Serie AFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

RB Bragantino SP4Cruzeiro2

HT 3–1Tue 13 Oct 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–847%

Edges0–10%

PossPossession 31%–69%ShotsShots 20–25On targetOn target 10–13CornersCorners 7–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 05:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Cruzeiro, fifth and on a two-match winning run, visit a Bragantino side with one win in 10 league games and seven points of cushion above the relegation zone.

Cruzeiro look the likelier winners, but their away record in this window is 3W 1D 4L and Fagner and Romero are reported out. At 2.9, Cruzeiro to win is the quoted price that offers value.

Context

O TEMPO reported on 9 October that Bragantino are rebuilding the Nabi Abi Chedid and will stage this fixture at the smaller municipal Cícero de Souza Marques, a ground Cruzeiro have never visited. The change removes Bragantino's familiar home setting and puts both teams on a tighter, less familiar pitch, which can affect rhythm and set-piece routines. Bragantino have already played there, drawing 1-1 with Mirassol on 7 October, so any home adjustment is limited and shared by the hosts.
- O TEMPO, 9 October 2026: Cruzeiro will play at a modest São Paulo stadium for the first time; Bragantino are rebuilding the Nabi Abi Chedid, which will be ready in coming years.
- Cruzeiro's official match post lists Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques as the venue for the round-30 fixture.
- Bragantino drew 1-1 with Mirassol at the same ground on 7 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 05:13 · Europe/Bucharest
Emerson Pancieri and Lucas Barbosa, reporting for Rádio Itatiaia on 11 October, said right-back Fagner and midfielder L. Romero miss the trip while centre-backs Fabrício Bruno and L. Villalba return. Losing a first-choice right-back and a midfield option reshapes Cruzeiro's defensive and build-up structure on the road. The returning centre-backs restore central depth, but they are coming back from lay-offs, so their match sharpness is uncertain.
- Emerson Pancieri, 11 October 2026: defenders recover and strengthen Cruzeiro against Bragantino; right-back Fagner is out for the game.
- Lucas Barbosa/Rádio Itatiaia, 11 October 2026: Fabrício Bruno and Villalba return; Fagner out.
- Cruzeiro Press, 12 October 2026: Fagner and Romero are absences for the Bragantino match.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 05:13 · Europe/Bucharest
Cruzeiro have won their last two Série A games, beating Vitória 3-1 and São Paulo 2-0, and a win in Bragança Paulista would give them a first three-match winning run of 2026 plus a possible move to third. Rádio Craque Neto noted this is their eighth attempt at a third straight win this season, having failed the previous seven times. The caveat is away form: Cruzeiro's own review of the São Paulo win described the Bragantino and Grêmio trips as the next test of results on the road.
- Rádio Craque Neto, 10 October 2026: Cruzeiro seek a third consecutive win for the first time in 2026, an eighth attempt after seven near-misses.
- Cruzeiro beat Vitória 3-1 away and São Paulo 2-0 at home in their previous two league matches.
- A win could put Cruzeiro third if Athletico-PR and Fluminense do not win their round-30 games.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 05:13 · Europe/Bucharest
Bragantino have won only one of their last 10 league matches and sit seven points above the relegation zone, according to supporters' outlet Central do Braga. A second-half slide has dropped them down the table, and FutebolDeTerceira lists them among the season's biggest fallers. That pressure makes this home game a relegation-relevant fixture rather than a routine mid-table meeting.
- Central do Braga, 7 October 2026: Bragantino have won only one of their last 10 matches and are seven points above the Z4.
- FutebolDeTerceira, 9 October 2026: Bragantino are among the clubs that have fallen furthest in the table between the first and second half of the season.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 05:13 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.90
The read
Cruzeiro arrive in better form and higher in the table, while Bragantino have struggled to win at home.
- Cruzeiro are 5th on 48 points; Bragantino are 10th on 37
- Cruzeiro won their last two league games 3-1 and 2-0
- Bragantino have one win in their last 10 league matches
- Cruzeiro away in this window: 3W 1D 4L
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCruzeiroEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce very little before the break.
- Bragantino home first-half goalsFor 0.29 and goalsAgainst 0.29 per game
- Cruzeiro away first-half goalsFor 0.25 per game
- Cruzeiro away first-half goalsAgainst 0.625 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cruzeiro score most of their goals after the break.
- Cruzeiro overall second-half goalsFor 1.2 per game
- Cruzeiro away second-half goalsFor 1.0 per game
- Bragantino home second-half goalsAgainst 0.71 per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCruzeiroEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cruzeiro arrive in better form and higher in the table, while Bragantino have struggled to win at home. Bragantino's high draw rate and Cruzeiro's mixed away record keep this fixture tight.
- Cruzeiro are 5th on 48 points; Bragantino are 10th on 37
- Cruzeiro won their last two league games 3-1 and 2-0
- Bragantino drew 7 of 15 window matches
- Bragantino home record is 2W 2D 3L in 7
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or CruzeiroEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce very little before the break. Cruzeiro concede relatively more before the break away from home.
- Bragantino home first-half goalsFor 0.29 and goalsAgainst 0.29 per game
- Cruzeiro away first-half goalsFor 0.25 per game
- Bragantino home first-half goalsAgainst 0.29 per game
- Cruzeiro away first-half goalsAgainst 0.625 per game (5 in 8)
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonRB Bragantino SP or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away matches have produced few goals this season.
- Bragantino home matches average 1.14 total goals (4 scored, 4 conceded in 7)
- Cruzeiro away matches average 1.63 total goals (7 scored, 6 conceded in 8)
- Bragantino home goalsFor 0.71 per game
- Cruzeiro away goalsAgainst 0.75 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cruzeiro usually score and concede, and Bragantino have found the net in most recent games.
- Cruzeiro both scored and conceded in 6 of 8 away games
- Both teams scored in 5 of each side's last 6 matches
- Cruzeiro scored in all 8 away games in this window
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bragantino rarely score more than once at home.
- Bragantino scored 4 goals in 7 home games (0.71 per game)
- Bragantino scored at most one goal in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Cruzeiro away goalsAgainst is 0.75 per game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostRB Bragantino SP under 1.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cruzeiro's away scoring has been limited despite their overall form.
- Cruzeiro scored 7 goals in 8 away games (0.875 per game)
- Cruzeiro scored one goal or fewer in 3 of their last 4 away matches
- Bragantino home goalsAgainst is 1.0 per game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostCruzeiro under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cruzeiro have scored in every away game in the sample.
- Cruzeiro scored in all 8 away games in this window
- Cruzeiro failed to score in none of their 15 window matches
- Bragantino kept 3 home clean sheets in 7
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCruzeiro to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bragantino have found the net in most recent games, so a blank is less likely.
- Bragantino scored in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Cruzeiro kept 2 clean sheets in 8 away games
- Bragantino home goalsFor is 0.71 per game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonRB Bragantino SP to scoreEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
A single first-half goal is more likely than none.
- Bragantino home first-half games average 0.57 goals
- Cruzeiro away first-half games average 0.875 goals
- Both sides' recent matches averaged more than one first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half totals for these teams sit close to one and a half goals.
- Bragantino home second-half games average 1.14 goals
- Cruzeiro away second-half games average 1.75 goals
- Combined second-half expectation sits near 1.45 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bragantino's home games produce corner counts near the line.
- Bragantino home corners 8.29 plus opponent corners 3.14 (11.4 per game)
- Cruzeiro away corners total averages 11.0 per game
- Bragantino's last home game had 14 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 11.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent games for both sides have produced double-digit shots on target.
- Bragantino's last six matches averaged more than 11 total shots on target
- Cruzeiro's last six matches averaged around 13 total shots on target
- Bragantino home shotsOnTarget 5.43 plus Cruzeiro away shotsOnTarget 4.13
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 10.5Estimated chance57%

