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Predictions graded

Bonaire1St Kitts and Nevis2

HT 1–1Sat 26 Sept 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 10–15On targetOn target 4–6CornersCorners 3–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 03:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Bonaire's mild home edge meets a St Kitts side that has lost all three tracked away matches, conceding 14 goals — though Bonaire's own home record is 2W 1D 4L, so the gap is narrow.

Bonaire to win is the likeliest single result, but 1.88 asks more than the form supports. St Kitts level or ahead at half-time at 2.63, St Kitts to lead at half-time at 10 and both teams not to score at 3.6 are the three prices that carry an edge.

Context

St Kitts and Nevis bring the weakest away record in the tracked sample to this fixture.
The sample is only three matches, but the scale of the defeats is the striking part: more than four goals conceded per away game. It suggests St Kitts are unlikely to keep this contest tight, although Bonaire's own home scoring is modest at 0.86 goals a game, so that pressure may not turn into a heavy home scoreline.
- Away split: 3 matches, 18 Nov 2024 – 27 Mar 2026, 0W 0D 3L
- Away goals against 4.67 per game (14 conceded); away goals for 0.67 per game (2 scored)
- In the two away matches with shot data, opponents averaged 23 shots and 12 on target
Bonaire play at home with a record that offers little comfort despite the hosts' tag.
Bonaire's home rate of 0.86 goals a game sits below their overall 1.15 across 13 competitive matches, so playing at home has not lifted their output. With four defeats in seven at home, this is not a fixture where the hosts can be assumed to control the game, even against a side without an away win.
- Home split: 7 competitive matches, 12 Oct 2023 – 30 Mar 2026, 2W 1D 4L
- Home goals for 0.86 per game (6 in 7); home goals against 1.57 per game (11 in 7)
- Home first-half goals for 0.57 per game; second-half goals for 0.29 per game
This is the one recent result that cuts against the away-form picture: a four-goal haul shows St Kitts can score freely when a game opens up. It came at home in the FIFA Series rather than on the road, and their three tracked away matches produced two goals in total, so it stands as a single data point rather than a change of pattern.
- 30 Mar 2026, FIFA Series, at home: St Kitts and Nevis 4-2 Solomon Islands (2-1 at half-time, 2-1 after the break)
- Sample: one match; the four goals are the highest single-match total among the six most recent rows logged for St Kitts

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.88
The read
Bonaire's home advantage and St Kitts's poor away form make Bonaire the most likely winner.
- Bonaire home record: 2W 1D 4L
- St Kitts away record: 0W 0D 3L
- St Kitts away goals against average: 4.67
- Bonaire home goals for average: 0.86
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBonaireEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bonaire score modestly at home in the first half, but St Kitts concede heavily in the first half away.
- Bonaire home first-half goals for average: 0.57
- St Kitts away first-half goals against average: 2.00
- St Kitts away first-half record: 0W 0D 3L
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBonaireEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Kitts concede heavily in the second half away, and Bonaire should capitalize despite modest scoring.
- St Kitts away second-half goals against average: 2.67
- Bonaire home second-half goals for average: 0.29
- St Kitts away second-half goals for average: 0.00
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostBonaireEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Bonaire's home advantage and St Kitts's poor away form make Bonaire the most likely winner. St Kitts have won two matches overall and Bonaire concede at home, giving them a chance.
- Bonaire home record: 2W 1D 4L
- St Kitts away record: 0W 0D 3L
- St Kitts overall record: 2W 2D 5L
- Bonaire home goals against average: 1.57
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBonaire or St Kitts and NevisEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bonaire score modestly at home in the first half, but St Kitts concede heavily in the first half away. First halves in Bonaire's home games are often tight, with few goals separating the teams.
- Bonaire home first-half goals for average: 0.57
- St Kitts away first-half goals against average: 2.00
- Bonaire home first-half draws: common in recent matches
- St Kitts away first-half draws: uncommon
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBonaire or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
St Kitts's away matches have been high-scoring, and their leaky defense should lead to goals.
- St Kitts away matches average 5.33 total goals
- Bonaire home matches average 2.43 total goals
- St Kitts away conceded 14 goals in 3 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score and concede, making a clean sheet for either side unlikely.
- Bonaire both teams scored: 6 of 13
- St Kitts both teams scored: 6 of 9
- St Kitts away scored in 2 of 3 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate few corners themselves, and the combined average is below the line.
- Bonaire home corners average: 2.4
- St Kitts away corners average: 1.5
- Bonaire home opponent corners average: 5.4
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Kitts's away matches see many shots on target, especially from opponents, pushing the total over 8.5.
- St Kitts away shots on target against average: 12.0
- Bonaire home shots on target average: 2.4
- St Kitts away shots on target for average: 4.0
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages fall below the 5.5 line, suggesting a relatively clean match.
- Bonaire home yellow cards average: 1.4
- St Kitts away yellow cards average: 2.5
- Bonaire home red cards: 1 in 7 matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%

Recent Form

Bonaire

L0-2British Virgin IslandsJun 6FRI

L0-3Saint MartinMar 30CON

W3-1St. Vincent / GrenadinesMar 27CON

L1-2GuyanaNov 15CON

L2-3BarbadosNov 12CON

L1-3St. Vincent / GrenadinesNov 17CON

L0-1El SalvadorNov 15CON

W1-0MontserratOct 13CON

L0-1MontserratOct 10CON

L1-2El SalvadorSep 9CON

D1-1St. Vincent / GrenadinesSep 6CON

D1-1El SalvadorMar 20FRI

L0-4Saint MartinNov 21CON

W3-0AnguillaNov 18CON

W2-0AnguillaOct 12CON

St Kitts and Nevis

W4-2Solomon IslandsMar 30FIF

L0-4IndonesiaMar 27FIF

L2-6BelizeNov 18CON

D0-0Sint MaartenNov 12CON

W2-1Saint MartinOct 5FRI

W5-0Saint MartinOct 4FRI

L2-3GrenadaJun 10WOR

L2-6Trinidad and TobagoJun 6WOR

L1-4Saint MartinMay 25FRI

L0-3St. Vincent / GrenadinesMay 25FRI

W4-2AnguillaMay 24FRI

L1-3St. Vincent / GrenadinesMay 20FRI

L0-4CubaNov 18CON

W2-1CubaNov 14CON

D1-1Cayman IslandsOct 15CON

Squad & Injuries

Bonaire

20 available

Attackers7

Midfielders6

Defenders5

Goalkeeper2

St Kitts and Nevis

19 available

Attackers2

Midfielders11

Defenders4

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or St Kitts and Nevis

St Kitts and Nevis

No

Bonaire or St Kitts and Nevis

Over 2.5

Bonaire

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals2 of 2 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Recent Form

Bonaire

St Kitts and Nevis

Squad & Injuries

Bonaire

St Kitts and Nevis