Portland Hearts Of Pine1AV Alta FC0

HT 0–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges2–625%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 07:54 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is on AV Alta to score over 0.5 goals at 1.30, with a small positive edge.

Avoid Over 2.5 goals, BTTS, and Portland or Draw, as the odds are too short relative to model probabilities. Both teams' defensive issues suggest goals, but the market has already priced in much of that risk.

Context

Portland Hearts of Pine sit 13th in USL League One with 26 points from 25 matches.
Their home record is weak: four wins, three draws, and five losses in 12 home games. Recent home results include a 4-1 loss to Fort Wayne on August 29 and a 2-1 loss to Forward Madison on August 16. This suggests they may struggle to control the match against Alta.
- Portland lost 4-1 at home to Fort Wayne on 2026-08-29.
- Portland lost 2-1 at home to Forward Madison on 2026-08-16.
- Portland have only 4 wins in 12 home matches this season.
Portland midfielder M. Wada has not started any of the last five fixtures with available lineups, with M. Poon-Angeron starting in the same position in all five.
Wada's lower-leg surgery and likely season-long absence removes a midfield option for Portland. Poon-Angeron has been the consistent replacement in recent matches, so the starting role appears settled, but the loss reduces rotation depth for this fixture.
- Portland announced on April 14 that M. Wada had suffered a major lower-leg injury against One Knoxville SC.
- The club said Wada underwent surgery on April 12 and was likely to miss the rest of the 2026 season.
- M. Wada started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- M. Poon-Angeron started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when M. Wada did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 07:53 · Europe/BucharestUSL League One injury announcementwww.uslleagueone.com · 14 Apr 2026
AV Alta FC are 9th in USL League One with 32 points from 26 matches.
Their away record is poor: three wins, two draws, and seven losses in 12 away games. They lost 5-0 at Charlotte Independence on August 28 and 3-2 at Richmond Kickers on August 1. This suggests they may struggle defensively away from home.
- Alta lost 5-0 away to Charlotte Independence on 2026-08-28.
- Alta lost 3-2 away to Richmond Kickers on 2026-08-01.
- Alta have only 3 wins in 12 away matches this season.
AV Alta attacker Ilias Aoumaich started one of the last five fixtures with available lineups, with G. Antwi starting in the same position twice when Aoumaich did not.
Aoumaich's red card against One Knoxville leaves his availability for this match unresolved. If he is suspended, Antwi is the likely replacement based on recent usage, but the situation remains uncertain until confirmed.
- Ilias Aoumaich scored AV Alta's goal in the 21st minute against One Knoxville.
- One Knoxville's official match report records a yellow card for Aoumaich in the 37th minute and a red card in the 49th minute.
- Ilias Aoumaich started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- G. Antwi started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Ilias Aoumaich did not start.
To watchSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 07:53 · Europe/BucharestOne Knoxville SC match reportwww.oneknoxsc.com · 6 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Portland's last 15 matches averaged 3.9 total goals and AV Alta's 2.7, driven by leaky defenses on both sides.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.53fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly score and concede, but the odds price in a higher BTTS probability than our model supports.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams frequently see first-half goals, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Team to ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

