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Predictions graded

Mallorca0Almeria1

HT 0–1Sun 27 Sept 2026, 14:15 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 17–11On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 6–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 08:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Third hosts fourth: Mallorca have won all three home league games without conceding, Almería arrive on three straight league wins, and both are missing regulars.

A narrow, low-scoring Mallorca win is the likeliest outcome. Mallorca at 2.00, both teams not to score at 1.95 and under 2.5 goals at 1.88 offer something; no first-half goals at 2.90 and Mallorca to avoid defeat at 1.25 offer less, while the draw at 3.25 and an Almería win at 3.50 do not.

Context

Slovakia's call-up takes out the centre-back who anchors a Mallorca defence that has conceded only twice in six league games, and the national-team window lists him as missing both this fixture and the trip to Girona. Luis García therefore has to field a rebuilt pairing in front of Arnau Tenas against an Almería side arriving on two straight clean sheets. The limit on reading too much into it is that this is a scheduling absence rather than a loss of form or fitness, so the issue is unfamiliarity in the back line rather than a weaker individual. Mallorca's Son Moix record, three home wins without conceding, is the counterweight.
- Slovakia's call-up rules Valjent out of Matchday 7 against Almería and Matchday 8 at Girona (Onda Cero Mallorca, 17 Sep).
- Listed by Segunda specialists among the Mallorca players missing the Almería and Girona fixtures (La Categoria de Plata, 21 Sep).
- M. Valjent started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 450 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 08:18 · Europe/Bucharest
Sevilla left Mallorca as a favourite after five seasons in which the club climbed from Segunda to Primera twice, and he now works on Almería's staff, so this is a return to the ground he calls his home. Both clubs dropped out of La Liga for 2026-27, which is why a fixture he said he expected to be played in the top flight is being staged in the second tier at Son Moix. His role sits off the pitch — team manager rather than coach — so nothing about Almería's selection or shape turns on his presence. The value is the human thread a returning former captain gives a match between two relegated sides.
- Sevilla spent five seasons at Mallorca, with a promotion to Segunda and two to Primera, and now works as Almería's team manager (Diario de Almería, 23 Sep).
- He said he expected this Mallorca-Almería meeting to be a Primera fixture (Deportescopebaleares, 23 Sep).
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 08:18 · Europe/Bucharest
Arribas is the kind of creator García Pimienta uses to prise open defences that sit deep, and Mallorca's back line has conceded just twice in six league games. His return is framed as the biggest selection news in the visiting camp before a fixture that Almería's own coverage calls one of the hardest of their season. The limitation is that this rests on a local newspaper's read on his condition rather than a club statement, and Almería won 2-0 at the weekend while absorbing absences. His availability nonetheless removes one attacking question from the visitors' team sheet.
- Reported at 100% and in line to start against Mallorca, described as the big Almería news before the trip (La Voz Deportes, 21 Sep).
- Sergio Arribas started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- S. Džodić started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Sergio Arribas did not start.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 08:18 · Europe/Bucharest
With Stefan Džodić away with Serbia for the whole window, Mikel Vesga has said publicly that the opening in Almería's midfield is one he has to take. The pair compete for the same role, so Džodić's absence is the clearest route to a start for a player on the edge of García Pimienta's XI. Vesga's words are his own framing rather than a confirmed selection, and the coach could reshape the midfield instead of swapping like for like. Son Moix is the first of two games Džodić misses, so the balance of the visiting midfield is a live question for this fixture.
- Quoted saying he has to take advantage of the absence of Stefan Džodić (La Voz Deportes, 23 Sep).
- Džodić is away with Serbia and misses both the Mallorca away game and the following home fixture (Javier Góngora, 18 Sep).
- Mikel Vesga started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 08:18 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Mallorca have won all three home league games without conceding while Almería have lost two of three away, so the home side holds the stronger case.
- Mallorca home league record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 7 goals for, 0 against
- Almería away league record: 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses, 2 goals for, 2 against
- Mallorca 7 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches; 4 in 5 home matches
- Mallorca missing centre-back M. Valjent (Slovakia duty) who started 5 of the last 5 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMallorcaEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's recent matches have often reached the break level, and Almería rarely score before the interval away.
- Mallorca level at half-time in 4 of their last 6 league games
- Almería 0 first-half goals in 5 away matches
- Mallorca average 0.55 first-half goals overall, Almería 0.9
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mallorca have been stronger after the break at home, while Almería's away second-half output is small.
- Mallorca home split: 1.2 second-half goals for, 0.0 against
- Almería away split: 0.6 second-half goals for, 0.2 against
- Mallorca scored all their goals after the break in their last two away league games
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostMallorcaEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Mallorca have won all three home league games without conceding while Almería have lost two of three away, so the home side holds the stronger case. Two compact sides with low scoring totals give the draw a realistic share, and Almería have already drawn twice in their away fixtures.
- Mallorca home league record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 7 goals for, 0 against
- Almería away league record: 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses, 2 goals for, 2 against
- Mallorca have drawn 1 of 6 league games; Almería have drawn 0 of 6
- Mallorca's competitive matches average 2.0 total goals
BetBugs · Double ChancelostMallorca or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mallorca do most of their home scoring early while Almería have not scored a first-half goal away from home. Mallorca's recent matches have often reached the break level, and Almería rarely score before the interval away.
- Mallorca average 1.0 first-half goal at home, 0.2 conceded
- Almería away split: 0.0 first-half goals across 5 matches
- Mallorca level at half-time in 4 of their last 6 league games
- Almería 0 first-half goals in 5 away matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostMallorca or DrawEstimated chance85%

