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Predictions graded

Grenada0Cuba3

HT 0–1Fri 25 Sept 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges2–167%

PossPossession 36%–64%ShotsShots 10–20On targetOn target 1–9CornersCorners 3–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 15:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Grenada's form swings between four-goal wins and scoreless defeats, and this group opener is being played in St Kitts and Nevis rather than at home.

Cuba are the steadier side across 12 competitive matches but score only 1.14 per away game, so the likeliest read is a game that finds the net without either side dominating. Two quoted prices are worth taking: Over 2.5 goals at 2.15 and a goal before half-time at 1.43. The 2.05 on a level half-time score is not.

Context

Cuba's squad is camped in Basseterre and plays both matches of this window on St Kitts, while Grenada's designated home fixture is also listed at Basseterre's technical centre. Playing away from Grenada removes the crowd and pitch familiarity the host side would normally have, so both teams arrive at a campaign opener in effectively neutral conditions. The neutral-country staging comes from Cuba's own delegation itinerary and a regional fixture listing; the specific venue name for this match sits with a single regional outlet, so it is the most provisional element.
- Cuba's senior squad is in St Kitts and Nevis for the first two matches of its 2026-27 CONCACAF Nations League Group C campaign, on 25 and 28 September.
- Both of those Cuba fixtures, against Grenada on 25 September and Bonaire on 28 September, are set for the technical centre in Basseterre.
- Grenada's own fixture listing for the window has the Cuba match at 5:00 PM local time on 25 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 15:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Grenada's home programme in this competition has been moved off the island: the 2026-27 Nations League home fixtures sit in Trinidad and Tobago after concerns about the Kirani James Athletics Stadium surface, and the October doubleheaders are booked at Port of Spain's Hasely Crawford Stadium. That strips home advantage from Grenada's group schedule and fits with this opener being staged on neutral ground rather than in St George's. The relocation and the October venue are carried by national outlets in Trinidad, while the surface problem is stated without a timeline for the ground's return.
- Grenada's 2026-27 CONCACAF Nations League home fixtures were relocated to Trinidad and Tobago because of the playing surface at the Kirani James Athletics Stadium in Grenada.
- Grenada's two League B, Group C doubleheaders are set for the Hasely Crawford Stadium in Port of Spain on 2 and 5 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 15:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Grenada open the campaign with a muscle injury removing one of their squad for the Cuba match, and early October is the earliest point given for a return. Grenada's 23-man selection is built largely from players coming in from overseas leagues, so the coach is already managing a group that assembles on St Kitts and Nevis for two matches in four days and has less room for a forced change. Cuba carries no listed absences for the same fixture. The absence rests on one provider's availability list rather than on anything from the Grenada camp, which makes the stated return date the softest part of the story.
- Darius Johnson is unavailable for this fixture with a muscle injury, with a possible return in early October 2026.
- No Cuba player is listed as unavailable for this match.
ReportedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 15:57 · Europe/BucharestFotMob match page: Cuba vs Grenada, teams and unavailable playerswww.fotmob.com · 25 Sep 2026
Cuban coverage of Group C frames Grenada as the toughest of the three opponents, pointing to a selection that carries twelve players from clubs abroad as the reason this fixture is treated as the hardest in the window. For this match it means the visitors face a side whose level comes from English and North American league players rather than from domestic form. The squad list itself is detailed and public; the ranking of Grenada as the group's strongest team is one Cuban writer's reading rather than a shared consensus.
- Grenada's Nations League squad for this window numbers 23 players.
- Twelve players in Grenada's list for the Cuba match come from clubs outside the Caribbean, drawn from England, the United States, Jamaica and Ireland.
- Cuban coverage of the group names Grenada as the most difficult of the three opponents in Group C.
ReportedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 15:57 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

First Half WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.05fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 48.8%

