Spokane Velocity FC3Portland Hearts Of Pine3

HT 3–0Sun 4 Oct 2026, 01:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges1–150%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 07:20 · Europe/Bucharest

A home side with 10 wins from 14 league games at home against a Portland team that has drawn six of 14 on the road: the home win is the likeliest single result, with Portland's habit of scoring in almost every game the complication.

Two quoted prices hold up — fewer than five goals at 2.25 and the draw at 21.0, though Spokane's home record is the obvious argument against a level result.

Context

Portland's edge in this series is venue-specific: they have won both games at home, while Spokane have not lost a home meeting.
The most recent meeting, on May 30, 2026, went Portland's way 2-1, and the 6-1 in October 2025 is the only one of the four to produce more than three goals. For a Spokane side with a 10-1-3 home league record, the 0-0 and 1-1 at their own ground are the closer precedent, and both sit with Portland's six away draws from 14 league games.
- Apr 6, 2025: Spokane Velocity 0-0 Portland Hearts of Pine (USL League One).
- Oct 21, 2025: Portland Hearts of Pine 6-1 Spokane Velocity.
- Nov 10, 2025: Spokane Velocity 1-1 Portland Hearts of Pine.
- May 30, 2026: Portland Hearts of Pine 2-1 Spokane Velocity — four meetings on record since April 2025.
The contrast between the two clubs' home and away records is the central question of this fixture.
Spokane are 6th on 46 points from 26 games with a 10-1-3 home return; Portland are 14th on 30 from 28 with a 2-6-6 away record. Portland's six away draws are the counterweight to Spokane's home form, and the two drawn meetings in this series at Spokane support the idea that a level result is a live route.
- Standings after Spokane's 26 league games: 6th, 46 points, 14W-4D-8L; home record 14 games, 10W-1D-3L, 27 goals for, 17 against.
- Standings after Portland's 28 league games: 14th, 30 points, 7W-9D-12L; away record 14 games, 2W-6D-6L, 20 goals for, 28 against.
Portland's season has been defined by matches in which they score without winning.
Two wins and four draws from those 13 matches, with 2.00 goals conceded per game, is the shape of a side that is seldom shut out but rarely keeps opponents out. Spokane scored in 13 of their 15 competitive matches, so a Portland clean sheet looks unlikely, while Portland finding the net is a reasonable expectation on the same record.
- Portland's 13 competitive matches, Jul 18 to Sep 26, 2026: 2W-4D-7L, 12 scored, 12 conceded, both teams scored in 11, 1 clean sheet.
- Goals conceded average 2.00 per competitive match across that 13-match sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Spokane's strong home record and Portland's low away win count point to a home win.
- Spokane are 10W-1D-3L at home in USL League One, with 27 goals for and 17 against.
- Portland are 2W-6D-6L away in the league, with 20 goals for and 28 against.
- Spokane's last 15 competitive matches: 9 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses.
- Portland's last 13 competitive matches: 2 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSpokane Velocity FCEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring rates are low enough to make a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Spokane home first-half total: 1.29 goals.
- Portland away first-half total: 1.17 goals.
- Spokane's last six first halves include two 0-0s.
- Portland's last six first halves include one 0-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Spokane's strong second-half scoring and Portland's weak away second-half defence favour a home second-half win.
- Spokane home second-half goals: 1.43 for, 0.57 against.
- Portland away second-half goals: 0.67 for, 1.50 against.
- Spokane's last six second halves: 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses.
- Portland's last six second halves: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSpokane Velocity FCEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spokane's strong home record and Portland's low away win count point to a home win. Portland's high away draw rate and the recent tight home meetings keep a draw in play.
- Spokane are 10W-1D-3L at home in USL League One, with 27 goals for and 17 against.
- Portland are 2W-6D-6L away in the league, with 20 goals for and 28 against.
- Portland have drawn 6 of 14 away league matches.
- Spokane have drawn 1 of 14 home league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSpokane Velocity FC or DrawEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spokane's home advantage could give them a narrow first-half lead, but the first-half stats are close. Both teams' first-half scoring rates are low enough to make a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Spokane home first-half goals: 0.57 for, 0.71 against.
- Portland away first-half goals: 0.83 for, 0.33 against.
- Spokane home first-half total: 1.29 goals.
- Portland away first-half total: 1.17 goals.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSpokane Velocity FC or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals7 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Recent totals are generally below five, even with Portland's occasional high-scoring loss.
- Spokane's last six competitive matches produced 9 goals for and 7 against.
- Portland's last six competitive matches produced 8 goals for and 13 against.
- Spokane's last three matches had 1-0, 1-0 and 2-2 scorelines.
- Portland away matches average 3.33 total goals, close to the line.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 4.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score regularly, and Portland has found the net in every recent away sample.
- Portland scored in 12 of 13 competitive matches and in all six away split matches.
- Spokane home matches had both teams scoring in 5 of 7.
- Spokane scored in 13 of 15 competitive matches.
- Three of the four head-to-head meetings had both teams score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Spokane's home scoring average and Portland's away conceding rate suggest two goals is possible.
- Spokane average 2.00 goals per home match.
- Portland concede 1.83 goals per away match.
- Spokane scored two or more in two of their last six overall.
- The 2025 home meetings with Portland ended 1-1 and 0-0.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSpokane Velocity FC over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's recent output is often a single goal, and Spokane can limit them at home.
- Portland scored exactly one in four of their last six.
- Spokane have 4 clean sheets in 15 competitive matches.
- Portland average 1.50 goals per away match.
- Portland scored one or fewer in 4 of their last 6.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostPortland Hearts Of Pine under 1.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's regular scoring makes a Spokane clean sheet unlikely.
- Portland scored in 12 of 13 competitive matches.
- Portland scored in all six away split matches.
- Spokane home clean sheets: 1 in 7.
- Spokane overall clean sheets: 4 in 15.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPortland Hearts Of Pine to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spokane's home scoring record makes a Portland clean sheet unlikely.
- Spokane scored in 6 of 7 home matches.
- Spokane scored in 13 of 15 competitive matches.
- Portland have 1 clean sheet in 13 competitive matches.
- Portland away clean sheets: 0 in 6.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSpokane Velocity FC to scoreEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent first halves usually produce at least one goal.
- Spokane's last six first halves had goals in 4 of 6.
- Portland's last six first halves had goals in 5 of 6.
- Spokane home first-half total: 1.29 goals.
- Portland away first-half total: 1.17 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals are generally limited to one team, so both scoring is unlikely.
- Spokane's last six first halves had both scoring in 1 of 6.
- Portland's last six first halves had both scoring in 1 of 6.
- Spokane first-half average goals: 0.60 for, 0.80 against.
- Portland first-half average goals: 0.62 for, 0.85 against.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half averages are around two goals, so two or more is plausible.
- Spokane home second-half total: 2.00 goals.
- Portland away second-half total: 2.17 goals.
- Portland's last six second halves included 4 and 3 goal totals.
- Spokane's last six second halves had over 1.5 in 2 of 6.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Spokane Velocity FC: 5/7 recent winner projections matched

5 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Spokane Velocity FC matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Spokane Velocity FC7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL League One