Prediction history

Cruzeiro: 2/5 recent winner projections matched

2 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Cruzeiro matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Cruzeiro5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Serie A

Cruzeiro0-1

Botafogo

BetBugsCruzeiro to win·42%

Missed

26 Jul 2026

Serie A

Cruzeiro0-1

Botafogo

Cruzeiro to win

42%probability

Botafogo won

Missed

1 Jun·Serie A

Cruzeiro1-1

Fluminense RJ

BetBugsCruzeiro to win·42%

Missed

1 Jun 2026

Serie A

Cruzeiro1-1

Fluminense RJ

Cruzeiro to win

42%probability

Draw

Missed

29 May·Copa Libertadores

Cruzeiro4-0

Barcelona Guayaquil

BetBugsCruzeiro to win·65%

Matched

29 May 2026

Copa Libertadores

Cruzeiro4-0

Barcelona Guayaquil

Cruzeiro to win

65%probability

Cruzeiro won

Matched

24 May·Serie A

Cruzeiro2-1

Chapecoense

BetBugsCruzeiro to win·65%

Matched

24 May 2026

Serie A

Cruzeiro2-1

Chapecoense

Cruzeiro to win

65%probability

Cruzeiro won

Matched

16 Apr·Copa Libertadores

Cruzeiro1-2

Universidad Catolica

BetBugsCruzeiro to win·50%

Missed

16 Apr 2026

Copa Libertadores

Cruzeiro1-2

Universidad Catolica

Cruzeiro to win

50%probability

Universidad Catolica won

Missed

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

L2-1CruzeirovRB BragantinoApr 12, 2026SA

L2-1CruzeirovRB BragantinoSep 21, 2025SA

L1-0RB BragantinovCruzeiroApr 20, 2025SA

D1-1RB BragantinovCruzeiroMar 22, 2025FRI

D1-1RB BragantinovCruzeiroDec 1, 2024SA

Cruzeiro unbeaten in 5 meetings2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	RB Bragantino SP Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	29	10	7	12	34-33	37	DLLDL
5	Cruzeiro Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)	29	14	6	9	44-40	48	WWLWL