Piast Gliwice2Widzew Lodz1

HT 0–0Sun 11 Oct 2026, 12:45 Predictions graded

Predictions10–377%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 18–17On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 6–13

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 18:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Piast Gliwice's home scoring meets a Widzew Lodz side that has drawn six of nine league games and is unbeaten away, but one that has also won the last three meetings and travels with seven players listed as injured.

Piast look the likelier winners without convincing. Of the reviewed prices, only Piast to win or draw at 1.53 offers anything.

Context

Widzew arrive in Gliwice without seven listed players, including goalkeeper Bartlomiej Dragowski and midfielder Lukas Lerager. That sheds first-choice experience down the spine of the team at the same time as a new coaching staff is still settling in. The caveat is that the absentees do not map onto a single unit, so the true effect on the starting eleven is less predictable than a straight count of seven absencees suggests.
- Widzew Lodz are without Bartlomiej Dragowski, Mariusz Fornalczyk, Christopher Cheng, Jusuf Gazibegovic, Carlos Isaac, Szymon Czyz and Lukas Lerager, all listed as injured.
- The absentees span goalkeeper, defence, midfield and attack.
ReportedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 18:30 · Europe/BucharestFotMob match page for Widzew Lodz vs Piast Gliwice, injury listwww.fotmob.com · 8 Oct 2026
Mateusz Stolarski took over at Widzew Lodz on 11 September and opened with league draws against Legia Warsaw and Wieczysta Krakow. His tenure is only weeks old, so a trip to Gliwice arrives while he is still setting his preferred shape and personnel. The limitation is that this is early-tenure context: a short unbeaten run points to a stable enough start, and Widzew's absences leave far less room to judge what side will actually travel.
- Mateusz Stolarski became Widzew Lodz head coach on 11 September 2026.
- His tenure began with draws against Legia Warsaw and Wieczysta Krakow.
ReportedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 18:30 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore match page for Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Lodz, match preview noteswww.flashscore.pl · 8 Oct 2026
Mariusz Fornalczyk is trying to recover full fitness after an injury picked up against Wieczysta Krakow, the club he faced in Widzew's recent league draw. He is an attacking option rather than a defender, so his fitness bears most on how much width and forward depth Widzew can carry into Gliwice. The limitation is that the reports describe a recovery attempt, not a confirmed return, so his involvement stays genuinely uncertain.
- Mariusz Fornalczyk of Widzew Lodz is trying to return to full fitness after an injury sustained in the match against Wieczysta Krakow.
- He is one of seven Widzew players listed as injured.
- M. Fornalczyk started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 18:30 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore match page for Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Lodz, injury and fitness noteswww.flashscore.pl · 8 Oct 2026FotMob match page for Widzew Lodz vs Piast Gliwice, injury listwww.fotmob.com · 8 Oct 2026
Frantisek Plach is out with a cruciate ligament injury expected to keep him unavailable until late November 2026, so Piast face Widzew without a senior goalkeeper for the rest of the autumn. The absence narrows the club's goalkeeping depth for this specific home fixture rather than altering the outfield plan. The limitation is that only Plach's injury is documented here, so it does not establish by itself who starts in goal on Sunday.
- Frantisek Plach is unavailable for Piast Gliwice with a cruciate ligament injury.
- The injury is expected to keep him out until late November 2026.
ReportedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 18:30 · Europe/BucharestFotMob match page for Widzew Lodz vs Piast Gliwice, injury listwww.fotmob.com · 8 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 80%

−6.0ppshort

At least one first-half goal is likely given Piast's home scoring and Widzew's habit of conceding one away.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 64.5%

−7.5ppshort

Piast score regularly at home but concede two per home game, and their goalkeeping problem makes a Widzew goal likely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

−5.6ppshort

Piast's home matches have been high-scoring and their goalkeeping absence raises the chance of goals at both ends.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Piast Gliwice

2.50fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 40%

0.0ppshort

Piast score heavily at home and come in with the better recent form, while Widzew have drawn six of ten and travel with seven injured players.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Piast score heavily at home and come in with the better recent form, while Widzew have drawn six of ten and travel with seven injured players.
- Piast home league record: 2W 1D 2L, 12 scored and 10 conceded in 5
- Widzew away league record: 1W 3D 0L, 6 scored and 4 conceded in 4
- Piast have won four of their last five league matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPiast GliwiceEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves in these teams' matches are usually low-scoring and level.
- Widzew average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded in competitive matches
- Widzew's away first-half record is 0.75 scored and 0.25 conceded
- Piast average 0.7 first-half goals overall
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Piast do most of their home scoring after the break while Widzew's second-half output is limited.
- Piast average 1.4 second-half goals per home league game
- Widzew average 0.75 second-half goals away
- Widzew average 0.5 second-half goals in competitive matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonPiast GliwiceEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Piast start home games reasonably well, though Widzew's first-half defence away has been very tight. First halves in these teams' matches are usually low-scoring and level.
- Piast average 1.0 first-half goals per home league game
- Widzew concede 0.25 first-half goals per away league game
- Widzew average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded in competitive matches
- Widzew's away first-half record is 0.75 scored and 0.25 conceded
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonPiast Gliwice or DrawEstimated chance71%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Piast's home matches have been high-scoring and their goalkeeping absence raises the chance of goals at both ends.
- Piast home league games average 4.4 goals combined
- Widzew away league games average 2.5 goals combined
- Piast have scored 12 in 5 home league games
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Piast score regularly at home but concede two per home game, and their goalkeeping problem makes a Widzew goal likely.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Piast's 5 home league games
- Both teams scored in 6 of Widzew's 10 competitive matches
- Piast are without a senior goalkeeper
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Piast's home scoring rate makes two or more goals a realistic outcome.
- Piast average 2.4 goals per home league game
- Piast scored 12 goals in 5 home league games
- Widzew concede 1.0 goal per away league game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonPiast Gliwice over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Widzew rarely score twice and their attacking output is modest.
- Widzew average 1.3 goals per competitive match
- Widzew scored fewer than two goals in three of their last six competitive matches
- Widzew average 0.75 first-half goals away
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonWidzew Lodz under 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
At least one first-half goal is likely given Piast's home scoring and Widzew's habit of conceding one away.
- Piast home league games average 1.8 first-half goals combined
- Widzew away league games average 1.0 first-half goal
- Widzew's competitive first halves total 1.5 goals on average
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second half has been the busier period in both teams' matches.
- Piast home league games average 2.6 second-half goals combined
- Widzew away league games average 1.5 second-half goals combined
- Piast average 1.4 second-half goals at home
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away corner splits point to roughly ten corners in this match.
- Piast home games produce 4.0 Piast corners and 5.8 opponent corners
- Widzew away games produce 3.0 Widzew corners and 6.0 opponent corners
- Piast's overall matches average 11.4 corners combined
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot counts in both teams' relevant matches sit just above the line.
- Piast home games average 30.2 shots combined
- Widzew away games average 30.5 shots combined
- Piast overall matches average 30.9 shots combined
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 29.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Piast's home matches produce plenty of shots on target, keeping the total above the line.
- Piast home games average 11.8 shots on target combined
- Piast overall matches average 10.3 shots on target combined
- Widzew away games average 8.0 shots on target combined
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance61%