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Deportivo La Coruna - Leganes
🇪🇸 La Liga 2Upcoming
Friday, May 1, 2026 at 16:30
Quick Take
Leganes, a recently relegated La Liga side with superior squad quality, dominate the H2H record (3W-2D-1L, 4-0 most recent win) and face a mid-table Deportivo with no competitive pressure; the clean sheet away at 1.55 offers marginal value given Deportivo's consistent home scoring but modest confidence margins.
Away Clean SheetNo70%+5.5pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
Model probabilities
Market & pick
Model
Markets to Avoid
Double Chance Home or Draw:Implied 84.7% for Home or Draw is significantly higher than our 78% estimate; market overprices the no-loss outcome despite Leganes' proven H2H dominance and recently relegated squad quality.
Both Teams to Score Yes:Implied 55.6% leaves no margin of safety against our 56% estimate; MEDIUM confidence requires 5+ point edge but offer is only +0.4pts.
Total Goals Home Over 1.5:Implied 57.1% vs our 58% estimate offers insufficient margin (+0.9pts) for a MEDIUM confidence selection; vig too heavy for a marginal directional play.
Leganes arrive at Estadio Abanca-Riazor as a recently relegated La Liga side with significantly higher structural quality than their Segunda Division hosts. After dropping down from La Liga in 2024-25 under Borja Jimenez, they regrouped with new manager Igor Oca and retained their squad of former top-flight players—a material advantage in the second tier. By contrast, Deportivo sit comfortably in 10th place with 29 points and nothing meaningful at stake in this final stretch, creating a clear motivation asymmetry that extends beyond the scoreline.
Recent Form
Deportivo La Coruna
D1-1BurgosApr 25SEG
W3-1MirandesApr 20SEG
D1-1HuescaApr 12SEG
D1-1MalagaApr 4SEG
W2-0CordobaMar 31SEG
D1-1Sporting GijonMar 28SEG
W2-1ZaragozaMar 21SEG
W2-1AD Ceuta FCMar 14SEG
L0-2Granada CFMar 8SEG
W3-2Real Sociedad IIMar 1SEG
Leganes
L0-4FC AndorraApr 26SEG
L0-2Las PalmasApr 17SEG
W2-1AlbaceteApr 11SEG
L1-2AlmeriaApr 5SEG
D1-1ZaragozaApr 2SEG
D0-0MalagaMar 28SEG
W5-2AD Ceuta FCMar 21SEG
L2-3ValladolidMar 14SEG
L0-1EibarMar 8SEG
D0-0Sporting GijonMar 2SEG
League Table
Segunda División 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Deportivo La Coruna Promotion Playoffs | 37 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 57-40 | 65 |
| 16 | Leganes | 37 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 40-44 | 42 |
23pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
1W · 2D · 2WD2-2LeganesvDeportivo La CorunaSep 1, 2025SEG
D0-0LeganesvDeportivo La CorunaApr 20, 2018LL
W1-0Deportivo La CorunavLeganesDec 9, 2017LL
L4-0LeganesvDeportivo La CorunaFeb 25, 2017LL
L1-2Deportivo La CorunavLeganesSep 22, 2016LL
Deportivo La Coruna: 2 clean sheetsLeganes: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg