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Predictions graded

St Kitts and Nevis3Cuba3

HT 1–2Fri 2 Oct 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 16–22On targetOn target 7–7CornersCorners 3–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 07:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Two unbeaten Group C leaders meet on neutral ground in Port of Spain, Cuba without a goal conceded and St Kitts and Nevis having let in one.

Cuba's stronger record and a 4-0 head-to-head win make them the likelier winners, but 1.78 is a shade tight. Four reviewed prices hold something: a level half-time score at 2.2, both teams not to score at 1.91, at least one first-half goal at 1.33 and St Kitts and Nevis level or ahead at the break at 1.53.

Context

Trinidad and Tobago's Guardian and CNC3 reported on 16 September that Grenada relocated its 2026/27 Nations League home fixtures because of ongoing concerns about the playing surface at the Kirani James Athletics Stadium, and will host two League B Group C double-headers at the Hasely Crawford Stadium in Port of Spain on 2 and 5 October. St Kitts and Nevis and Cuba meet inside that window, so this fixture is played in Trinidad rather than at the Sugar Boyz's own ground, removing the usual home conditions for the nominal home side. The relocation notices name the host association rather than the individual fixtures, so the exact ground for this game rests on the double-header schedule and is best treated as reported rather than officially confirmed.
- The Grenada Football Association relocated its 2026/27 Concacaf Nations League home fixtures to Trinidad and Tobago because of ongoing concerns over the playing surface at the Kirani James Athletics Stadium in Grenada.
- Grenada will host two League B, Group C double-headers at the Hasely Crawford Stadium in Port of Spain on 2 and 5 October 2026.
ReportedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 07:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Cuba have spent their Group C minutes on the front foot, and the 2-0 scoreline against Bonaire understated how one-sided the game was.
Shot counts this lopsided are rare in a competitive international, and they matter here because St Kitts and Nevis concede 2.89 goals per competitive match across nine games. Bonaire sit well below the level of this fixture, so the number is a form guide rather than a forecast.
- On 28 September 2026 Cuba beat Bonaire 2-0 in the CONCACAF Nations League, with 26 shots to 8 (seven on target to three).
St Kitts and Nevis arrive on two straight group wins, yet their wider competitive record is much looser at the back.
The distance between a strong group start and a poor defensive record over nine competitive matches is the main reason Cuba are the likelier winners. Only competitive fixtures are counted in that sample, so friendlies are excluded.
- Nine competitive matches from 18 November 2024 to 29 September 2026: three wins, one draw, five defeats, 1.67 goals scored and 2.89 conceded per match.
Cuban state sports outlets INDER and JIT reported the squad travelled to Basseterre, St Kitts and Nevis for its opening Group C fixtures, and that the 28 September 2-0 win over Bonaire — Cuba's designated home match — was played there. Cuba therefore gets none of the usual home conditions in this group, and the October window moves to Trinidad for the meetings with St Kitts and Nevis. These reports establish travel and venue only, so they say nothing about Cuba's selection or form.
- Cuban state sports coverage said the men's national team was in San Cristóbal y Nieves and would play its opening Group C matches on that island.
- Cuba's 2-0 win over Bonaire on 28 September 2026 was played in Basseterre, St Kitts and Nevis.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 07:53 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Cuba's strong defence and better overall record make them favourites, especially against a St Kitts side that concedes regularly.
- Cuba have won 6 of 12 competitive matches and kept 6 clean sheets.
- They score 1.75 and concede 1.08 goals per competitive match.
- St Kitts concede 2.89 goals per competitive match.
- Cuba beat St Kitts 4-0 in the most recent head-to-head.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCubaEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.20
The read
First halves are often tight and both teams have modest first-half scoring numbers, making a level half-time score likely.
- St Kitts matches average 2.11 first-half goals, while Cuba matches average 1.58.
- Cuba have a first-half goal difference of +0.42 per competitive match.
- St Kitts have a first-half goal difference of -0.33 per competitive match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves often finish level and neither team has a dominant second-half record, making a draw plausible.
- St Kitts matches average 2.45 second-half goals, Cuba matches average 1.25.
- Cuba have a narrow second-half goal difference in competitive matches.
- Both teams have similar second-half scoring averages.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams are unbeaten in the group and a tight match could end level, with Cuba's defence strong but St Kitts scoring in two straight wins. Cuba's strong defence and better overall record make them favourites, especially against a St Kitts side that concedes regularly.
- Cuba have drawn 2 of 12 competitive matches.
- St Kitts have drawn 1 of 9 competitive matches.
- Cuba have won 6 of 12 competitive matches and kept 6 clean sheets.
- They score 1.75 and concede 1.08 goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or CubaEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves are often tight and both teams have modest first-half scoring numbers, making a level half-time score likely. Cuba have the stronger first-half record and should create chances against a St Kitts defence that concedes 1.22 first-half goals per match.
- St Kitts matches average 2.11 first-half goals, while Cuba matches average 1.58.
- Cuba have a first-half goal difference of +0.42 per competitive match.
- Cuba average 1.00 first-half goals for and 0.58 against in competitive matches.
- St Kitts average 1.22 first-half goals against.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or CubaEstimated chance82%

