Primera AFull time

Predictions graded

Deportivo Pasto1Deportivo Pereira2

HT 1–2Mon 31 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges3–633%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 25–8On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 8–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 17:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Pereira's wage strike and terrible away form make Pasto the likely winner, but odds are too short for value.

The only clear edge is backing a first-half draw at 2.20. Expect a low-scoring game, but avoid most other markets due to overpricing and uncertainty.

Context

Deportivo Pasto is currently last in the Clausura group with zero points from five matches.
Pasto has lost all five Clausura matches, including three at home. They scored only three goals in those games and conceded ten. This poor run suggests they are struggling to create chances and defend effectively. Pereira may face a home side low on confidence, but Pasto's overall Apertura record shows they can be stronger at home, so the recent slump may not fully reflect their usual level.
- Lost 0-1 at home to Llaneros on 2026-08-23.
- Lost 0-2 at home to Deportivo Cali on 2026-08-09.
- Lost 0-2 away to Millonarios on 2026-08-05.
- Scored only 3 goals in 5 Clausura matches.
Deportivo Pereira's professional squad has suspended activities over unpaid wages, leaving their participation in this away match unresolved.
The stoppage means Pereira's training, travelling squad, and whether the professional team plays are all uncertain. If the dispute is not settled, Pasto could face a weakened or absent opponent, which would significantly alter the match conditions. The linked analysis already leans toward Pasto, but this unresolved situation adds further uncertainty to Pereira's preparation.
- Caracol reported on 25 August that Pereira’s players had entered a stoppage over unpaid July wages and the first half of August.
- The report said Pereira’s 31 August away match against Pasto was in doubt pending a solution.
To watchSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 16:58 · Europe/BucharestCaracol Radio: Pereira squad stoppage and fixture uncertaintycaracol.com.co · 26 Aug 2026
Deportivo Pereira is 20th in the Apertura table and 16th in the Clausura group.
Pereira has played ten away league matches this season and has not won any, drawing three and losing seven. They scored only six goals away and conceded nineteen. This away weakness is a clear pattern, but their recent away draws against Alianza Valledupar and Fortaleza FC show they can avoid defeat. Pasto's own poor form may give Pereira a chance to break that streak.
- Away record in Apertura: 0 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses.
- Away record in Clausura: 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
- Scored 6 goals and conceded 19 in 10 away matches.
The teams have met five times in Primera A since 2024.
Pasto won 4-0 at home on 2025-10-28 and 2-0 at home on 2024-07-29. Those results show Pasto can dominate Pereira at home. However, the most recent meeting in February 2026 ended 2-2 at Pereira, so Pereira has improved in this matchup. Pasto's current losing streak may reduce the value of those older home wins.
- Pasto 4-0 Pereira on 2025-10-28.
- Pasto 2-0 Pereira on 2024-07-29.
- Most recent meeting: Pereira 2-2 Pasto on 2026-02-21.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and Pereira's poor away form give Pasto a clear edge, reinforced by recent H2H dominance at this venue.
- Pasto home record: 6W-2D-2L, 14 goals for, 8 against in 10 home matches
- Pereira away record: 0W-3D-7L, 6 goals for, 19 against in 10 away matches
- Pasto won last home H2H 4-0 and 2-0 in previous home meeting
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDeportivo PastoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pereira's winless away record makes a home win or draw highly likely.
- Pereira away record: 0 wins in 10 away matches
- Pasto home record: 6 wins, 2 draws in 10 home matches
- Pereira have lost 7 of 10 away matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDeportivo Pasto or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into half-time level, with Pereira especially prone to draws.
- Pasto leading at half-time in 27% of matches, trailing 27%
- Pereira leading at half-time in 13%, trailing 40%
- Pereira have drawn first half in 7 of last 10 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Pasto win is a plausible pattern given Pereira's away struggles.
- Pasto have won 6 home matches, often after a tight first half
- Pereira have drawn first half in many away games
- Pasto's home second-half performance is stronger
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Deportivo PastoEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring rates, especially Pereira away, suggesting a low-scoring game.
- Pasto average 1.0 goals for, 1.6 against overall; home average 1.4 for, 0.8 against
- Pereira average 0.6 goals for, 0.9 against overall; away average 0.6 for, 1.9 against
- Pereira's last 5 away matches: 0,0,0,1,0 goals scored
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pereira's away scoring struggles make it likely at least one team fails to score.
- Pereira failed to score in 7 of 10 away matches
- Pasto kept clean sheets in 4 of 10 home matches
- Pereira average only 0.6 goals per game overall
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are slow starters, especially Pereira, making a low-scoring first half likely.
- Pasto first half goals: 0.7 per game; conceded 0.6
- Pereira first half goals: 0.1 per game; conceded 0.5
- Pereira have scored only 1 first-half goal in last 15 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low overall scoring rates suggest the second half will also be tight.
- Pasto average 1.0 goals per game overall, with many coming in second half
- Pereira average 0.6 goals per game overall
- Combined average second-half goals under 1.5 based on recent form
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Pereira's away scoring woes give Pasto a reasonable chance of a clean sheet.
- Pasto kept clean sheets in 4 of 10 home matches
- Pereira failed to score in 7 of 10 away matches
- Pereira average 0.6 goals per away game
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDeportivo Pereira not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pasto's home scoring record makes a Pereira clean sheet unlikely.
- Pasto scored in 8 of 10 home matches
- Pereira kept only 1 clean sheet in 10 away matches
- Pasto average 1.4 goals per home game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDeportivo Pasto to scoreEstimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, suggesting a total under 10 corners.
- Pasto average 4.5 corners per game, concede 4.5
- Pereira average 3.0 corners per game, concede 6.0
- Combined average corners around 9.0
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to accumulate cards, making over 4.5 cards possible.
- Pasto average 3.2 yellow cards per game, Pereira 2.5
- Pasto have received 4+ yellows in 5 of last 10 matches
- Pereira have received 4+ yellows in 3 of last 10 matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 65% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

