Tristan Suarez0Quilmes AC0

HT 0–0Sat 3 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges0–40%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Primera Nacional leaders Tristan Suarez host a side with one away win in 15 league games, so a narrow home win is the likely result — though the leaders draw often and rarely score twice.

Four quoted prices offer value: Tristan Suarez to win at 2.8, either team to win at 1.8, over 2.5 goals at 8.5 and both teams to score at 5.0. The draw at 1.91 and a Quilmes win at 4.2 do not.

Context

The leaders have been built on not conceding rather than on scoring freely, so a single Quilmes goal would change the shape of this match. Their 1.13 goals per match and six draws in 15 league home games explain why so many of these games stay tight. Quilmes have managed 11 goals in 15 league away games, which suggests clear chances will be scarce for them.
- 14 June to 27 September 2026: 15 competitive matches, 9 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats.
- 10 goals scored, 4 conceded and 11 clean sheets across that 15-match window.
- Averages of 1.13 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per match.
Quilmes' away form is the weakest part of their season: one win, four draws and ten defeats across 15 league away games. Two goals in six away matches inside the window show how rarely they break teams down. Tristan Suarez's defence will not hand them much, so a draw would already count as a good afternoon.
- 20 June to 20 September 2026: 6 away matches, 0 wins, 1 draw, 5 defeats.
- 2 goals scored and 6 conceded across those six away matches, with no clean sheets.
The draw rate is the main reason a strong home record has not produced a bigger points haul, and it is the clearest risk in this fixture. Six of 15 home league games have ended level. Quilmes' one away win all season keeps the home side the likeliest winner, but the margin is unlikely to be wide, and Tristan Suarez's listed league form is W-D-D-D-W.
- As of 28 September 2026: 31 league matches, 15 wins, 12 draws, 4 defeats, 57 points, first in the 36-team Primera Nacional.
- Home league record: 15 matches, 8 wins, 6 draws, 1 defeat, 18 scored and 7 conceded.
Quilmes have scored three times at this ground before, the counterweight to Tristan Suarez's defensive record. The result came in April 2024, since when the home side have conceded four goals in 15 competitive matches from 14 June to 27 September 2026. Repeating it would take a very different Quilmes performance from the one their league away record describes.
- 14 April 2024: Tristan Suarez 1-3 Quilmes in Primera Nacional, a Quilmes away win.

BetBugs edges

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BetBugs probabilities

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Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.80
The read
The league leaders almost never lose at home, while Quilmes have won once on the road all season.
- Tristan Suarez lead the 36-team Primera Nacional on 57 points with 15 wins, 12 draws and 4 defeats in 31 matches
- Their league home record is 8 wins, 6 draws and 1 defeat, with 18 goals scored and 7 conceded in 15 home games
- Quilmes' league away record is 1 win, 4 draws and 10 defeats, with 11 scored and 21 conceded in 15 away games
- Tristan Suarez have kept 11 clean sheets in their 15 matches in this window
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTristan SuarezEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First halves in these matches are usually goalless, with both teams slow to score early.
- Only 3 first-half goals were scored across Tristan Suarez's last 6 matches
- Tristan Suarez average 0.5 first-half goals at home and concede none in the window
- Quilmes average 0.17 first-half goals per away match in the window
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tristan Suarez do most of their scoring after half-time and Quilmes fade on the road.
- Tristan Suarez score 1 goal per home match after half-time and concede 0.17
- Quilmes concede 1 second-half goal per away match in the window
- Quilmes have yet to draw a second half away, losing 5 of 6 away matches in the window
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostTristan SuarezEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The league leaders almost never lose at home, while Quilmes have won once on the road all season. Tristan Suarez draw often and their matches are usually low-scoring, so the game can stay level.
- Tristan Suarez lead the 36-team Primera Nacional on 57 points with 15 wins, 12 draws and 4 defeats in 31 matches
- Their league home record is 8 wins, 6 draws and 1 defeat, with 18 goals scored and 7 conceded in 15 home games
- Tristan Suarez have drawn 12 of their 31 league matches
- 6 of Tristan Suarez's 15 league home matches have ended level
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTristan Suarez or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tristan Suarez score first-half goals at a modest rate but face a side that leaks early on the road. First halves in these matches are usually goalless, with both teams slow to score early.
- Tristan Suarez average 0.53 first-half goals per match and concede 0.13
- Their first-half concession at home is 0 in the window
- Only 3 first-half goals were scored across Tristan Suarez's last 6 matches
- Tristan Suarez average 0.5 first-half goals at home and concede none in the window
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonTristan Suarez or DrawEstimated chance87%

