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Predictions graded

Stenhousemuir1Raith Rovers1

HT 1–0Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges1–325%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 23:50 · Europe/Bucharest

First hosts second at Ochilview, where a Raith Rovers win would take top spot from Stenhousemuir.

The leaders have won all four home league games but arrive off their first league defeat of the season, and Raith have lost once in five away. Stenhousemuir to win at 3 and the half-time draw at 2 both offer something, as do both teams to score No at 1.73 and under 2.5 goals at 1.6. Over 2.5 goals at 2.15 does not.

Context

With Stenhousemuir on 22 points from nine games and Raith on 20 from ten, the meeting decides who holds top spot going into the next round. Raith can overtake the leaders with a win, while Stenhousemuir can extend the gap, so the result shapes early-season position and momentum. The margin is only two points with the season far from settled, so the fixture is not a decisive break even though it carries real table weight.
- Stenhousemuir led the Scottish Championship on 22 points from nine matches as of 13 October 2026, with Raith Rovers second on 20 from ten.
- A win at Ochilview on 17 October would move Raith Rovers above Stenhousemuir because they have played one more match.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 23:49 · Europe/BucharestSPFL Championship resultsspfl.co.uk · 13 Oct 2026
Raith's most recent team news listed Vaughan, Robertson, McMullan and Easton as out through injury, and the club has flagged that squad numbers are stretched. Easton's ankle problem was described as severely swollen after the Morton match, the kind of injury that can keep a creative player out for weeks. The absence list comes from the 10 October fixture rather than a confirmed XI for Ochilview, so any returns or exact cover remain uncertain and the line-up cannot be assumed.
- Vaughan, Robertson, McMullan and Easton missed Raith Rovers' 2-0 win over Queen's Park on 10 October through injury.
- Dylan Easton's ankle was badly swollen following the 3 October match at Greenock Morton.
- Raith Rovers' squad numbers were stretched in the build-up to the Stenhousemuir fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 23:49 · Europe/Bucharest
Stenhousemuir carried a seven-game winning run and an eight-match unbeaten start into the Inverness trip, the strongest sequence in the division this season, and lost it 2-0. Hosting second-placed Raith days later forces the leaders to manage their first setback while defending top spot. A single defeat does not undo the season's body of work, and whether the manager changes selection or approach in response is not yet known.
- Inverness CT beat Stenhousemuir 2-0 on 10 October, the leaders' first Championship defeat of 2026-27.
- Before that loss Stenhousemuir had won seven consecutive league matches and gone eight unbeaten, the longest such run in the division this season.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 23:49 · Europe/Bucharest2026-27 Scottish Championshipen.wikipedia.org · 13 Oct 2026
The 13 October 2026 table shows Stenhousemuir with four wins from four at home, seven goals scored and one conceded, against Raith's six scored and three conceded on the road. The contrast is sharp, but four home games and five away games are small samples, and Raith won on 10 October without four injured regulars. This describes early-season form rather than settling who takes the points at Ochilview.
- As of 13 October 2026, Stenhousemuir had won four of four league home games, scoring seven and conceding one.
- As of 13 October 2026, Raith Rovers had three wins, one draw and one loss from five league away games, scoring six and conceding three.
- Both records cover the 2026-27 Championship season up to 10 October 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.00
The read
Stenhousemuir have been dominant at home and Raith arrive with several regulars missing.
- Stenhousemuir league home record: 4 wins from 4, 7 scored and 1 conceded
- Stenhousemuir: 7 clean sheets in 15 matches; 5 wins and 2 losses in 7 home matches
- Raith Rovers: Vaughan, Robertson, McMullan and Easton all missed the 10 October win through injury
- H2H: 1-1 at Raith Rovers on 1 August 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostStenhousemuirEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Both teams score few goals early and the away side has not conceded a first-half goal on its travels.
- Stenhousemuir home first half: 0.29 scored and 0.29 conceded per game
- Raith Rovers away first half: 0 conceded per game
- Stenhousemuir overall first half: 0.67 scored per game
- Raith Rovers overall first half: 1.08 scored per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half goal expectations are close, so a level final period is the largest single outcome.
- Stenhousemuir home second half: 1.0 scored and 0.43 conceded per game
- Raith Rovers away second half: 0.6 scored and 0.6 conceded per game
- Raith Rovers overall second half: 0.5 scored and 0.5 conceded per game
- Stenhousemuir overall second half: 0.67 scored and 0.33 conceded per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score few goals early and the away side has not conceded a first-half goal on its travels. Raith score early more often than Stenhousemuir and have a strong overall first-half record.
- Stenhousemuir home first half: 0.29 scored and 0.29 conceded per game
- Raith Rovers away first half: 0 conceded per game
- Raith Rovers away first half: 0.6 scored and 0 conceded per game
- Raith Rovers overall first half: 1.08 scored per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Raith RoversEstimated chance79%