Goals7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Mallorca's games are consistently low-scoring and Almería's away fixtures have been tight, making a small total the likelier outcome.
- Mallorca competitive matches average 1.27 goals for and 0.73 against
- Almería away split: 0.6 goals for and 0.6 against per match
- Five of Almería's last six league games had two goals or fewer
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Mallorca's home record is built on shutouts and Almería's away attack has produced very little.
- Mallorca clean sheets: 7 in 11 competitive matches, 4 of 5 at home
- Almería scored once across their last three away league games
- Mallorca conceded 2 goals in 6 league games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's overall scoring is modest and Almería travel with a tight defensive record, so one goal or none is slightly more likely than two.
- Mallorca average 1.27 goals across 11 competitive matches
- Almería away split: 0.6 goals conceded per match
- Mallorca scored once or none in 5 of 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonMallorca under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Almería's away output is thin against a Mallorca side that has not conceded at home in the league.
- Almería away split: 0.6 goals for per match
- Mallorca home split: 0.2 goals against per match
- Mallorca kept clean sheets in 4 of 5 home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAlmeria under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mallorca have been shutout-heavy at home and Almería's away scoring is limited.
- Mallorca 4 clean sheets in 5 home matches; 0 goals conceded in 3 home league games
- Mallorca 7 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
- Almería away split: 0.6 goals per match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAlmeria not to scoreEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mallorca may win without keeping a clean sheet, or fail to win at all, so this covers the majority of possibilities.
- Mallorca won 6 of 11 competitive matches, 4 of them with a clean sheet
- Almería have lost 2 of 3 away league games, conceding 2 goals
- Mallorca drew 0-0 away at Eldense
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's home first-half scoring alone makes at least one goal before the break more likely than not.
- Mallorca home split: 1.0 first-half goals for, 0.2 against
- Almería overall: 0.9 first-half goals for, 0.3 against
- Almería 0 first-half goals in 5 away matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent second-half output of both teams is low enough to favour the smaller totals.
- Mallorca 5 second-half goals in their last 6 league matches
- Almería 2 second-half goals in their last 6 league matches
- Mallorca home split: 0.0 second-half goals conceded
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both venue splits sit just below nine corners, giving the under a narrow edge.
- Mallorca home split totals 8.2 corners per match
- Almería away split totals 8.4 corners per match
- Almería's away split: 2.4 corners won per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams collect a moderate number of cards and Almería have shown red-card risk, pushing the total toward the higher side.
- Mallorca average 2.4 yellow cards plus 1.8 for opponents per competitive match
- Almería away split: 2.0 yellow cards for, 3.0 for opponents
- Almería have had a red card in 2 of their last 6 league matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance54%

Prediction history

Mallorca: 3/5 recent cards projections matched

3 of 5 comparable cards projections involving Mallorca matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Mallorca5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 May·La Liga

Mallorca3-0

Real Oviedo

BetBugsOver 4.5 cards·60%→3 total cards

Missed

23 May 2026

La Liga

Mallorca3-0

Real Oviedo

Over 4.5 cards

60%probability

3 total cards

Missed

17 May·La Liga

Levante2-0

Mallorca

BetBugsOver 4.5 cards·60%→5 total cards

Matched

17 May 2026

La Liga

Levante2-0

Mallorca

Over 4.5 cards

60%probability

5 total cards

Matched

13 May·La Liga

Getafe3-1

Mallorca

BetBugsOver 4.5 cards·80%→7 total cards

Matched

13 May 2026

La Liga

Getafe3-1

Mallorca

Over 4.5 cards

80%probability

7 total cards

Matched

10 May·La Liga

Mallorca1-1

Villarreal

BetBugsOver 4.5 cards·60%→2 total cards

Missed

10 May 2026

La Liga

Mallorca1-1

Villarreal

Over 4.5 cards

60%probability

2 total cards

Missed

1 May·La Liga

Girona0-1

Mallorca

BetBugsOver 4.5 cards·70%→5 total cards

Matched

1 May 2026

La Liga

Girona0-1

Mallorca

Over 4.5 cards

70%probability

5 total cards

Matched

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D2-2MallorcavAlmeriaMay 19, 2024LL

D0-0AlmeriavMallorcaDec 17, 2023LL

L3-0AlmeriavMallorcaMay 20, 2023LL

W1-0MallorcavAlmeriaSep 17, 2022LL

W2-0MallorcavAlmeriaFeb 21, 2021SEG

Mallorca: 3 clean sheetsAlmeria: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Segunda División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Mallorca Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)	6	4	1	1	8-2	13	WWDWL
4	Almeria Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)	6	4	0	2	10-4	12	WWWLL