Goals8 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side scores much and Tristan Suarez's games are usually settled by a single goal.
- Tristan Suarez average 1.47 total goals per match, rising to 1.67 in their home matches in the window
- Quilmes score 0.67 goals per away match in the window
- The last five meetings produced 1, 1, 0, 1 and 4 goals
- Tristan Suarez have conceded 4 goals in 15 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tristan Suarez shut opponents out regularly and Quilmes struggle for goals on the road.
- Tristan Suarez kept 11 clean sheets in 15 matches and 5 in 6 home games
- Quilmes have failed to score in their last 3 away matches
- Both teams scored in only 3 of Tristan Suarez's 15 matches
- Quilmes scored 2 goals across 6 away matches in the window
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tristan Suarez score in small numbers and rarely put two or more past an opponent.
- Tristan Suarez scored 4 goals across their last 6 matches
- Their window average is 1.13 goals per match and 1.5 in home games
- Only one of their last 6 matches produced 2 goals
- Quilmes kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonTristan Suarez under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes score rarely away and face the tightest defence in the division.
- Quilmes average 0.67 goals per away match in the window
- Quilmes failed to score in their last 3 away matches
- Tristan Suarez have conceded 4 goals in 15 matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonQuilmes AC under 1.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tristan Suarez shut out opponents in most home games and Quilmes rarely score on their travels.
- Tristan Suarez kept 5 clean sheets in 6 home matches in the window and 11 in 15 matches
- Quilmes failed to score in their last 3 away matches
- Quilmes average 0.67 goals per away match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonQuilmes AC not to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tristan Suarez score in most of their home games, and Quilmes have not kept an away clean sheet.
- Quilmes kept 0 clean sheets in 6 away matches in the window
- Tristan Suarez scored 5 goals across 6 home matches in the window
- Tristan Suarez score 1.13 goals per match overall
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostTristan Suarez to scoreEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Not every home win comes with a clean sheet, and many home games end level instead.
- Tristan Suarez won 8 of 15 league home matches, so not every home win is a shutout
- Quilmes scored in 2 of 6 away matches in the window
- Tristan Suarez drew 6 of their 15 league home matches
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes have neither won nor kept clean sheets away, so a shutout win is very unlikely.
- Quilmes have 1 win in 15 league away matches
- Tristan Suarez have conceded 4 goals in 15 matches and scored in most home games
- Quilmes kept 0 clean sheets in 6 away matches in the window
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance95%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
There is roughly an even chance of an early goal, with Quilmes conceding early away from home.
- Tristan Suarez average 0.53 first-half goals overall and 0.5 in 6 home matches
- Quilmes concede 1 first-half goal per away match in the window
- Quilmes average 0.33 first-half goals overall
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second half in these matches usually contains one goal or none at all.
- Tristan Suarez's last 6 matches produced 5 second-half goals in total
- Quilmes' last 6 matches produced 6 second-half goals in total
- Tristan Suarez draw 12 of 31 league matches, with many ending 0-0 or 1-0
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Prediction history

Tristan Suarez: 6/6 recent goals projections matched

6 of 6 comparable goals projections involving Tristan Suarez matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Tristan Suarez6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·Primera Nacional