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Predictions graded

Almeria2Burgos1

HT 0–1Sat 3 Oct 2026, 14:15 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

PossPossession 69%–31%ShotsShots 25–9On targetOn target 8–4CornersCorners 8–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 18:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Third hosts fourth in Segunda, and the tension is Almería's perfect home league record against a Burgos side unbeaten in five and hard to break down.

The likeliest shape is a narrow Almería win in a low-scoring game. No quoted price came with the reviewed selections, so nothing here is worth backing.

Context

Almería have conceded only four goals across seven league games under García Pimienta, per Diario de Almería, with four clean sheets, against the 13 goals Rubi's side had let in over the same span. That defensive control is the main reason the team sits near the top of the table going into this fixture. Burgos arrive on a three-match winning run, so their ability to break down an organised block is the central question of the game. The comparison with Rubi spans a different squad and a different season, so it illustrates a change of approach as much as a change in quality.
- Diario de Almería (28 Sep): Almería have kept four clean sheets in seven matchdays and conceded four goals, an average of 0.57 per game.
- Diario de Almería (28 Sep): Rubi's Almería had conceded 13 goals with two clean sheets over the same number of fixtures.
- La Voz de Almería (14 Sep): contrasts Rubi's 'queda mucha Liga' with García Pimienta's 'así no nos llega'.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 18:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Cipenga was initially listed among the players Almería would lose to international duty for this fixture, but DR Congo's staff left him out of their friendlies against Uganda and he rejoined the group instead. Recovering him removes a projected absence and restores a wide option to the squad. The specific caveat is that he played for DR Congo against Zimbabwe on 28 September, five days before kickoff, so his readiness depends on how quickly the club judges him recovered.
- Javier Góngora (18 Sep): Cipenga would miss only the Mallorca trip on international duty and be available for the Burgos game.
- Javier Góngora (27 Sep): DR Congo coach Sébastien Desabre left Cipenga out of the friendlies against Uganda.
- IDEAL Almería (28 Sep): 'Junyent y Cipenga regresan para el Burgos'.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 18:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Džodić's absence is the clearest of Almería's international-duty losses for this fixture, flagged in mid-September as covering both the Mallorca trip and the Burgos visit and described as prolonged on 28 September. It removes a first-team midfielder from a squad also carrying injuries in the same part of the pitch. Because he had already missed the previous matchday, this is a continuation the coaching staff have had time to plan around rather than a fresh disruption.
- Javier Góngora (18 Sep): Džodić is out for both the Mallorca and Burgos fixtures on Serbia duty.
- IDEAL Almería (28 Sep): 'Dzodic prolonga su ausencia' for the Burgos game.
- Conjunto Indálico (30 Sep): lists Džodić among the absentees for the Burgos fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 18:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Both players were reported as missing the previous matchday against Eldense as well as this trip to Almería. Iribarne is a goalkeeper, so his absence is not expected to affect the starting line-up, while Appin's removes a midfield option from a squad that has just won three games in a row. The call-ups are documented by specialist coverage rather than a club announcement, so they carry marginally less weight than the confirmed international news on the Almería side.
- La Categoria de Plata (21 Sep): Kévin Appin (Martinique) and Bruno Iribarne (Spain U21) miss matchday 7 against Eldense and matchday 8 against Almería.
- Sergio González Pulgar (16 Sep): Appin is called up by Martinique and misses the Almería game on 3 October.
- Diario de Almería (19 Sep): the international break leaves Burgos short of players for its game against Almería.
ReportedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 18:20 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Almeria's strong home record and recent four-win run give them the edge, though Burgos are well-organised and unbeaten in five.
- Almeria home league record: 3W 0D 0L, 8 goals for, 2 against.
- Almeria overall: 6W 1D 3L in 10 competitive matches, 5 clean sheets.
- Burgos away league record: 1W 1D 1L, 2 goals for, 2 against.
- H2H: Burgos won 2-1 at Almeria in Dec 2025, drew 0-0 in May 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlmeriaEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Burgos defend well early and Almeria do not always lead at half-time.
- Almeria overall 1H goals for: 1.0, against: 0.2.
- Burgos overall 1H goals for: 0.73, against: 0.55.
- Burgos away 1H goals for: 0.4, against: 0.4.
- Recent Almeria 1H results: three wins, two draws, one loss.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Almeria's strong home record and recent four-win run give them the edge, though Burgos are well-organised and unbeaten in five. Burgos's solid away form and strong defence make a draw a realistic outcome.
- Almeria home league record: 3W 0D 0L, 8 goals for, 2 against.
- Almeria overall: 6W 1D 3L in 10 competitive matches, 5 clean sheets.
- Almeria home league: 3W 0D 0L.
- Burgos away league: 1W 1D 1L.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAlmeria or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Almeria start strongly at home, often scoring before the break. Burgos defend well early and Almeria do not always lead at half-time.
- Almeria overall 1H goals for average: 1.0.
- Almeria home 1H goals for average: 1.8.
- Almeria overall 1H goals for: 1.0, against: 0.2.
- Burgos overall 1H goals for: 0.73, against: 0.55.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostAlmeria or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences are strong and recent meetings have been low-scoring, with Burgos conceding only 0.4 goals per away game.
- Almeria overall total goals average: 2.3.
- Burgos overall total goals average: 2.0.
- Burgos away total goals average: 1.4.
- Recent Almeria last six total goals: 12 (2.0 per game).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides keep clean sheets frequently, and Burgos have scored only twice in three away league games.
- Almeria clean sheets: 5 in 10.
- Burgos clean sheets: 6 in 11.
- Burgos away both teams scored: 1 of 5.
- Almeria recent both teams scored: 1 of 6.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Almeria frequently score early at home, and their home first-half average is high.
- Almeria home 1H goals for average: 1.8.
- Burgos away 1H goals for average: 0.4.
- Almeria overall 1H goals for average: 1.0.
- Recent Almeria 1H goals: 1,2,0,3,0,0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong first-half defensive records, so a first-half both-score is unlikely.
- Almeria overall 1H goals against average: 0.2.
- Burgos away 1H goals for average: 0.4.
- Burgos overall 1H goals against average: 0.55.
- Almeria home 1H goals against average: 0.2.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance85%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages point to a total above 7.5, though recent Almeria games have sometimes stayed low.
- Almeria overall total corners average: 9.7.
- Almeria home total corners average: 11.0.
- Burgos overall total corners average: 9.46.
- Burgos away total corners average: 10.6.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average well over 22.5 shots, and recent Almeria games have mostly cleared that line.
- Almeria overall total shots average: 24.4.
- Almeria home total shots average: 24.6.
- Burgos overall total shots average: 25.18.
- Burgos away total shots average: 23.4.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots-on-target averages are just above 6.5, though Burgos away games tend to be lower.
- Almeria overall total SoT average: 7.2.
- Almeria home total SoT average: 8.8.
- Burgos overall total SoT average: 7.0.
- Burgos away total SoT average: 5.4.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around five cards per game, and recent matches have often been card-heavy.
- Almeria overall total cards average: 4.9.
- Burgos overall total cards average: 5.0.
- Burgos away total cards average: 5.6.
- Recent Almeria cards: 9,1,10,4,7,2.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Prediction history