Goals6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
St Kitts are involved in high-scoring games and Cuba's attack should create chances against a defence conceding 2.89 goals per match.
- St Kitts matches average 4.56 total goals in competitive play.
- Cuba matches average 2.83 total goals in competitive play.
- Cuba have scored 5 goals in two group matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Cuba's defence is strong enough to deny St Kitts, while St Kitts may not keep Cuba out at the other end.
- Cuba have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches.
- St Kitts failed to score in 3 of 9 competitive matches.
- Cuba conceded only 1.08 goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Both teams have shown they can score in the first half, so at least one goal before the break is likely.
- St Kitts competitive matches average 2.11 first-half goals.
- Cuba competitive matches average 1.58 first-half goals.
- Both teams scored first-half goals in their recent group wins.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
St Kitts are frequently involved in high-scoring second halves and their defence often concedes after the break.
- St Kitts competitive matches average 2.45 second-half goals.
- Cuba competitive matches average 1.25 second-half goals.
- St Kitts conceded three second-half goals against Belize and two against Indonesia.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba's consistent scoring record makes it probable they will score against St Kitts.
- Cuba have scored in 11 of 12 competitive matches.
- St Kitts have kept only 2 clean sheets in 9 competitive matches.
- Cuba average 1.75 goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCuba to scoreEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
St Kitts have scored regularly in the group and Cuba do concede occasionally, making a Cuba clean sheet less likely.
- St Kitts have scored in 6 of 9 competitive matches.
- Cuba have conceded in 6 of 12 competitive matches.
- St Kitts scored 3 against Grenada and 2 against Bonaire.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSt Kitts and Nevis to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba's defence has been very hard to score against, so St Kitts may struggle to get two goals.
- Cuba concede only 1.08 goals per competitive match.
- St Kitts were shut out in 3 of 9 competitive matches.
- Cuba kept clean sheets in both group matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSt Kitts and Nevis under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba's attack should exploit a St Kitts defence that concedes nearly three goals per match, making two or more goals likely.
- Cuba average 1.75 goals per competitive match.
- St Kitts concede 2.89 goals per competitive match.
- Cuba scored 3 against Grenada and 2 against Bonaire.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCuba over 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba generate plenty of corners and St Kitts concede a fair number, so the total could pass 9.5.
- Cuba average 6.17 corners for and 3.83 against in competitive matches.
- St Kitts average 3.4 corners for and 4.8 against in competitive matches.
- Cuba's last two matches produced 12 corners each.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba's matches are often physical and total cards regularly exceed 3.5, with St Kitts also picking up bookings.
- Cuba competitive matches average 5.93 total cards (yellow and red).
- St Kitts competitive matches average 3.87 total cards.
- Both teams received cards in their recent group matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 2W

L4-0CubavSt. Kitts and NevisNov 18, 2024CON

L2-1St. Kitts and NevisvCubaNov 14, 2024CON

3.5 goals/game avg

Recent Form

St Kitts and Nevis

W3-0GrenadaSep 29CON

W2-1BonaireSep 26CON

W4-2Solomon IslandsMar 30FIF

L0-4IndonesiaMar 27FIF

L2-6BelizeNov 18CON

D0-0Sint MaartenNov 12CON

W2-1Saint MartinOct 5FRI

W5-0Saint MartinOct 4FRI

L2-3GrenadaJun 10WOR

L2-6Trinidad and TobagoJun 6WOR

L1-4Saint MartinMay 25FRI

L0-3St. Vincent / GrenadinesMay 25FRI

W4-2AnguillaMay 24FRI

L1-3St. Vincent / GrenadinesMay 20FRI

L0-4CubaNov 18CON

Cuba

W2-0BonaireSep 28CON

W3-0GrenadaSep 25CON

D1-1Dominican RepublicMar 29CON

D2-2MartiniqueMar 26CON

W2-0MartiniqueNov 16CON

W3-0St. LuciaNov 12CON

L0-2GrenadaOct 11FRI

L0-1St. Vincent / GrenadinesOct 9FRI

L0-7St. Vincent / GrenadinesOct 5FRI

L1-2BermudaJun 10WOR

W1-0Antigua and BarbudaJun 6WOR

L0-4Trinidad and TobagoMar 25CON

L1-2Trinidad and TobagoMar 21CON

W4-0St. Kitts and NevisNov 18CON

L1-2St. Kitts and NevisNov 14CON

Squad & Injuries

St Kitts and Nevis

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Cuba

21 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders5

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

St Kitts and Nevis or Draw

Draw or Cuba

Cuba

Over 2.5

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 8 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

St Kitts and Nevis

Cuba

Squad & Injuries

St Kitts and Nevis

Cuba