Cambuur Leeuwarden2AZ Alkmaar2

HT 2–1Sun 18 Oct 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 36%–64%ShotsShots 11–7On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 3–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 18:25 · Europe/Bucharest

AZ sit third with one league defeat, but they lost 2-0 at Feyenoord and host Hapoel Be'er Sheva on Thursday, three days before this lunchtime trip.

Cambuur won 1-0 at PEC Zwolle and score often, yet they have lost three of four home league games. Under 2.5 goals at 3 is the one reviewed price with something in it; AZ to win at 1.43, Over 2.5 at 1.30 and both teams to score at 1.50 ask too much.

Context

Amofa was stretchered off in the 79th minute at PEC Zwolle on 11 October, and he had surgery the following day with an expected nine-to-twelve-month recovery. Losing the captain removes a defensive and leadership option as Cambuur prepare to host an AZ side that averages more than two goals a game, and Cambuur have already conceded four or more in three of their four home league matches. The counterweight is that Amofa had been on the bench in recent weeks — he was a substitute in Zwolle — so Johan Plat may not need to change his preferred starting defence, only its depth and leadership.
- Amofa came on as a 74th-minute substitute at PEC Zwolle on 11 October and was carried off on a stretcher five minutes later.
- He had successful surgery and faces an expected recovery of nine to twelve months.
- He was named Cambuur's captain ahead of this season.
- J. Amofa started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 203 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 18:24 · Europe/Bucharest
Smit is expected to be out until late October, which rules him out of the Cambuur match and the preceding Europa League tie. He has been a first-team regular in AZ's midfield, so his absence narrows the creative options for a Sunday lunchtime away game. AZ do have cover — Valdemar Byskov arrived from Midtjylland and Jordy Clasie and Peer Koopmeiners remain — so the effect is more likely to shape rotation than to remove a single irreplaceable player.
- Kees Smit is injured and expected to return in late October 2026.
- He has been a first-team regular in AZ's midfield.
ReportedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 18:24 · Europe/BucharestFotMob match pagewww.fotmob.com · 14 Oct 2026
AZ's home Europa League game against Hapoel Be'er Sheva is on Thursday 15 October, three days before a 12:30 league kick-off in Leeuwarden. The short turnaround gives Leeroy Echteld a rotation decision, and the security operation around the European tie — a banned away following, relocated protests and a very high risk classification — makes it an unusual week around the squad. It is a distraction and load factor rather than a direct sporting disadvantage, and AZ's squad depth should absorb it; the side also went into the October international break after a 2-0 defeat at Feyenoord.
- AZ host Hapoel Be'er Sheva in the Europa League on 15 October.
- Hapoel Be'er Sheva supporters are banned from the match on public-order grounds, and the game is classed very high risk.
- Two pro-Palestinian demonstrations were moved away from the stadium entrance but remain within sight and sound of it.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 18:24 · Europe/Bucharest
Cambuur's four home league games have produced one win, three defeats, six goals scored and 13 conceded, while AZ's four away league games have brought three wins, one defeat, nine scored and five conceded. Cambuur's recent home defeats include 1-4 to Twente on 30 August and 2-5 to Feyenoord on 23 August. AZ's league away loss came at Feyenoord on 10 October, so the split is strong but not flawless.
- Cambuur's Eredivisie home record after eight rounds: 4 played, 1 win, 0 draws, 3 defeats, 6 scored, 13 conceded (standings updated 14 October 2026).
- AZ Alkmaar's away league record: 4 played, 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 defeat, 9 scored, 5 conceded.
- Cambuur lost 1-4 at home to Twente on 30 August 2026 and 2-5 at home to Feyenoord on 23 August 2026.
- AZ lost 0-2 at Feyenoord on 10 October 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or AZ Alkmaar

1.14fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 87.7%

−2.7ppshort

AZ are higher in the table, score more and concede far less than a Cambuur side that has lost three of four home league games. Cambuur have drawn twice recently but AZ rarely drop points against weaker teams.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.15fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 87%