Goals9 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both defences concede little and the recent meeting and form point to a low total.
- Stenhousemuir home: 1.29 scored and 0.71 conceded per game
- Raith Rovers away: 1.2 scored and 0.6 conceded per game
- Stenhousemuir recent 6: 4 scored and 2 conceded
- H2H: 1-1 on 1 August 2026
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Both defences keep frequent clean sheets and the home side concedes very little.
- Stenhousemuir: 7 clean sheets in 15 matches
- Stenhousemuir home: both teams scored in 1 of 7 matches
- Raith Rovers: 6 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches
- Stenhousemuir home: 4 clean sheets in 7 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stenhousemuir rarely score more than once and Raith defend well on the road.
- Stenhousemuir home: 1.29 goals per game
- Stenhousemuir home: scored in 5 of 7 matches
- Raith Rovers away: 0.6 conceded per game
- Raith Rovers: 6 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonStenhousemuir under 1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Raith's away average and the home defence point to at most one away goal.
- Raith Rovers away: 1.2 goals per game
- Raith Rovers away: 6 goals in 5 league matches
- Stenhousemuir home: 0.71 conceded per game
- Stenhousemuir: 7 clean sheets in 15 matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonRaith Rovers under 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Raith usually find a goal away from home, making a home shutout less likely than not.
- Stenhousemuir home: 4 clean sheets in 7 matches
- Raith Rovers away: 6 goals in 5 league matches
- Raith Rovers scored in 3 of 5 away matches
- Stenhousemuir home: 0.71 conceded per game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonRaith Rovers to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stenhousemuir score in most home games, so an away clean sheet looks unlikely.
- Stenhousemuir home: scored in 5 of 7 matches
- Raith Rovers away: 2 clean sheets in 5 matches
- Stenhousemuir league home: 7 goals in 4 matches
- Raith Rovers away: 0.6 conceded per game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonStenhousemuir to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most likely outcomes involve Raith scoring or Stenhousemuir not winning.
- Stenhousemuir have 5 home wins and 4 home clean sheets in 7 matches
- Raith Rovers away: scored in 3 of 5 matches
- Raith Rovers: 8 wins in 12 competitive matches
- H2H: 1-1 on 1 August 2026
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stenhousemuir usually score at home, so a Raith win without conceding is unlikely.
- Stenhousemuir home: scored in 5 of 7 matches
- Raith Rovers away: 2 clean sheets in 5 matches
- Stenhousemuir league home: 7 goals in 4 matches
- Raith Rovers away: 3 wins in 5 matches
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring rates are modest but a goal before the break is still slightly more likely than not.
- Stenhousemuir home first half: 0.29 scored and 0.29 conceded per game
- Raith Rovers away first half: 0.6 scored and 0 conceded per game
- Raith Rovers overall first half: 1.08 scored and 0.08 conceded per game
- Stenhousemuir overall first half: 0.67 scored and 0.4 conceded per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite a livelier second period, the combined scoring rate still favours fewer than two goals.
- Stenhousemuir home second half: 1.0 scored and 0.43 conceded per game
- Raith Rovers away second half: 0.6 scored and 0.6 conceded per game
- Stenhousemuir overall second half: 0.67 scored per game
- Raith Rovers overall second half: 0.5 scored and 0.5 conceded per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

D1-1Raith RoversvStenhousemuirAug 1, 2026CHA

D1-1StenhousemuirvRaith RoversApr 6, 2019LEA

L5-1Raith RoversvStenhousemuirJan 5, 2019LEA

L1-3StenhousemuirvRaith RoversNov 17, 2018LEA

L2-0Raith RoversvStenhousemuirAug 11, 2018LEA

Raith Rovers unbeaten in 5 meetings3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Stenhousemuir Promotion - Premiership	9	7	1	1	12-4	22	LWWWW
2	Raith Rovers Promotion - Premiership (Promotion: Semi-finals)	10	6	2	2	15-6	20	WWLDW

2pt gap between teamsStenhousemuir leads the league

Recent Form

Stenhousemuir

L0-2Inverness CTOct 10CHA

W1-0Ayr UtdSep 25CHA

W1-0ArbroathSep 19CHA

W1-0PartickSep 15CHA

L0-3Heart Of MidlothianSep 11LEA

W1-0LivingstonSep 4CHA

W3-1Inverness CTAug 29CHA

W2-0Queen's ParkAug 22CHA

W2-0MortonAug 8CHA

D1-1Raith RoversAug 1CHA

W2-1BrechinJul 18LEA

W2-0Forfar AthleticJul 11LEA

L0-1Alloa AthleticMay 16CHA

W3-1Alloa AthleticMay 13CHA

D1-1Queen of the SouthMay 5CHA

Raith Rovers

W2-0Queen's ParkOct 10CHA

W2-1MortonOct 3CHA

L0-2LivingstonSep 25CHA

D0-0PartickSep 19CHA

W4-0ArbroathSep 12CHA

W2-0Inverness CTSep 5CHA

L0-1DunfermlineAug 28CHA

W2-0Ayr UtdAug 22CHA

W2-1Queen's ParkAug 8CHA

D1-1StenhousemuirAug 1CHA

L0-1Heart Of MidlothianJul 24FRI

W1-0PeterheadJul 21LEA

W3-1Elgin CityJul 11LEA

W4-0Edinburgh CityJun 30FRI

D2-2Hamilton AcademicalJun 27FRI

Squad & Injuries

Stenhousemuir

25 available

Attackers3

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Raith Rovers

21 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Stenhousemuir

Draw

No

Under 2.5

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals9 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Stenhousemuir

Raith Rovers

Squad & Injuries

Stenhousemuir

Raith Rovers