−3.8ppshort

Neither side's first-half scoring is heavy, and Cuba have regularly reached the break level.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Neither side's first-half scoring is heavy, and Cuba have regularly reached the break level.
- Grenada's first halves: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded per competitive match
- Cuba's first halves: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded per competitive match
- Cuba were level at half-time in three of their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cuba's second halves tend to be low-scoring and level, which makes a shared half the likeliest single outcome.
- Cuba average 0.75 second-half goals scored and 0.67 conceded per competitive match
- Cuba conceded just two second-half goals across their last six competitive matches
- Grenada's second-half scoring is concentrated in games they already controlled
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Grenada have the recent head-to-head win and score heavily against Caribbean opposition, and both teams are on neutral ground here. Cuba have been the steadier side across a larger competitive sample and arrive with a settled squad chasing the group.
- Grenada competitive record: 3W-3L, 2.17 scored and 2.00 conceded per match
- Cuba away: 2W-2D-3L in seven matches, 1.14 scored and 1.71 conceded per match
- Cuba are 3W-2D-1L in their last six competitive matches, scoring in five
- Cuba have four clean sheets in twelve competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGrenada or CubaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side's first-half scoring is heavy, and Cuba have regularly reached the break level. Cuba have started games better than Grenada, who have conceded a first-half goal in nearly every recent match.
- Grenada's first halves: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded per competitive match
- Cuba's first halves: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded per competitive match
- Cuba scored first-half goals in three of their last six competitive matches
- Cuba's first-half average is 0.83 scored and 0.83 conceded
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or CubaEstimated chance76%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Grenada's matches have been consistently high-scoring and Cuba rarely go through a game without contributing.
- Grenada's six competitive matches averaged 4.17 total goals
- Cuba's twelve competitive matches averaged 3.08 total goals
- Cuba scored in five of their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Grenada's scoring has been all-or-nothing, and Cuba's defence has produced clean sheets at a steady rate.
- Cuba kept three clean sheets in their last six competitive matches
- Grenada failed to score in their last two matches (0-3, 0-4)
- Grenada's competitive matches produced only one both-teams-scoring result in six
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Grenada's goals have come in bursts against the weakest opponents rather than steadily against organised sides.
- Grenada failed to score in three of six competitive matches
- Grenada managed a single goal in one further competitive match (3-2 at St Kitts and Nevis)
- Cuba have three clean sheets in their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonGrenada under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba's scoring output away from home is low enough that holding them under two is the likelier outcome.
- Cuba's away average is 1.14 goals per match across seven matches
- Grenada kept two clean sheets in six competitive matches
- Cuba scored one or none in three of their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostCuba under 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba have scored in almost every recent game, making a Grenada shutout the less likely outcome.
- Cuba scored in five of their last six competitive matches
- Grenada's clean sheets came in 6-0 and 4-0 wins over Bahamas and St Lucia
- Cuba found the net in both March 2026 draws
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCuba to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba's defensive record shows regular concessions, and Grenada can punish weaker back lines.
- Grenada scored in three of their last six competitive matches, twice with four or more
- Cuba concede 1.5 goals per competitive match
- Cuba let in two goals in each of their last two competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostGrenada to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
First-half goals appear in the overwhelming majority of both teams' recent matches.
- Grenada's last six competitive matches produced a first-half goal in five
- All six of Cuba's recent competitive matches had at least one first-half goal
- Grenada concede 1.00 first-half goals per competitive match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba's low corner counts drag the combined expectation well below the line.
- Grenada's tracked matches average 12 total corners (8.75 for, 3.25 against)
- Cuba's tracked matches average about 7.8 total corners
- Cuba's away corner average is 2.33 for and 4.00 against across three matches
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 13.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' tracked shot totals fall comfortably below the line on average.
- Grenada's tracked matches average 28.75 total shots
- Cuba's tracked matches average 24.17 total shots
- Cuba's away shots average is 13 for and 11 against across three matches
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 32.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' on-target output is low, particularly Cuba's away from home.
- Grenada's tracked matches average 13 shots on target in total
- Cuba's tracked matches average 8.3 shots on target in total
- Cuba's away average is 3 shots on target for and 4.33 against across three matches
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 13.5Estimated chance78%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 2W

W2-0GrenadavCubaOct 11, 2025FRI

L0-2GrenadavCubaOct 13, 2018CON

L0-1GrenadavCubaDec 5, 2010CAR

D0-0CubavGrenadaNov 30, 2010CAR

Grenada: 2 clean sheetsCuba: 3 clean sheets1.3 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Grenada

L0-5Rep. Of IrelandMay 16FRI

L0-3KenyaMar 30FIF

L0-4RwandaMar 27FIF

L0-1JamaicaJan 18FRI

W4-1US Virgin IslandsNov 15FRI

W2-0CubaOct 11FRI

W4-1British Virgin IslandsOct 8FRI

W3-2St. Kitts and NevisJun 10WOR

W6-0BahamasJun 4WOR

W2-0AnguillaMay 31FRI

L0-5RussiaMar 19FRI

D1-1St. Vincent / GrenadinesMar 9FRI

D1-1St. Vincent / GrenadinesMar 6FRI

L0-3Saint MartinNov 18CON

W4-0St. LuciaNov 15CON

Cuba

D1-1Dominican RepublicMar 29CON

D2-2MartiniqueMar 26CON

W2-0MartiniqueNov 16CON

W3-0St. LuciaNov 12CON

L0-2GrenadaOct 11FRI

L0-1St. Vincent / GrenadinesOct 9FRI

L0-7St. Vincent / GrenadinesOct 5FRI

L1-2BermudaJun 10WOR

W1-0Antigua and BarbudaJun 6WOR

L0-4Trinidad and TobagoMar 25CON

L1-2Trinidad and TobagoMar 21CON

W4-0St. Kitts and NevisNov 18CON

L1-2St. Kitts and NevisNov 14CON

L1-3Trinidad and TobagoOct 15CON

D2-2Trinidad and TobagoOct 10CON

Squad & Injuries

Grenada

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Cuba

23 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders5

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals5 of 7 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Grenada

Cuba

Squad & Injuries

Grenada

Cuba