Deportivo La Coruna1Levante1

HT 0–0Fri 16 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 13–11On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 03:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Deportivo host Levante on matchday nine missing four first-team players, while the visitors arrive on one fewer day's rest and with one goal in four away league games.

The home side look the likelier winners, though a draw is a live risk. Of the selections reviewed, only level at half-time at 2.25 offers much; the home win at 2.05, both teams to score at 1.75 and at least one first-half goal at 1.3 offer little.

Context

Anchored in La Opinión A Coruña's report that this is Amatucci's second sending-off of the season and that he will miss the Levante match, the ban removes a midfielder who started the 3-2 defeat at Real Sociedad. Deportivo must restructure the middle for a home fixture they will expect to control, and local analysis suggests Hidalgo may use two rather than three central midfielders. That shape claim comes from supporters rather than the club, so the starting structure remains a genuine unknown; what is settled is that a first-choice midfielder is unavailable.
- La Opinión A Coruña reports the sending-off at Real Sociedad was Amatucci's second of the season and that he will miss the Levante match.
- Match reports from Real Sociedad 3-2 Deportivo on 11 October list Amatucci among the players sent off.
- L. Amatucci started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:55 · Europe/Bucharest
The anchor is the club-confirmed operation and the roughly two-month absence reported around it, which rules Aubameyang out of this fixture. Before the injury he had been Deportivo's main scoring threat, netting five goals in the opening seven league games, so the team must again cover for him against Levante. His 8 October comments framed the recovery as slower than any injury of his career, and no fixed return date has been published, so nothing indicates an imminent comeback. The exact comeback game remains open.
- Deportivo confirmed surgery on the external meniscus of Aubameyang's right knee; Spanish media reported an absence of about two months.
- Aubameyang told La Opinión A Coruña on 8 October that it was the first injury of his career to keep him out for more than ten days.
- He had scored five goals in his first seven league appearances of the season.
- P. Aubameyang started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:55 · Europe/Bucharest
The anchor is Monday night's 3-3, in which Levante scored in the 92nd and 100th minutes after Sevilla had regained the lead in the 95th. Because they close matchday eight on Monday and open matchday nine at Riazor on Friday, they have one fewer recovery day than a Deportivo side that played on Sunday. The compressed week makes some rotation plausible for Luís Castro, but no squad or selection news has confirmed changes, and a one-day differential is a modest conditioning factor rather than a decisive one.
- Nostresport reports Levante rescued a 3-3 draw against Sevilla on 12 October, with three goals arriving in added time.
- Levante equalised in the 92nd and 100th minutes after Sevilla had gone 3-2 ahead in the 95th.
- Deportivo's official weekly plan lists the Levante fixture as matchday nine on Friday 16 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:55 · Europe/Bucharest
A local reporter's 12 October assessment frames Brugui as Levante's strongest performer at a point when the team is still searching for collective rhythm. He is an established attacking starter who also scored against Barcelona in September, so he is the most likely source of Levante's threat at Riazor. The positive reading is a journalist's judgment over a small set of matches for a side that has started slowly, so it supports expectation of involvement rather than any guaranteed output.
- Jonay Amaro wrote on 12 October that Brugui's physical and footballing level is Levante's best news and that his repeated efforts are a difference-maker.
- Brugui scored in Levante's 2-4 home defeat to Barcelona on 13 September.
- Brugui started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 444 minutes across 5 appearances.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:55 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.30fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 76.9%

−6.9ppshort

Both teams are frequently involved in first-half goals, making at least one before the break likely.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.75fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 57.1%

