Quilmes AC0Agropecuario Argentino1

HT 0–1Sat 10 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 17:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Two points and four rounds separate these sides, and the Centenario form points to Quilmes edging a tight, low-scoring game.

Quilmes at 1.75 asks more than their record justifies, and the draw at 3.4 is also a pass. The first half to finish level at 1.95, both teams to score – No at 1.57 and fewer than 2.5 goals at 1.53 all hold an edge.

Context

Zona B's relegation places are currently held by Güemes (23 points) and Chacarita (33), with Patronato, Nueva Chicago, Agropecuario and Almagro immediately above them. Quilmes, on 39, are within roughly six points of both the Reducido places and that relegation group, so one result on Saturday can move either club toward safety or into trouble with four rounds still to play. Both arrive after goalless draws — Quilmes at leaders Tristán Suárez, Agropecuario at home to Midland — so neither has scoring momentum to lean on. The counterpoint is timing: three further rounds follow, so this fixture narrows but does not settle either season.
- With four rounds left, Güemes (23 points) and Chacarita (33) hold Zona B's relegation places, with Patronato, Nueva Chicago, Agropecuario and Almagro immediately above them.
- Quilmes are 12th on 39 points and Agropecuario have 37.
- Quilmes sit within roughly six points of both the Reducido places and the relegation group.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 17:20 · Europe/BucharestFecha 33 previewwww.directvsports.com · 7 Oct 2026
Kippes was dismissed in the 74th minute at Tristán Suárez, and Quilmes defended the closing stretch with ten men to hold the Zona B leaders to a goalless draw. The red card carries a one-match ban, so Trípodi must reorganise a back line that also shipped three goals at Chacarita in September. Quilmes have rotated defenders through that position this season, which limits how much the absence changes the shape of the side. The dismissal came in a game Quilmes had contained at eleven against eleven.
- Kippes was sent off in the 74th minute of the 0-0 draw at Tristán Suárez.
- Quilmes played the closing 20 minutes with ten men and held the Zona B leaders to a goalless draw.
- Quilmes conceded three goals in a 3-0 defeat at Chacarita Juniors on 20 September.
- A. Kippes started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 17:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Agropecuario have not lost in 11 home matches at the Ofelia Rosenzuaig, yet this fixture is on the road, where their recent returns are far worse: 0-3 at San Martín de Tucumán and 0-1 at Atlanta stand out. They also arrive after a goalless home draw with Midland, a result that kept them inside the relegation-risk group. Their away points have come in tighter games such as 1-1 draws at Gimnasia Jujuy and Nueva Chicago, so the sample is mixed rather than uniformly poor. The home record that makes them dangerous does not travel with them.
- Agropecuario are unbeaten in 11 home matches in Carlos Casares this season.
- Their most recent match was a 0-0 home draw with Midland on 4 October.
- Recent away trips brought a 0-3 defeat at San Martín de Tucumán and a 0-1 loss at Atlanta.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 17:20 · Europe/Bucharest
The most recent meeting finished 0-0 on 24 May, and the three latest Centenario encounters returned a 1-0 Quilmes win in 2024 and draws in 2022 and 2021. Those games were tight and low-scoring, matching two sides who have struggled for goals this season. The sequence spans different squads and coaching staffs, so it reads as background for a fixture both need to win rather than a guide to Saturday's shape. It still frames a series in which Quilmes have avoided home defeat.
- The 2026 meeting on 24 May finished 0-0.
- The last three meetings at the Centenario produced a Quilmes win in 2024 and draws in 2022 and 2021.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 17:20 · Europe/BucharestPrevious meeting and venue detailwww.directvsports.com · 7 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Quilmes have won five of their last eight at the Centenario while Agropecuario have not won any of their last eight away and barely score on the road.
- Quilmes' last 8 home matches: 5 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats, conceding 0.50 goals per game
- Agropecuario's last 8 away matches: 0 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, scoring 0.375 per game
- Season splits: Quilmes 9-4-3 at home (19 scored, 6 conceded in 16); Agropecuario 1-5-10 away (9 scored, 26 conceded in 16)
- The reverse fixture on 24 May 2026 finished 0-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostQuilmes ACEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both teams rarely score before the break, making a level half-time score the most likely single outcome.
- Quilmes' first-half totals at home: 0.375 scored, 0.00 conceded per game
- Agropecuario's first-half totals away: 0.00 scored, 0.50 conceded per game
- Only one of Quilmes' last three home matches had a first-half goal
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Most of these teams' goals arrive after the break, and Quilmes hold the stronger second-half record at home.
- Quilmes' second-half totals per home match: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded
- Agropecuario's second-half totals per away match: 0.375 scored, 1.25 conceded
- Agropecuario conceded 3 second-half goals at San Martín de Tucumán on 13 September
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostQuilmes ACEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes have won five of their last eight at the Centenario while Agropecuario have not won any of their last eight away and barely score on the road. Both sides have recent goalless results and low scoring rates, which keeps a level scoreline well within reach.
- Quilmes' last 8 home matches: 5 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats, conceding 0.50 goals per game
- Agropecuario's last 8 away matches: 0 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, scoring 0.375 per game
- Three of the last five meetings between the clubs ended level
- Quilmes failed to score in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostQuilmes AC or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes are the stronger side before the break at home, where they have not conceded a first-half goal in their last eight. Both teams rarely score before the break, making a level half-time score the most likely single outcome.
- Quilmes concede 0.00 first-half goals per home match in their last 8
- Quilmes score 0.375 first-half goals per home match
- Quilmes' first-half totals at home: 0.375 scored, 0.00 conceded per game
- Agropecuario's first-half totals away: 0.00 scored, 0.50 conceded per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostQuilmes AC or DrawEstimated chance90%

