Primera AFull time

Predictions graded

Independiente Santa Fe2Boyaca Chico0

HT 0–0Sat 8 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–375%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 8–5On targetOn target 3–1CornersCorners 2–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Aug 2026, 23:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Santa Fe’s dominant home record and Chicó’s historically poor away form make a low-scoring home win the most probable outcome.

The best betting value lies in First Half Goals Under 1.5 (+4pts edge) and Half-Time/Full-Time Santa Fe/Santa Fe (+3pts edge), while the straight win and Both Teams to Score – No markets offer minimal or negative value.

Context

Away record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 9 losses.
- 2 goals scored, 27 conceded in 10 away matches.
- Failed to score in 8 of 10 away matches.
Home H2H record: 14 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses.
- Last three meetings: 1-0, 0-0, 0-0.
- Chicó have not scored in the last three H2H matches.
Chicó away first-half goals: 0 in 10 matches.
- Santa Fe home first-half goals conceded: 0.1 per game.
- Santa Fe have led at half-time in 40% of matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Santa Fe's strong home form and Chico's abysmal away record (2 goals scored, 27 conceded) make a home win highly likely, reinforced by H2H dominance.
- Santa Fe home record: 4W-3D-2L, 17GF-10GA in 9 home matches (Apertura).
- Boyaca Chico away record: 0W-1D-9L, 2GF-27GA in 10 away matches (Apertura).
- H2H last 5: Santa Fe 2W-2D-1L, with 3 clean sheets in last 3 meetings.
- Santa Fe overall form: 7W-8D-4L, +7 GD; Chico: 5W-2D-12L, -17 GD.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIndependiente Santa FeEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chico's inability to win away combined with Santa Fe's solid home record makes a home win or draw extremely probable.
- Santa Fe home loss rate: only 2 losses in 9 home games (22%).
- Chico away win rate: 0 wins in 10 away games (0%).
- H2H at Santa Fe: 14W-4D-2L in 20 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonIndependiente Santa Fe or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Santa Fe has a moderate tendency to lead at halftime at home, while Chico often trails away, but the low first-half scoring rates cap confidence.
- Santa Fe led at halftime in 40% of matches; Chico trailed at halftime in 40%.
- Santa Fe home first half record: led in 4 of 9 home matches.
- Chico away first half record: trailed in 6 of 10 away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostIndependiente Santa FeEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Santa Fe's superior second-half performance at home and Chico's away second-half collapses make a home second-half win likely.
- Santa Fe second half goal difference: +0.8 per game (1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded).
- Chico away second half goal difference: -1.5 per game (0.2 scored, 1.7 conceded).
- Santa Fe won second half in 5 of 9 home matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonIndependiente Santa FeEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Santa Fe is favored, their tendency to draw at halftime reduces the probability of a HT/FT double, though Chico's away struggles provide some support.
- Santa Fe home HT/FT win rate: 33% (3 of 9 home matches).
- Chico away HT/FT loss rate: 60% (6 of 10 away matches).
- H2H: Santa Fe led at HT and won in 2 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostIndependiente Santa Fe / Independiente Santa FeEstimated chance35%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Historical low-scoring H2H pattern and Chico's severe away scoring drought strongly support under 2.5 goals.
- Last 3 H2H meetings: 1-0, 0-0, 0-0 (all under 2.5).
- Santa Fe home goals: 1.89 per game; Chico away goals: 0.2 per game.
- Chico away matches: 9 of 10 had under 2.5 goals (only 2 goals scored total).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chico's away scoring futility and Santa Fe's defensive solidity at home make it unlikely both teams will score.
- Chico away goals: 2 in 10 matches, failed to score in 8 of 10.
- Santa Fe home clean sheets: 3 in last 5 home matches across all competitions.
- H2H: Chico failed to score in last 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chico's away attack is the weakest in the league, and Santa Fe's recent defensive record at home suggests a clean sheet is likely.
- Santa Fe home clean sheets: 3 in last 5 home matches.
- Chico away goals: 0.2 per game, shut out in 8 of 10 away matches.
- H2H: Santa Fe kept clean sheets in last 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBoyaca Chico not to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Santa Fe's consistent home scoring and Chico's leaky away defense make over 1.5 home goals a strong possibility.
- Santa Fe home goals: 1.89 per game, scored 2+ in 6 of 9 home matches.
- Chico away goals conceded: 2.7 per game, conceded 2+ in 9 of 10 away matches.
- Santa Fe scored 2+ in 4 of last 5 home matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonIndependiente Santa Fe over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and Chico has not scored a first-half away goal all season, making under 1.5 first-half goals very likely.
- Santa Fe first half goals: 0.6 per game; Chico first half goals: 0.4 per game.
- Chico away first half goals: 0 in 10 away matches (all first half goals scored at home).
- H2H last 3: 0 first half goals in each match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively low corner counts, and historical matchups have stayed under 9.5 corners, though Chico's slightly higher average adds some uncertainty.
- Santa Fe average corners: 2.9 per game; Chico average corners: 4.5 per game.
- Combined average corners: 7.4 per game.
- H2H last 5: total corners averaged 7.2 per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages slightly exceed 4.5, and Chico's away matches tend to be physical, but the low confidence reflects variability in card counts.
- Santa Fe average yellow cards: 2.1 per game; Chico average: 3.0 per game.
- Combined average cards: 5.1 per game.
- Chico away matches: 3.2 yellow cards per game on average.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The handicap market is not directly available, but the -1 European handicap line at 2.10 implies a 47.6% probability, which is below our 68% win estimate, but the push risk on a one-goal win makes it less attractive than the straight win at 1.30.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W0-1ChicovSanta FeJan 31, 2026PRI

