Sturm Graz6Grazer AK1

HT 3–1Sun 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 23–12On targetOn target 10–3CornersCorners 7–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Oct 2026, 17:34 · Europe/Bucharest

A sold-out 204th Graz derby pits Sturm's home league form and five straight derby wins against a Grazer AK side unbeaten in eleven home matches at the shared Merkur Arena.

With Kiteishvili injured and a Europa League trip three days earlier, Sturm at 1.67 and 1.2 to avoid defeat ask more than the record supports. The prices with something behind them are 2.15 for no both teams to score, 2.25 for under 2.5 goals and 3.3 for a goalless first half.

Context

Kiteishvili was hurt during Georgia's October camp and the calf problem rules him out for the coming weeks. Sturm's central creativity normally runs through him, so the derby is likely to be organised around the in-form attackers instead. The counterweight is that Sturm won their next league game 2-0 without him, so any drop-off has not been automatic.
- Otar Kiteishvili suffered a calf muscle injury while with the Georgia national team and will miss the coming weeks.
- Gizo Mamageishvili, another Georgia international in the Sturm squad, is also unavailable after the same international window.
- O. Kiteishvili started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 17:32 · Europe/Bucharest
The 15 October list runs to eleven names spanning goalkeeping cover through to the attack, which points to a derby squad short on rotation options. A squad that thin affects the derby mainly through midfield and forward selection, where the coach has fewer like-for-like choices. Because the count comes from a supporter-run tracker rather than a club list, the exact number should be read as indicative rather than exhaustive.
- A Sturm Graz injury tracker listed eleven players injured or unavailable as of 15 October, including Seedy Jatta, Albert Vallci, Nelson Weiper and Szymon Włodarczyk.
- Kiteishvili and Mamageishvili are part of the same list after picking up injuries with Georgia.
To watchSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 17:32 · Europe/BucharestSturm Graz News injury pagesturmgraznews.info · 15 Oct 2026
The run was stretched by a goalless draw with Salzburg on 10 October, a match Grazer AK arguably edged. Because both clubs share the Merkur Arena, this 'away' derby is staged where Grazer AK have not lost at home for months. The streak is built on defence rather than goals, since it includes goalless draws with Salzburg and Wolfsberger, so it says more about their ability to stay compact than to out-score Sturm.
- Grazer AK's run of eleven home matches without defeat continued with the 0-0 draw against Red Bull Salzburg on 10 October.
- Earlier home results in the run include a 0-0 draw with Wolfsberger AC on 29 August and a 2-1 win over Austria Lustenau on 8 August.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 17:32 · Europe/Bucharest
Scheiblehner took over a Grazer AK side that had already conceded eight at Rapid in mid-August and has since avoided defeat, most recently in the 0-0 with Salzburg. That steadiness helps selection in a derby where the bulk of his squad is available, while Sturm are patching up absentees. Several results in the run were draws, though, including two goalless home games, so the improvement is clearest at the back.
- Gerald Scheiblehner has not lost since taking over as Grazer AK head coach, a run that includes the 0-0 draw with Red Bull Salzburg.
- Ahead of the Salzburg match, all but one player in the Grazer AK squad were fit.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 17:32 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Sturm Graz are the stronger side at home and have dominated this derby, while Grazer AK have shipped goals heavily on their league travels.
- Sturm Graz home league record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses; 4 scored, 2 conceded.
- Grazer AK away league record: 1 win, 0 draws, 3 losses; 2 scored, 13 conceded.
- Sturm Graz have won all five derbies in the supplied head-to-head list.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSturm GrazEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score little before half-time, so the opening period is most likely to be level.
- Sturm first-half goals for average 0.43, against 0.5.
- Grazer AK first-half goals for average 0.56, against 0.56.
- Combined first-half scoring is around one goal per match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sturm are much stronger after the break and their home second-half defence is solid.
- Sturm second-half goals for average 0.93, against 0.43.
- Sturm home second-half goals for average 0.6, against 0.2.
- Grazer AK second-half goals against average 0.6.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSturm GrazEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Sturm Graz are the stronger side at home and have dominated this derby, while Grazer AK have shipped goals heavily on their league travels. Grazer AK have been hard to beat and often finish level, so a tight derby draw is plausible.
- Sturm Graz home league record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses; 4 scored, 2 conceded.
- Grazer AK away league record: 1 win, 0 draws, 3 losses; 2 scored, 13 conceded.
- Sturm Graz drew 3 of 14 tracked competitive matches.
- Grazer AK drew 3 of their 8 league games and 3 of 10 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSturm Graz or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sturm have a modest first-half scoring rate but still edge the opening period at home. Both teams score little before half-time, so the opening period is most likely to be level.
- Sturm first-half goals for average 0.43, against 0.5.
- Sturm home first-half averages: 0.2 scored, 0.4 conceded.
- Grazer AK first-half goals for average 0.56, against 0.56.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSturm Graz or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Both defences have recorded clean sheets regularly and the home side's games have been tight.
- Sturm Graz kept 6 clean sheets in 14 competitive matches.
- Grazer AK kept 4 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches.
- Sturm home games average just 1.4 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.15
The read
At least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome given both sides' defensive records.
- Sturm Graz kept 6 clean sheets in 14 competitive matches.
- Grazer AK kept 4 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches.
- Sturm home games produced 2 clean sheets in 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sturm rarely score more than one at home, so staying under two goals is the likelier outcome.
- Sturm Graz home split averages 0.8 goals scored in 5 matches.
- Sturm home games average 0.6 goals conceded.
- Sturm scored 10 goals in 14 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSturm Graz under 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sturm concede in the majority of their matches, so Grazer AK scoring is the more likely side.
- Sturm Graz conceded in 8 of 14 competitive matches.
- Grazer AK scored 7 goals in 9 competitive matches tracked.
- Sturm home split shows 3 of 5 matches with a goal conceded.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGrazer AK to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of a win and a clean sheet is less likely than any other result path.
- Sturm Graz won 7 of 14 competitive matches.
- Sturm conceded in 8 of 14 competitive matches.
- Grazer AK scored in 5 of their 9 tracked competitive matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
At least one first-half goal is the more likely outcome given combined first-half rates around one per match.
- Sturm first-half goals for average 0.43 and against 0.5.
- Grazer AK first-half goals for average 0.56 and against 0.56.
- Combined first-half average is about one goal per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sturm home matches have generated high corner totals, pulling the combined expectation above the line.
- Sturm corners average 6.4 for and 5.1 against.
- Sturm home games average 7.4 for and 6.2 against.
- Grazer AK corners average 5.7 for and 4.3 against.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 10.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches generate high shot volumes, and Sturm home games clear the line comfortably.
- Sturm shots average 14.75 for and 14.83 against.
- Grazer AK shots average 13.75 for and 15.88 against.
- Sturm home games average 32.2 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 28.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target across both teams' matches sit above the line on average.
- Sturm shots on target average 4.4 for and 4.6 against.
- Grazer AK shots on target average 4.9 for and 4.3 against.
- Grazer AK away matches average 11.25 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The measured card averages for this fixture's venue and travel splits point just below the line.
- Sturm home total cards average 4.0 per match.
- Grazer AK away total cards average 3.75 per match.
- Sturm yellows average 2.2 and opponents 1.4 overall.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance52%