Goals6 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Neither side has been producing many goals, and the recent meetings between them have been tight and low-scoring.
- Quilmes' last 15 matches average 2.07 total goals (1.00 scored, 1.07 conceded)
- Agropecuario's last 15 matches average 1.80 total goals (0.80 scored, 1.00 conceded)
- Four of the last five head-to-head meetings finished under 2.5 goals
- Quilmes' last 3 home matches produced 2, 1 and 0 goals for them
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Agropecuario rarely score on the road and Quilmes have kept plenty of home clean sheets, while Quilmes' own scoring has also been limited.
- Quilmes kept 4 clean sheets in their last 8 home matches
- Agropecuario scored 3 goals in their last 8 away matches (0.375 per game)
- Only 4 of Quilmes' last 15 matches and 4 of Agropecuario's last 15 had both teams scoring
- Quilmes failed to score in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes' home scoring is modest and their recent matches have often ended with one goal or none at all.
- Quilmes scored 19 goals in 16 home league games this season, 1.19 per game
- Quilmes' last 3 home matches produced 2, 1 and 0 goals for them
- Quilmes failed to score in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonQuilmes AC under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Agropecuario's away scoring is very low, so two or more away goals is unlikely.
- Agropecuario scored 3 goals in their last 8 away matches, 0.375 per game
- Season away record: 9 goals in 16 matches, 0.56 per game
- In their three most recent away matches listed they scored 0, 0 and 1 goals
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAgropecuario Argentino under 1.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Agropecuario's away goal output is low and Quilmes' home defence has been the strongest part of their season.
- Quilmes kept 4 clean sheets in their last 8 home matches
- Agropecuario failed to score in 6 of their last 15 matches overall
- Agropecuario average 0.00 first-half goals per away match in their last 8
- Agropecuario scored in only 3 of their last 8 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAgropecuario Argentino not to scoreEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Agropecuario's away defence has conceded in every recent road match, so Quilmes are likely to score.
- Agropecuario kept 0 clean sheets in their last 8 away matches
- Agropecuario conceded 26 goals in 16 away league games this season
- Quilmes scored 19 goals in 16 home league games
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostQuilmes AC to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A win without a clean sheet, or a match without a Quilmes win, covers the majority of likely outcomes.
- Quilmes failed to score in four of their last six matches
- Agropecuario have won nine penalties this season, more than any other side in the division
- Quilmes' first-half goals against at home is 0.00 per game, but all 4 home goals conceded came after the break
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First halves involving these teams are usually quiet, with both sides averaging well under one goal before the break.
- Quilmes' first-half totals per home match: 0.375 scored, 0.00 conceded
- Agropecuario's first-half totals per away match: 0.00 scored, 0.50 conceded
- Three of Quilmes' last six matches had no first-half goal from either side
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in these teams' matches have generally produced one goal or none.
- Quilmes' last 15 matches average 1.40 second-half goals in total
- Agropecuario's last 15 matches average 1.33 second-half goals in total
- Quilmes' last 3 home matches produced 1, 1 and 1 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance59%

Prediction history

Quilmes AC: 4/7 recent goals projections matched

4 of 7 comparable goals projections involving Quilmes AC matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Quilmes AC7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Primera Nacional