Boyaca Chico3Deportivo Pasto0

HT 0–0Fri 25 Sept 2026, 23:10 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 7–14On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 0–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 00:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Chicó need home points to climb out of the relegation places, while Pasto arrive with two straight 1-0 wins and a reported six-player absentee list.

Chicó are the likeliest winners but a tight, low-scoring night in Tunja is the better read, and 2.50 on a home win is no bargain. At least one goal before half-time at 1.48 and over 2.5 goals at 2.40 are the two prices with a small edge.

Context

Deportivo Pasto's pre-match briefing on 22 September produced a squad list missing six players for Friday's game at La Independencia: goalkeeper Ederson Cabezas, defenders Santiago Jiménez and Nicolás Gil, forwards Andrés Ibargüen and Jorge Obregón, plus Patrick Preciado. Those absences remove four outfield players, so René Rosero must rebuild both his back line and his attacking options for the trip to Tunja. Pasto have won their last two league matches 1-0, so losing defensive continuity carries more weight than usual for a side that scores sparingly. The limitation is that the reasons for each absence and the final XI were not confirmed in a club statement, leaving the precise reshuffle uncertain.
- Germán Andrés Paz, 22 September 2026: Deportivo Pasto 'will not have' Ederson Cabezas, Santiago Jiménez, Nicolás Gil, Andrés Ibargüen, Jorge Obregón and Patrick Preciado against Boyacá Chicó.
- The same post attributes the list to head coach René Rosero's pre-match briefing and describes the six as 'left out for Friday in Tunja'.
- Deportivo Pasto's official account confirmed the fixture for Friday 25 September at La Independencia in Tunja.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 00:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Deportivo Pasto were bottom of the 2026-II table when Jonathan Risueño was removed on 24 August, and the club confirmed club man René Rosero in the post five days later, with former striker Wilson Morelo staying on as assistant. Rosero has since taken two wins from three league games: 1-0 away to then-leaders América de Cali on matchday 10 and 1-0 at home to Once Caldas on matchday 11. That is why this visit to Tunja carries more promise than Pasto's opening weeks suggested. The counterpoint is that both wins were single-goal and one came against an América side that lost its goalkeeper to a red card before half-time, so the improvement so far looks like a tighter defence rather than a transformed attack.
- Deportivo Pasto announced on 24 August 2026 that Jonathan Risueño had left the club and named René Rosero as interim head coach.
- The club confirmed Rosero in the post on 29 August 2026, with former striker Wilson Morelo continuing as assistant coach.
- Pasto were bottom of the Liga BetPlay 2026-II table before the matchday 10 trip to América de Cali.
- Under Rosero, Pasto won 1-0 at América de Cali on matchday 10 and 1-0 at home to Once Caldas on matchday 11.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 00:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Colombia's two relegations are decided by the promedios table rather than the short-tournament standings, and Chicó are inside the drop zone after losing 1-2 at home to Alianza Valledupar in their rescheduled matchday 3 game and 0-3 at Millonarios on matchday 11. The same weekend brought heavy defeats for Cúcuta and Alianza, so the bottom of that table shifted again and the fight stayed tight. La Independencia in Tunja is where Chicó have taken almost all of their points this season, which makes a home fixture against another low-ranked side the type they need to convert. The limitation is that the promedios calculation spans several seasons, so one result moves the picture only slightly.
- El Tiempo, 16 September 2026: Alianza Valledupar's win 'sank Boyacá Chicó further into the relegation zone'.
- Win Sports, 20 September 2026: the promedios table moved again 'after the thrashings of Cúcuta, Boyacá Chicó and Alianza'.
- El Meridiano, 20 September 2026: Millonarios' 3-0 win over Chicó benefited Jaguares 'in their fight against a direct relegation rival'.
- Boyacá Chicó coach Jhon Jaime Gómez said in late August 2026 the club is 'fighting and working' so as not to depend on the survival fight.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 00:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Chicó are unbeaten in the last three meetings staged at La Independencia in Tunja, a 1-0 win in September 2024 followed by 0-0 and 2-2 draws, while Pasto have won the three corresponding fixtures in their own stadium, most recently 2-0 in the 2026 Apertura. Across the last six meetings the home side has avoided defeat every time, and only two of those games produced more than two goals. The run gives the fixture a recognisable shape: Pasto's recent wins over Chicó have come at home rather than in Tunja. It is historical context rather than a forecast, since both squads and Pasto's coaching staff have changed since the earliest of those games.
- Recent meetings: Pasto 2-0 Chicó (Apertura 2026), Pasto 2-0 (September 2025), Chicó 2-2 Pasto (July 2025), Chicó 0-0 Pasto (March 2025), Pasto 3-0 (February 2025), Chicó 1-0 Pasto (September 2024).
- The home team has not lost any of those six matches, and only two produced more than two goals.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 00:07 · Europe/BucharestAPI-Football: Boyacá Chicó vs Deportivo Pasto head-to-head recordv3.football.api-sports.io · 21 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.13fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 88.5%

−10.5ppshort

Chicó rarely concede early at home and Pasto's first-half output is limited.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Boyaca Chico or Draw

1.40fair 1.41

BetBugs 71% · Market 71.4%

−0.4ppshort

Chicó's home form and defence are much stronger than their overall record, while Pasto have managed few goals. Neither side scores freely and the recent meetings have been tight, so a shared result is a real possibility.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.67fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 59.9%

−2.9ppshort

Chicó's home defence plus Pasto's thin scoring make one side failing to score the likelier outcome.