AV Alta FC to score

1.13fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

Portland's defense is porous and AV Alta regularly scores, but the odds are heavily juiced against the home clean sheet.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H history shows a strong draw tendency, and both teams have inconsistent form, making a draw a plausible outcome.
- Portland's last 5 matches: W, L, L, D, D (2 draws).
- AV Alta's last 5 matches: L, L, L, L, W (no draws).
- H2H last 4 meetings: 3 draws and 1 AV Alta win.
- Portland home record: 4W-3D-5L; AV Alta away record: 3W-2D-7L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's home advantage and AV Alta's poor away form support a double chance for the home side.
- Portland home record: 4W-3D-5L (58% unbeaten at home).
- AV Alta away record: 3W-2D-7L (42% unbeaten away).
- H2H: Portland unbeaten in 3 of last 4 meetings (2 draws, 1 loss).
- Portland's last 5 home matches: W, L, L, D, W (2 wins, 1 draw).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonPortland Hearts Of Pine or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half scoring rates and often trail or draw at half-time, making a first-half draw likely.
- Portland's last 15 matches: led at half-time in 21%, trailed in 57%, drew in 22%.
- AV Alta's last 15 matches: led at half-time in 27%, trailed in 40%, drew in 33%.
- H2H last 4 meetings: first-half results not available, but full-time draws common.
- Both teams average 0.5 first-half goals scored.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the draw tendency in H2H and both teams' ability to cancel each other out, a draw at both half-time and full-time is a low-probability but plausible outcome.
- Portland's last 15 matches: 3 draws at full-time, 2 of which were level at half-time.
- AV Alta's last 15 matches: 2 draws at full-time, 1 of which was level at half-time.
- H2H: 3 draws in last 4 meetings, but half-time scores unknown.
- Both teams have moderate draw rates (Portland 32%, AV Alta 31% in season).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals2 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches show high total goal averages, driven by Portland's leaky defense and AV Alta's occasional high-scoring games, supporting Over 2.5.
- Portland's last 15 matches averaged 3.9 total goals (1.7 for, 2.2 against).
- AV Alta's last 15 matches averaged 2.7 total goals (1.1 for, 1.6 against).
- Portland's last 5 matches: 2-1, 2-3, 1-4, 1-1, 1-1 (avg 3.4 total goals).
- AV Alta's last 5 matches: 1-2, 0-5, 1-2, 0-1, 3-0 (avg 3.0 total goals).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly score and concede, making BTTS likely given their defensive vulnerabilities.
- Portland scored in 13 of their last 15 matches (87%).
- AV Alta scored in 10 of their last 15 matches (67%).
- Portland conceded in 14 of their last 15 matches (93%).
- AV Alta conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches (80%).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently see first-half goals, making Over 0.5 in the first half a strong likelihood.
- Portland's last 15 matches: first-half goals in 13 matches (87%).
- AV Alta's last 15 matches: first-half goals in 12 matches (80%).
- Portland averages 1.5 first-half goals per match (0.5 for, 1.0 against).
- AV Alta averages 1.2 first-half goals per match (0.5 for, 0.7 against).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is common for both teams, especially Portland, supporting Over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Portland's last 15 matches averaged 2.4 second-half goals (1.2 for, 1.2 against).
- AV Alta's last 15 matches averaged 1.5 second-half goals (0.6 for, 0.9 against).
- Portland's last 5 matches: second-half goals in all 5 (avg 2.6).
- AV Alta's last 5 matches: second-half goals in 4 of 5 (avg 1.8).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's defense is porous, and AV Alta regularly scores, making a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Portland conceded in 14 of their last 15 matches (93%).
- Portland home record: conceded in 10 of 12 home matches (83%).
- AV Alta scored in 10 of their last 15 matches (67%).
- AV Alta away record: scored in 8 of 12 away matches (67%).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAV Alta FC to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AV Alta's away defense is weak, and Portland consistently finds the net, making an away clean sheet unlikely.
- AV Alta conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches (80%).
- AV Alta away record: conceded in 10 of 12 away matches (83%).
- Portland scored in 13 of their last 15 matches (87%).
- Portland home record: scored in 10 of 12 home matches (83%).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPortland Hearts Of Pine to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's scoring rate and AV Alta's away defensive struggles support Portland scoring at least 2 goals.
- Portland averages 1.7 goals per match overall.
- Portland home matches: 18 goals in 12 games (1.5 per game).
- Portland scored 2+ goals in 8 of their last 15 matches (53%).
- AV Alta concedes 1.6 goals per match overall, and 1.83 per away match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostPortland Hearts Of Pine over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AV Alta's consistent scoring and Portland's defensive frailty make an away goal highly likely.
- AV Alta scored in 10 of their last 15 matches (67%).
- AV Alta away record: scored in 8 of 12 away matches (67%).
- Portland conceded in 14 of their last 15 matches (93%).
- Portland home record: conceded in 10 of 12 home matches (83%).
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostAV Alta FC over 0.5Estimated chance78%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 80% leaves no cushion vs our 68% estimate; vig too heavy for a directional Over play.

Prediction history

Portland Hearts Of Pine have been highly reliable when projected Over 2.5 goals

Portland Hearts Of Pine have fulfilled 7 of 8 Over 2.5 goals predictions. Their average estimated probability was 60.6%, with an expected 4.9 fulfilled predictions, indicating strong overperformance. The current prediction of 62% sits within their historical range of 55% to 72%, and they have been equally reliable at home and away.

Recent evidence for Portland Hearts Of Pine8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·USL League One