Almeria: 5/5 recent cards projections matched

5 of 5 comparable cards projections involving Almeria matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Almeria5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 Jun·La Liga 2

Almeria3-2

Castellon

BetBugsOver 4.5 cards·60%→5 total cards

Matched

9 Jun 2026

La Liga 2

Almeria3-2

Castellon

Over 4.5 cards

60%probability

5 total cards

Matched

31 May·La Liga 2

Almeria1-0

Real Valladolid

BetBugsOver 4.5 cards·60%→6 total cards

Matched

31 May 2026

La Liga 2

Almeria1-0

Real Valladolid

Over 4.5 cards

60%probability

6 total cards

Matched

24 May·La Liga 2

Sporting Gijon3-1 Almeria

Almeria

BetBugsOver 4.5 cards·60%→9 total cards

Matched

24 May 2026

La Liga 2

Sporting Gijon3-1

Almeria

Over 4.5 cards

60%probability

9 total cards

Matched

16 May·La Liga 2

Almeria1-2

Las Palmas

BetBugsOver 4.5 cards·55%→5 total cards

Matched

16 May 2026

La Liga 2

Almeria1-2

Las Palmas

Over 4.5 cards

55%probability

5 total cards

Matched

9 May·La Liga 2

Burgos CF0-0 Almeria

Almeria

BetBugsOver 4.5 cards·74%→6 total cards

Matched

9 May 2026

La Liga 2

Burgos CF0-0

Almeria

Over 4.5 cards

74%probability

6 total cards

Matched

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

D0-0BurgosvAlmeriaMay 9, 2026SEG

L1-2AlmeriavBurgosDec 14, 2025SEG

L3-1BurgosvAlmeriaMar 21, 2025SEG

W2-0AlmeriavBurgosOct 5, 2024SEG

W0-2BurgosvAlmeriaApr 30, 2022SEG

Almeria: 3 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Segunda División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Almeria Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)	7	5	0	2	11-4	15	WWWWL
4	Burgos Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)	7	4	2	1	11-7	14	WWWDD