SP score 0.43 second-half goals away.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance75%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Both teams' corner numbers combine to a total just above the line.
- Avaí take 7.43 corners at home and concede 4.86.
- Botafogo-SP take 5.86 away and concede 7.14.
- Botafogo-SP's last four matches produced 15, 12, 11 and 13 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 11.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Avaí's home shot volume combined with Botafogo-SP's high shots-against away points above the line.
- Avaí average 17.4 shots at home and 13.4 against.
- Botafogo-SP average 11.4 shots away and 15.6 against.
- Avaí took 25 shots against Athletic and Botafogo-SP faced 18 at CRB.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 25.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two teams' on-target numbers add up to roughly the line, so either side of it is close.
- Avaí average 4.9 shots on target at home and 3.3 against.
- Botafogo-SP average 3.7 on target away and 4.0 against.
- Avaí's last two matches produced 7 and 8 shots on target in total.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' booking rates add up to a total just above the line.
- Avaí average 2.7 yellows and their opponents 1.4.
- Botafogo-SP average 2.3 yellows and their opponents 2.1.
- Both sides are involved in a match with survival implications.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance58%