Vasas SC1Kisvarda1

HT 0–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 12:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 21–6On targetOn target 6–3CornersCorners 8–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 05:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Vasas return from the international break third in NB I and fancied at home, but Kisvárda have won two of three away league games and their only recent competitive loss was 0-1 to Paks.

A Vasas win at 1.73 and Vasas to win or draw at 1.22 ask more than the season so far justifies. Two first-half prices do offer something: no goal before the break at 3.1 and the half-time draw at 2.3.

Context

Vasas's attacker went into the October window as a Hungary newcomer and came out with a debut, two starts and his first senior international goal, the last of them in the away Nations League match in Ukraine on 5 October. This fixture falls five days later, so Vasas are reintegrating a player coming off a full international block instead of a normal training week, which can influence how heavily he is used. No fitness or availability update has followed, and international form does not settle club selection, so his role against Kisvárda stays an open question.
- Tóth Milán came on at half-time against Ukraine on 25 September 2026 to make his senior Hungary debut.
- He was in Hungary's starting XI against Georgia on 2 October 2026 for the first time.
- He started again in the away Nations League match in Ukraine on 5 October 2026 and his first international goal put Hungary ahead.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 05:09 · Europe/Bucharest
Kisvárda's away section at the Vasas ground is open for this fixture, with the same arrangement planned for the Ferencváros match that follows on their calendar. That means the visitors play in front of their own travelling supporters instead of an empty away area, a matchday condition that shapes the atmosphere of an away trip. No ticket allocation, expected attendance or further detail accompanies it, so this stays a note on conditions rather than a sporting edge.
- Kisvárda's away section is open to supporters for the Saturday match at Vasas.
- The club plans the same arrangement for the Ferencváros match that follows.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 05:09 · Europe/BucharestKisvárda FC official site — away section for the Vasas matchkisvardafc.hu · 7 Oct 2026
Vasas went into the international break on the back of a 4-2 win at Debrecen on 19 September, a game they turned around from two goals down, and the result lifted them to second in the NB I. That is their only competitive evidence since mid-September, and a turnaround of that size points to a team able to recover from a poor start at home. The limit is that one pre-break result cannot show how the side will look after a fortnight of friendlies and a disrupted training week.
- Vasas won 4-2 away at Debrecen on 19 September 2026 in round eight of the NB I.
- Vasas trailed by two goals before completing the comeback.
- The result lifted Vasas to second in the table.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 05:09 · Europe/Bucharest24.hu — Debrecen 2-4 Vasas, round eight24.hu · 19 Sep 2026
Kisvárda's most recent competitive match was a 0-1 home defeat to Paks on 19 September, and they have not played a league game since. Walking into this fixture off a three-week gap means the visitors arrive without recent competitive form to lean on, which makes the preparation match they arranged during the pause their only visible preparation. The caveat is that a single defeat, and a friendly whose line-up is not public, offer little beyond the schedule itself.
- Kisvárda lost 0-1 at home to Paks on 19 September 2026 in round eight of the NB I.
- That was their most recent competitive match before the October international break.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 05:09 · Europe/BucharestKisvárda FC official site — home defeat to Pakskisvardafc.hu · 19 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Vasas SC or Draw