D2-2Deportivo PereiravDeportivo PastoFeb 21, 2026PRI

W4-0Deportivo PastovDeportivo PereiraOct 28, 2025PRI

L1-0Deportivo PereiravDeportivo PastoMay 14, 2025PRI

W2-0Deportivo PastovDeportivo PereiraJul 29, 2024PRI

W0-1Deportivo PereiravDeportivo PastoJan 31, 2024PRI

Deportivo Pasto: 3 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Deportivo Pasto Post season qualification	19	10	4	5	29-25	34	LLLLL
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	15-32	10	DDLLW

24pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Deportivo Pasto

L0-1LlanerosAug 23PRI

L0-2Deportivo CaliAug 9PRI

L0-2MillonariosAug 5PRI

L1-2Águilas DoradasAug 1PRI

W3-0Bogota FCJul 29COP

L2-3Independiente MedellinJul 25PRI

L0-1Bogota FCJul 22COP

L0-2Deportes TolimaMay 13PRI

L0-1Deportes TolimaMay 9PRI

L3-4JuniorMay 3PRI

L1-2Santa FeApr 23PRI

W3-2JaguaresApr 17PRI

W1-0Deportes TolimaApr 11PRI

D0-0Alianza ValleduparApr 1PRI

L1-2Atletico NacionalMar 29PRI

Deportivo Pereira

D0-0Alianza ValleduparAug 22PRI

D0-0Fortaleza FCAug 1PRI

L0-1LlanerosJul 24PRI

W1-0JaguaresMay 26COP

D1-1Águilas DoradasMay 21COP

W1-0Real CundinamarcaMay 17COP

D1-1Ind. YumboMay 7COP

L0-1America de CaliMay 3PRI

W1-0Atletico NacionalApr 25PRI

L0-2Deportes TolimaApr 18PRI

D0-0Once CaldasApr 10PRI

L2-3Alianza ValleduparApr 6PRI

L0-1ChicoApr 2PRI

L0-1Deportivo CaliMar 29PRI

D2-2CucutaMar 24PRI

Squad & Injuries

Deportivo Pasto

28 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Deportivo Pereira

33 available

Attackers9

Midfielders9

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Deportivo Pasto1Deportivo Pereira2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

No

Under 9.5

Deportivo Pasto

Deportivo Pasto or Draw

Under 1.5

Under 1.5

Deportivo Pasto to score

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Deportivo Pasto

Under 3.5

Over 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Deportivo Pasto

Deportivo Pereira

Squad & Injuries

Deportivo Pasto

Deportivo Pereira