−4.1ppshort

Deportivo's defence almost always concedes, though Levante's away scoring record is thin.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Deportivo's home points and Levante's blunt away attack favour the hosts despite the missing forwards.
- Deportivo home league record: 1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss, scoring 5 and conceding 4.
- Levante away league record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 1 goal scored and 6 conceded.
- Deportivo are without top scorer Aubameyang (5 goals in 7) plus Casadó, Amatucci and Eddahchouri.
- Levante drew 3-3 with Sevilla on Monday and arrive with one fewer recovery day.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDeportivo La CorunaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.25
The read
Low first-half scoring rates make a level half-time score the most likely outcome.
- Deportivo average 0.625 first-half goals for and 0.75 against.
- Levante average 0.667 first-half goals for and 1.0 against.
- Two of Deportivo's last three matches were level at half-time.
- Both teams' first-half scoring rates are below one goal per match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Balanced second-half records point to the closing period being shared.
- Deportivo's second-half goal difference is +0.25 per match.
- Levante's second-half goal difference is +0.11 per match.
- Both teams average fewer than one second-half goal scored.
- Several recent matches were level after the break.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levante concede before the break fairly often, giving Deportivo a plausible half-time lead. Low first-half scoring rates make a level half-time score the most likely outcome.
- Deportivo average 0.625 first-half goals for and 0.75 against.
- Levante average 0.667 first-half goals for and 1.0 against.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDeportivo La Coruna or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Levante's away scoring is minimal and Deportivo's attack is depleted, so the total may stay low.
- Deportivo home games have produced 2, 1, 4 and 2 goals in the four tracked home matches.
- Levante have scored just 1 goal across four away league matches.
- Deportivo's leading scorer Aubameyang is out after knee surgery.
- Two of Levante's last six matches finished 0-0.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Deportivo's defence almost always concedes, though Levante's away scoring record is thin.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Deportivo's 8 competitive matches.
- Deportivo have kept no clean sheet in eight competitive matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Deportivo's 4 home league matches.
- Levante scored in only 1 of 4 away league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo's home output is low and the attack is missing key scorers.
- Deportivo have scored 5 goals in 4 home league matches.
- Deportivo scored one or none in 3 of their 4 tracked home matches.
- Aubameyang and Eddahchouri are both unavailable in attack.
- Levante kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonDeportivo La Coruna under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levante's away scoring is very low, making a two-goal haul improbable.
- Levante have scored 1 goal in four away league matches.
- Levante failed to score in 3 of those 4 away matches.
- Levante's away goals average is 0.83 per tracked away match.
- Deportivo have conceded 4 in 4 at home.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonLevante under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams are frequently involved in first-half goals, making at least one before the break likely.
- Deportivo average 1.375 combined first-half goals per match.
- Levante average 1.667 combined first-half goals per match.
- Four of Deportivo's last six matches had a first-half goal.
- Four of Levante's last six matches had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low second-half scoring rates and Levante's weak away attack favour fewer than two goals after the break.
- Deportivo's second-half goals against average is 0.625.
- Levante's second-half goals against average is 0.778.
- Both teams average fewer than one second-half goal scored.
- Levante have scored 1 goal in four away league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average around ten corners, putting the line close to even.
- Deportivo average 5.5 corners and concede 5.75 per match.
- Levante average 3.9 corners and concede 5.4 per match.
- Deportivo's last three matches produced 10, 11 and 4 corners.
- Levante concede 6.25 corners per away match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' matches regularly generate more than 23 shots combined.
- Deportivo average 11.5 shots and concede 12.75.
- Levante average 12 shots and concede 14.2.
- Deportivo's last two matches produced 33 and 35 total shots.
- Levante's last match produced 27 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 23.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined on-target averages sit just above the line, making the over slightly more likely.
- Deportivo average 4.25 shots on target and concede 4.375.
- Levante average 4.2 shots on target and concede 5.8.
- Deportivo's last match had 11 shots on target in total.
- Levante's last match had 8 shots on target in total.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams and their opponents collect enough cards for the total to clear 2.5.
- Deportivo average 1.6 yellow cards and their opponents 1.9.
- Levante average 1.3 yellow cards and their opponents 1.6.
- Deportivo have received a red card in three of eight competitive matches.
- Levante's recent matches featured 4 and 6 yellow cards for the two sides.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%

Prediction history

Deportivo La Coruna: 4/5 recent winner projections matched

4 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Deportivo La Coruna matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Deportivo La Coruna5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 May·La Liga 2