1.22fair 1.30

BetBugs 77% · Market 82%

−5.0ppshort

Vasas score heavily at home and sit six points clear of a Kisvarda side that has already lost three league games, so the home win is the most likely single result. Kisvarda have drawn three league games already and defend well enough to keep this close, which leaves the draw as a clear second outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.73
The read
Vasas score heavily at home and sit six points clear of a Kisvarda side that has already lost three league games, so the home win is the most likely single result.
- Vasas are 3rd with 14 points from 8 league games; Kisvarda are 8th with 9 points from 8.
- Vasas home league record is 2W-1D-1L with 10 goals scored and 5 conceded in four games.
- Kisvarda away league record is 2W-0D-1L, 5 scored and 3 conceded in three away league games.
- Vasas won the two most recent meetings 3-1: a July 2026 friendly and a 2024 NB II home match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVasas SCEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Both teams score little before half-time and have often gone in level, making the half-time draw the single most likely first-half outcome.
- Vasas average 0.67 first-half goals scored and 0.44 conceded.
- Kisvarda average 0.78 first-half goals scored and 0.44 conceded.
- Vasas have been level at half-time in three of their last six competitive matches.
- Kisvarda have been level at half-time in four of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vasas do most of their scoring after the break and have scored second-half goals in nearly every recent match, so they are the likelier second-half winner.
- Vasas average 1.56 second-half goals scored and 0.89 conceded.
- Kisvarda average 0.67 second-half goals conceded per competitive match.
- Vasas scored in the second half of five of their last six competitive matches.
- Kisvarda conceded second-half goals in their 2-1 win at MTK and 1-1 draw with Gyor.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostVasas SCEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Vasas score heavily at home and sit six points clear of a Kisvarda side that has already lost three league games, so the home win is the most likely single result. Kisvarda have drawn three league games already and defend well enough to keep this close, which leaves the draw as a clear second outcome.
- Vasas are 3rd with 14 points from 8 league games; Kisvarda are 8th with 9 points from 8.
- Vasas home league record is 2W-1D-1L with 10 goals scored and 5 conceded in four games.
- Kisvarda have drawn 3 of their 8 league games this season.
- Vasas have drawn 2 of 8 league games and 1 of 4 home league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonVasas SC or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vasas do most of their scoring later in matches, but their home first-half record is the stronger side of a narrow first-half market. Both teams score little before half-time and have often gone in level, making the half-time draw the single most likely first-half outcome.
- Vasas average 0.67 first-half goals scored and 0.44 conceded per competitive match.
- Vasas's home split shows 4 first-half goals scored and 1 conceded in four matches.
- Vasas average 0.67 first-half goals scored and 0.44 conceded.
- Kisvarda average 0.78 first-half goals scored and 0.44 conceded.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonVasas SC or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Vasas's high-scoring home games and Kisvarda's willingness to trade goals point to a total above two and a half, though not by a wide margin.
- Vasas average 2.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per competitive match.
- Kisvarda average 2.00 scored and 1.11 conceded, a figure lifted by a 9-0 cup win over Nagykozar.
- Vasas's last six competitive matches produced 6, 4, 5, 4, 1 and 3 goals.
- Vasas scored 10 goals in four home league games while Kisvarda conceded 3 in three away league games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both sides score regularly and Vasas's home matches have usually featured goals at both ends, so both teams scoring is the more likely outcome.
- Vasas have both scored and conceded in 6 of 9 competitive matches; Kisvarda in 5 of 9.
- Vasas failed to score in only 2 of their 9 competitive matches.
- Kisvarda's away league games produced 5 goals scored and 3 conceded in three matches.
- Vasas's last six competitive matches included both teams scoring in five of them.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vasas have scored at least twice in most recent matches and average 2.5 goals at home, so two or more from them is the likelier side of this line.
- Vasas average 2.22 goals per competitive match and 2.5 per home match.
- Vasas scored two or more in five of their last six competitive matches.
- Vasas scored 10 goals in four home league games.
- Kisvarda conceded 3 goals in three away league games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostVasas SC over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vasas concede in most matches and Kisvarda usually find a goal, so the home side keeping a clean sheet is the less likely outcome.
- Vasas have conceded in 7 of 9 competitive matches.
- Vasas kept only one clean sheet in four home matches.
- Kisvarda scored in 7 of their 9 competitive matches.
- Vasas conceded in all four of their most recent home matches with recorded goals.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonKisvarda to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
A first-half goal has arrived in the majority of both teams' recent matches and the combined first-half rate sits around one goal per game.
- Vasas's recent first-half scores were 1-2, 1-0, 2-1, 0-0, 0-0 and 0-1.
- Kisvarda's recent first-half scores were 0-0, 4-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-0 and 0-1.
- Vasas average 0.67 first-half goals for and 0.44 against.
- Kisvarda average 0.78 first-half goals for and 0.44 against.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score most of their goals after the break and recent second halves have usually produced more than one goal.
- Vasas average 1.56 second-half goals scored and 0.89 conceded.
- Kisvarda average 1.22 second-half goals scored and 0.67 conceded.
- Vasas's last six competitive matches produced second-half totals of 3, 3, 2, 4, 1 and 2 goals.
- Kisvarda's last six produced second-half totals of 1, 5, 3, 0, 0 and 2 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kisvarda's matches regularly produce double-figure corner totals and Vasas concede more corners than they win, which supports the higher line.
- Kisvarda average 5.57 corners for and 6.0 against across 7 competitive matches.
- Vasas average 3.25 corners for and 4.25 against across 4 competitive matches.
- Kisvarda's last four recorded matches produced 18, 7, 11 and 15 total corners.
- Vasas's home league matches produced 14 and 7 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede a healthy number of shots on target, and recent league totals have usually been around or above eight.
- Vasas average 4.0 shots on target for and 5.75 against across 4 competitive matches.
- Kisvarda average 3.43 shots on target for and 4.86 against across 7 competitive matches.
- Kisvarda's last four league matches produced 7, 14, 5 and 5 total shots on target.
- Vasas's recent league matches produced 12, 12 and 10 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vasas matches have often carried a busy card count and their opponents are booked frequently, which tilts this slightly above the line.
- Vasas average 2.25 yellow cards for and 3.75 against across 4 competitive matches.
- Kisvarda average 1.57 yellow cards for and 1.29 against across 7 competitive matches.
- Vasas's recent league matches produced 9, 8 and 3 total cards.
- Kisvarda's 1-1 home draw with Gyor produced 6 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%