D0-0ChicovSanta FeOct 18, 2025PRI

D0-0Santa FevChicoApr 27, 2025PRI

L3-1Santa FevChicoOct 11, 2024PRI

W1-2ChicovSanta FeFeb 26, 2024PRI

Independiente Santa Fe: 3 clean sheetsBoyaca Chico: 2 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Independiente Santa Fe Post season qualification	19	7	8	4	29-22	29	DLLDW
18	Boyaca Chico	19	5	2	12	15-32	17	LWLLW

12pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Independiente Santa Fe

D2-2Once CaldasAug 3PRI

W3-0Caracas FCJul 31CON

L1-2Águilas DoradasJul 26PRI

W2-0Caracas FCJul 24CON

W1-0PenarolMay 28CON

W2-1PlatenseMay 20CON

D1-1JuniorMay 17PRI

W4-0America de CaliMay 13PRI

D1-1America de CaliMay 10PRI

D1-1CorinthiansMay 7CON

W3-1Internacional de BogotaMay 3PRI

L1-2PlatenseApr 29CON

W2-1Deportivo PastoApr 23PRI

W5-0CucutaApr 19PRI

L0-2CorinthiansApr 16CON

Boyaca Chico

L0-7America de CaliAug 2PRI

L0-1LlanerosMay 27COP

D2-2MillonariosMay 23COP

W4-0Depor FCMay 16COP

D0-0PatriotasMay 7COP

W3-0LlanerosMay 2PRI

L0-4Internacional de BogotaApr 27PRI

L0-2Independiente MedellinApr 22PRI

W1-0Deportivo CaliApr 17PRI

L0-5BucaramangaApr 12PRI

W1-0Deportivo PereiraApr 2PRI

L0-1CucutaMar 28PRI

D1-1Deportes TolimaMar 23PRI

L0-2Deportivo PastoMar 18PRI

W2-1MillonariosMar 14PRI

Squad & Injuries

Independiente Santa Fe

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Boyaca Chico

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Independiente Santa Fe at half-time / Independiente Santa Fe at full-time

No

Under 1.5

Independiente Santa Fe

Independiente Santa Fe or Draw

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Independiente Santa Fe

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Independiente Santa Fe

Boyaca Chico

Squad & Injuries

Independiente Santa Fe

Boyaca Chico