Primera AFull time

Predictions graded

Boyaca Chico2Once Caldas0

HT 2–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 28%–72%ShotsShots 3–13On targetOn target 2–6CornersCorners 4–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 18:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Once Caldas' away form and H2H record suggest they are the better side, but a short turnaround and Boyaca Chico's solid home defense make a draw or narrow away win likely.

The market overprices Once Caldas (1.95 implies 51% vs our 45%) and the double chance (1.25 implies 80% vs our 70%), so avoid those bets. The under 2.5 goals at 1.67 is fairly priced with no edge.

Context

Boyaca Chico are 18th in the Apertura table with 17 points from 19 matches.
Their away record is terrible: 0 wins, 1 draw, 9 losses, with only 2 goals scored and 27 conceded. However, at home they have 5 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, scoring 13 and conceding only 5. This match is at home, so their home form could help them against Once Caldas.
- Away record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 9 losses, 2 goals for, 27 goals against.
- Home record: 5 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 13 goals for, 5 goals against.
Once Caldas are 5th in the Apertura table with 33 points from 19 matches.
Their recent league form is DDLDW: draws against Junior, Jaguares, and Santa Fe, a loss to America de Cali, and a win over Cucuta. They have been consistent and hard to beat, which could pose a challenge for Boyaca Chico.
- Last five league matches: DDLDW (draw vs Junior, draw vs Jaguares, loss vs America de Cali, draw vs Santa Fe, win vs Cucuta).
The teams have met five times since January 2024.
Once Caldas won 3-0 at home in February 2026 and 5-2 at home in September 2025. Boyaca Chico's only win in this period was a 1-0 away victory in July 2024. This recent head-to-head record favors Once Caldas.
- 2026-02-28: Once Caldas 3-0 Chico
- 2025-09-26: Once Caldas 5-2 Chico
- 2024-07-16: Chico 0-1 Once Caldas
Boyaca Chico are 18th in the Apertura table.
They lost 0-1 to Jaguares, 0-2 to Santa Fe, and 0-7 to America de Cali in their last three league games. This poor run of form could affect their confidence and performance against Once Caldas.
- 2026-08-21: Jaguares 1-0 Chico
- 2026-08-08: Santa Fe 2-0 Chico
- 2026-08-02: America de Cali 7-0 Chico

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Once Caldas

1.95fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 51.3%

0.0ppshort

Once Caldas' superior away form and dominant H2H record give them the edge, but Boyaca Chico's solid home defense keeps the probability moderate.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Once Caldas

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Once Caldas rarely lose away and have a strong H2H record, making the double chance a solid option.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.00fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high draw rates at half-time, and H2H history shows frequent level scores at the break.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.35fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half goal averages and a cautious H2H pattern.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Once Caldas' superior away form and dominant H2H record give them the edge, but Boyaca Chico's solid home defense keeps the probability moderate.
- Once Caldas away record: 2W-6D-1L in 9 away matches, 11 goals scored, 9 conceded
- Boyaca Chico home record: 5W-1D-3L in 9 home matches, 13 goals scored, 5 conceded
- H2H last 5: Once Caldas won 3, drew 1, lost 1; aggregate goals 11-3
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOnce CaldasEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Once Caldas rarely lose away and have a strong H2H record, making the double chance a solid option.
- Once Caldas away record: 2W-6D-1L, only 1 loss in 9 away matches
- Boyaca Chico home record: 5W-1D-3L, 3 losses in 9 home matches
- H2H last 5: Once Caldas unbeaten in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Once CaldasEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates at half-time, and H2H history shows frequent level scores at the break.
- Boyaca Chico: 20% leading at half-time, 33% trailing, 47% drawing in last 15
- Once Caldas: 33% leading at half-time, 13% trailing, 54% drawing in last 15
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time and full-time is plausible given Once Caldas' away draw tendency, but overall draw frequency is low.
- Boyaca Chico home: 1 draw in 9 home matches
- Once Caldas away: 6 draws in 9 away matches
- H2H last 5: 1 draw in 5 meetings
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits point to low-scoring matches, and recent H2H supports a tight game.
- Boyaca Chico home matches average 2.0 total goals (13 scored, 5 conceded in 9)
- Once Caldas away matches average 2.2 total goals (11 scored, 9 conceded in 9)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Boyaca Chico's strong home defense and Once Caldas' moderate away scoring suggest at least one team may not score.
- Boyaca Chico home: 5 clean sheets in 9 home matches
- Once Caldas away: 3 clean sheets in 9 away matches
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had at least one team fail to score
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half goal averages and a cautious H2H pattern.
- Boyaca Chico average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded in last 15
- Once Caldas average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded in last 15
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had 0 or 1 first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates are modest for both sides, and recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring after the break.
- Boyaca Chico average 0.6 second-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded in last 15
- Once Caldas average 0.9 second-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded in last 15
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had under 1.5 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average just under 5 corners each, suggesting a total below 9.5 is slightly more likely.
- Boyaca Chico average 4.9 corners per match in last 15
- Once Caldas average 4.8 corners per match in last 15
- Combined average corners: 9.7, but recent H2H data unavailable
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 2 yellow cards each, making a total over 4.5 cards likely.
- Boyaca Chico average 2.3 yellow cards per match in last 15
- Once Caldas average 2.7 yellow cards per match in last 15
- Combined average yellow cards: 5.0
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 51% exceeds our 45% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read and offers no value.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L3-0Once CaldasvChicoFeb 28, 2026PRI

L5-2Once CaldasvChicoSep 26, 2025PRI

D0-0ChicovOnce CaldasApr 13, 2025PRI

W0-1ChicovOnce CaldasJul 16, 2024PRI

L2-1Once CaldasvChicoJan 20, 2024PRI

Boyaca Chico: 2 clean sheetsOnce Caldas: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	Boyaca Chico	19	5	2	12	15-32	17	DDLLL
5	Once Caldas Post season qualification	19	8	9	2	31-22	33	DDLDW

16pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Boyaca Chico

D2-2Águilas DoradasAug 30PRI

D0-0Fortaleza FCAug 26PRI

L0-1JaguaresAug 21PRI

L0-2Santa FeAug 8PRI

L0-7America de CaliAug 2PRI

L0-1LlanerosMay 27COP

D2-2MillonariosMay 23COP

W4-0Depor FCMay 16COP

D0-0PatriotasMay 7COP

W3-0LlanerosMay 2PRI

L0-4Internacional de BogotaApr 27PRI

L0-2Independiente MedellinApr 22PRI

W1-0Deportivo CaliApr 17PRI

L0-5BucaramangaApr 12PRI

W1-0Deportivo PereiraApr 2PRI

Once Caldas

D1-1JuniorAug 24PRI

D1-1JaguaresAug 9PRI

L0-1America de CaliAug 6PRI

D2-2Santa FeAug 3PRI

W3-0EnvigadoJul 30COP

W5-1CucutaJul 27PRI

W3-0EnvigadoJul 22COP

D2-2JuniorMay 14PRI

L0-1JuniorMay 10PRI

W1-0Atletico NacionalMay 1PRI

D2-2Águilas DoradasApr 26PRI

W2-1Internacional de BogotaApr 20PRI

D0-0Deportivo PereiraApr 10PRI

D1-1Independiente MedellinApr 3PRI

D1-1LlanerosMar 30PRI

Squad & Injuries

Boyaca Chico

35 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Once Caldas

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Once Caldas

Draw or Once Caldas

Draw

Under 1.5

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

@ 1.35

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Boyaca Chico

Once Caldas

Squad & Injuries

Boyaca Chico

Once Caldas