Burgos0Granada1

HT 0–1Mon 12 Oct 2026, 14:15 Predictions graded

Predictions5–838%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 23–7On targetOn target 6–3CornersCorners 4–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 15:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Burgos' unbeaten home record meets a Granada team that has not beaten them in four meetings, though the visitors' recent games have been open and high-scoring.

Burgos look the more likely winner, and the 2.5 on a home win, 2.25 on over 2.5 goals, 3.2 on Burgos leading at half-time, 1.43 on a first-half goal and 1.95 on both teams scoring all stand up. The 3 on the draw does not.

Context

Marqués had edged ahead in Granada's scoring chart with his second goal of the season at Leganés on 20 September, then went off injured against Andorra six days later. Local outlets reported him as the only absentee through the build-up, so Pacheta must again find a different centre-forward at El Plantío. Granada Hoy and Granada En Juego both reported the absence without publishing a recovery timetable, so his return date stays open.
- Granada En Juego reported on 11 October that Marqués was the only absence from Granada's final preparations for Burgos.
- Ideal Granada noted on 25 September that Marqués had moved ahead in the club's scoring chart with a second goal of the season in the 3-2 defeat at Leganés.
- Alejandro Marqués started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- C. Onouha started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Alejandro Marqués did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 15:36 · Europe/Bucharest
Emeka was with Spain's under-18s for the UEFA Friendly Cup and missed the Andorra and Real Sociedad B fixtures, so his return restores a wide option while Pacheta weighs his attack. La Categoria de Plata expects him to feature on the right, an area where Granada's wide and full-back roles are still unsettled. The claim rests on local coverage rather than a confirmed line-up, so his involvement remains a projection.
- Granada En Juego reported on 12 October that Emeka and Kader Bamba were back as Granada recovered squad members for the Burgos trip.
- La Categoria de Plata's 9 October preview flagged Emeka as a threat on the right after his return from Spain's under-18s.
- O. M. Chukwuemeka started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 15:36 · Europe/Bucharest
Francisco appears to have his defensive options replenished, with the choice between Grego and Sergio González the main call and Lizancos pushing Alberto Dadie at left-back. A fuller back line matters against a Granada attack the Burgos coach expects to commit numbers forward, since Burgos are content to defend and spring transitions. The assessment is a preview judgement rather than club confirmation, so the individual starters remain a projection.
- La Categoria de Plata reported on 9 October that Grego and Sergio González finished the week without problems and that one would enter the XI.
- The same preview said Lizancos was close to 100% and could come in for Dadie at left-back.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 15:36 · Europe/Bucharest
Diallo's return would give Granada a specialist left-back as Pacheta seeks a more settled defensive shape. His readiness matters against a Burgos side that attacks down the flanks and is expected to spring forward quickly. The evidence is a training read and a preview question rather than a confirmed line-up, so Diallo's start is not settled.
- Ideal Granada reported on 9 October that Diallo was in line to start at left-back after training normally with the group.
- La Categoria de Plata's 9 October preview also questioned whether Diallo was ready to return at left-back.
- B. Diallo started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- Manu Lama started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when B. Diallo did not start.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 15:36 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Burgos are hard to beat at El Plantío and hold the stronger defensive record, giving them the clearest route to the win.
- Burgos are unbeaten at home (4W 1D in 5; 3W 1D in 4 league home games)
- Granada have not beaten Burgos in four meetings (three draws, one Burgos win)
- Burgos have conceded 0.82 goals per game across 11 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBurgosEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight opening is likely, with the most probable single first-half outcome being level.
- Granada average only 0.2 first-half goals away
- Burgos concede 0.8 first-half goals at home
- Burgos and Granada have often been level at the interval in this window
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both sides capable after the break, the closing period is hard to separate.
- Burgos concede 0.27 second-half goals per game
- Granada score 1.22 and concede 0.56 in second halves
- Second halves have been high-scoring in Granada's recent matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos are hard to beat at El Plantío and hold the stronger defensive record, giving them the clearest route to the win. Recent meetings have been close and low-margin, keeping a draw in play.
- Burgos are unbeaten at home (4W 1D in 5; 3W 1D in 4 league home games)
- Granada have not beaten Burgos in four meetings (three draws, one Burgos win)
- Four of the last five meetings finished level or within one goal
- Burgos drew 2 of 11 competitive matches; Granada drew 2 of 9
BetBugs · Double ChancelostBurgos or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Granada's slow first halves on the road give Burgos the best chance to lead at the break. A tight opening is likely, with the most probable single first-half outcome being level.
- Burgos average 1.2 first-half goals at home
- Granada average 0.2 first-half goals away
- Granada average only 0.2 first-half goals away
- Burgos concede 0.8 first-half goals at home
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostBurgos or DrawEstimated chance81%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Granada's open games and Burgos's productive home scoring point to a slight lean toward three or more goals.
- Burgos home games average 3.0 total goals (2.0 for, 1.0 against)
- Granada's last six matches produced 5, 5, 5, 2, 3 and 4 goals
- Granada concede 1.67 and score 1.56 goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both sides find the net often enough for a yes to be slightly favoured.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Burgos's 5 home games and 3 of Granada's 5 away games
- Burgos scored in all 5 home games; Granada scored in 3 of 5 away
- Both teams scored in five of Granada's last six matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos's home scoring output makes two or more goals a fair outcome.
- Burgos scored in all 5 home games and average 2.0 goals at home
- Burgos scored 3 and 2 in two of their home matches
- Burgos have 9 goals in 4 league home games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostBurgos over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Granada's away scoring has been good but not consistent enough to make two goals the likely outcome.
- Granada's away average is 1.6 goals per game
- Granada were beaten 3-0 at Eibar and did not score
- Granada scored one goal or fewer in parts of their away window
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonGranada under 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Both teams' recent games have almost always produced a first-half goal.
- All three of Burgos's recent home games had first-half goals
- All four of Granada's recent away games had first-half goals
- Burgos average 1.2 first-half goals at home
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' overall corner totals sit around or just above the line.
- Burgos matches average 9.2 total corners; Granada matches average 8.9
- Granada take 5.3 corners per game while conceding 3.6
- Burgos concede 6.1 corners per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Granada's games generate plenty of shots on target and push the combined total upward.
- Granada matches average 9.7 shots on target combined
- Granada away games average 11.0 combined shots on target (4.6 for, 6.4 against)
- Burgos home games average 8.2 combined shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' combined card totals sit just above the line.
- Burgos matches average 4.9 total cards (2.5 each side)
- Granada matches average 4.8 total cards
- Granada's away games average 4.8 cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance54%