−11.0ppshort

Cambuur concede regularly before half time, making at least one first-half goal likely.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

−8.7ppshort

Cambuur score regularly but also concede often, giving both teams a good chance of finding the net.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
AZ are higher in the table, score more and concede far less than a Cambuur side that has lost three of four home league games.
- AZ overall 7W-1D-2L with 2.2 goals for and 0.9 against per game
- Cambuur overall 3W-2D-5L, conceding 2.3 per game
- Cambuur league home record 1W-0D-3L, 6 scored and 13 conceded in 4
- AZ league away record 3W-0D-1L, 9 scored and 5 conceded in 4
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAZ AlkmaarEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score few first-half goals, so the interval often arrives level.
- Cambuur first-half goals for 0.4 per game
- AZ first-half goals for 0.7 per game
- AZ first-half goals against 0.4 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AZ score most of their goals after the break and concede little in the second half.
- AZ second-half goals for 1.5 per game, against 0.5
- Cambuur second-half goals against 0.9 per game
- Cambuur second-half goals for 1.0 per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonAZ AlkmaarEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.14
The read
AZ are higher in the table, score more and concede far less than a Cambuur side that has lost three of four home league games. Cambuur have drawn twice recently but AZ rarely drop points against weaker teams.
- AZ overall 7W-1D-2L with 2.2 goals for and 0.9 against per game
- Cambuur overall 3W-2D-5L, conceding 2.3 per game
- Cambuur 2 draws in 10 overall
- AZ 1 draw in 10 overall
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or AZ AlkmaarEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AZ concede very little before the break while Cambuur are regularly behind at half time. Both teams score few first-half goals, so the interval often arrives level.
- Cambuur first-half goals against 1.4 per game
- Cambuur first-half goals for 0.4 per game
- AZ first-half goals for 0.7 per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or AZ AlkmaarEstimated chance85%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches regularly produce three or more goals, with Cambuur involved in several high-scoring defeats.
- Cambuur matches average 3.7 total goals (1.4 for, 2.3 against)
- AZ matches average 3.1 total goals (2.2 for, 0.9 against)
- Cambuur conceded 4, 5 and 4 in three separate league games
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Cambuur score regularly but also concede often, giving both teams a good chance of finding the net.
- Cambuur scored in 9 of 10 matches
- Cambuur conceded in 8 of 10 matches
- AZ both teams scored in 4 of 10 and conceded in 6 of 10
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
AZ average more than two goals and face a defence conceding more than two per game.
- AZ goals for 2.2 per game overall
- AZ away goals 9 in 4 league games
- Cambuur concede 2.3 per game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAZ Alkmaar over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cambuur score in nearly every match, making an AZ clean sheet less likely.
- Cambuur scored in 9 of 10 matches
- AZ conceded in 6 of 10 matches
- Cambuur 1.4 goals per game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCambuur Leeuwarden to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Cambuur concede regularly before half time, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Cambuur first-half goals against 1.4 per game
- AZ first-half goals for 0.7 per game
- Cambuur first-half goals for 0.4 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves regularly produce at least two goals.
- Cambuur second-half total goals average 1.9 per match
- AZ second-half total goals average 2.0 per match
- Cambuur second-half goals for 1.0, against 0.9
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance64%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cambuur's low corner counts keep the combined total near or below the line.
- Cambuur matches average 9.5 total corners
- AZ matches average 12.2 total corners
- Cambuur home matches average 4.6 corners for
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 11.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot averages fall below the line, making the under slightly more likely.
- Cambuur matches average 28.4 total shots
- AZ matches average 28.9 total shots
- Cambuur take 13.1 shots per game
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 31.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' combined shots on target average under the line.
- Cambuur matches average 9.7 shots on target combined
- AZ matches average 9.7 shots on target combined
- Cambuur 4.0 on target per game
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cambuur's matches carry the higher card count, putting the line near a coin flip.
- Cambuur matches average 4.67 total yellow cards
- AZ matches average 2.8 total yellow cards
- Cambuur away games produced 4 and 3 yellow cards recently
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance52%