First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

1.91fair 2.33

BetBugs 43% · Market 52.4%

−9.4ppshort

Neither side has dominated the opening period, making a level half-time score the most likely single result.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Boyaca Chico

2.50fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 40%

0.0ppshort

Chicó's home form and defence are much stronger than their overall record, while Pasto have managed few goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Chicó's home form and defence are much stronger than their overall record, while Pasto have managed few goals.
- Chicó at home in the tracked window: 4W-1D-2L, 1.71 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game
- League home record: 9 games, 5W-1D-3L, 13 goals scored and 5 conceded
- Pasto have scored 9 goals in 15 tracked matches (0.87 per game)
- Chicó are unbeaten in the last three home meetings with Pasto (1-0, 0-0, 2-2)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBoyaca ChicoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.91
The read
Neither side has dominated the opening period, making a level half-time score the most likely single result.
- Pasto's last six first halves brought three draws and three deficits
- Chicó's last six first halves included two goalless openings
- Chicó score 0.86 and concede 0.43 first-half goals per home game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves in both teams' recent matches have been low-scoring and often level.
- Five second-half goals in Chicó's last six matches
- Six second-half goals in Pasto's last six matches
- Pasto's away second halves average 0.29 scored and 0.29 conceded
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Chicó's home form and defence are much stronger than their overall record, while Pasto have managed few goals. Neither side scores freely and the recent meetings have been tight, so a shared result is a real possibility.
- Chicó at home in the tracked window: 4W-1D-2L, 1.71 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game
- League home record: 9 games, 5W-1D-3L, 13 goals scored and 5 conceded
- Only two of the last six meetings produced more than two goals
- Pasto have drawn three of seven away matches in the tracked window
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBoyaca Chico or DrawEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chicó start home games well and Pasto have been level or behind at the break recently. Neither side has dominated the opening period, making a level half-time score the most likely single result.
- Chicó average 0.86 first-half goals at home and concede 0.43
- Pasto have not led at half-time in any of their last six matches
- Pasto's last six first halves brought three draws and three deficits
- Chicó's last six first halves included two goalless openings
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBoyaca Chico or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring rates and the head-to-head record point to a low total.
- Chicó home games: 1.71 scored and 0.57 conceded per game
- Pasto away games: 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded per game
- Four of the last six meetings had two goals or fewer
- Chicó's overall window: 1.07 scored and 1.67 conceded per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Chicó's home defence plus Pasto's thin scoring make one side failing to score the likelier outcome.
- Both teams scored in only 4 of Chicó's 15 tracked matches
- Pasto average 0.87 goals scored across 15 matches
- Chicó kept four clean sheets in seven home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pasto are scoring in every recent game, even if usually only once.
- Pasto scored in all six of their most recent matches
- Pasto's away window shows 1.29 goals scored per game
- Chicó conceded in three of their last four home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDeportivo Pasto to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Both teams' recent first halves have regularly produced at least one goal.
- Chicó's home first halves average 0.86 scored and 0.43 conceded
- Pasto's away first halves average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded
- Ten first-half goals were scored across Chicó's last six matches
- Ten first-half goals were scored across Pasto's last six matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Chicó rarely concede early at home and Pasto's first-half output is limited.
- Chicó concede only 0.43 first-half goals per home game
- Pasto's first-half scoring average is 0.6 per game
- Pasto failed to score in the first half in three of their last six
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in both teams' recent matches have mostly produced one goal or none.
- Second-half totals in Chicó's last six matches: 2,0,1,0,2,0
- Second-half totals in Pasto's last six matches: 1,1,3,1,0,0
- Pasto score 0.29 second-half goals per away game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance72%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined home and away corner averages of both teams fall short of eleven.
- Chicó home total corners per game: 9.4
- Pasto away total corners per game: 9.2
- Pasto's away matches average only 3.8 corners of their own
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' recent matches have regularly produced seven or more shots on target.
- Chicó home matches: 4.2 shots on target for and 3.6 against
- Pasto away matches: 3.5 for and 4.7 against
- Eight of the last eleven matches involving these teams had seven or more shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 6.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pasto's matches are card-heavy and Chicó pick up a moderate number at home.
- Pasto's away matches average 4.2 yellow cards for and 2.3 against
- Pasto's recent totals included seven, eight and sixteen cards in three of five matches
- Chicó's home matches average 2.2 yellow cards for and 1.8 against
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 5.5Estimated chance55%