Dobrudzha Dobrich1CSKA Sofia II3

HT 0–2Mon 21 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–654%

Edges2–433%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 06:22 · Europe/Bucharest

CSKA Sofia II are the better side and should avoid defeat, but the 1.83 outright win is a negative-edge pass — the value is in "Draw or CSKA Sofia II" at 1.38 (78% vs 72.5% implied, HIGH confidence).

Pair it with Under 2.5 goals and BTTS "No" for small edges, and avoid Under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.43, which is roughly eight points overpriced.

Context

Dobrudzha Dobrich are 17th in the 18-team Bulgarian Second League with one win, three draws and five defeats from nine matches. Their recent form reads L-D-L-D-L, and they have scored nine goals while conceding 14.
The table position and form line show a team that has struggled to turn matches into wins, with three draws in their last five. Against a CSKA Sofia II side averaging 1.9 goals per game, Dobrudzha's main task is to stay compact and avoid the early deficits that have hurt them. Their home record is slightly better than their away record, but the overall points return still leaves them in the relegation zone.
- Dobrudzha are 17th in the Second League with 6 points from 9 matches (W1 D3 L5).
- Their recent league form is L-D-L-D-L, including a 0-2 defeat at Vihren on 13 September 2026.
- They have scored 9 and conceded 14 in the league this season.
CSKA Sofia II are 2nd in the Second League with 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 9 matches. They have scored 19 goals and conceded 8, giving them a goal difference of +11.
Their 1.9 goals-per-game average is supported by recent results such as a 4-0 home win over Montana on 13 September 2026 and a 5-1 home win over Spartak Pleven on 3 September 2026. However, their away record is much less prolific: 5 goals in 5 away matches, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. That split suggests they are stronger at home, and Dobrudzha's best chance is to keep the game tight at their own ground.
- CSKA Sofia II are 2nd with 17 points from 9 matches (W5 D2 L2), scoring 19 and conceding 8.
- They average 1.9 goals per game in the league this season.
- Their away record is W2 D1 L2 with 5 goals scored and 3 conceded in 5 away matches.
Dobrudzha's home record in the Second League this season is W1 D3 L1, with 7 goals scored and 4 conceded in 5 home matches. Their away record is W0 D0 L4, with 2 scored and 10 conceded.
The contrast is stark: they have taken 6 of their 7 points at home and have conceded only 4 goals in 5 home league games. That makes their own ground the place where they are most likely to compete, even against a high-scoring opponent. The limit is that three of those five home matches were draws, so home advantage has not translated into wins consistently.
- Dobrudzha's home league record is W1 D3 L1 with 7 goals scored and 4 conceded in 5 matches.
- Their away league record is W0 D0 L4 with 2 goals scored and 10 conceded in 4 matches.
- They have taken 6 of their 7 league points at home.
Dobrudzha's season averages show they score 0.6 first-half goals and concede 0.8, while trailing at half-time in 47% of matches and leading in only 20%.
Those numbers point to a team that often starts on the back foot, which is dangerous against a CSKA Sofia II side that has led at half-time in 40% of its matches. If Dobrudzha concede early, they will have to chase a game against an opponent with a strong scoring record. Their recent 0-2 defeat at Vihren on 13 September 2026 followed exactly that pattern, with a 0-1 half-time deficit.
- Dobrudzha average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded per league match.
- They have trailed at half-time in 47% of their league matches and led in only 20%.
- In their 0-2 defeat at Vihren on 13 September 2026, they were 0-1 down at half-time.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia II's superior table position, goal difference (+11 vs -5) and Dobrudzha's weak recent form (1 win in 9) point to an away win, though Dobrudzha's relatively solid home record (only 1 home loss) tempers confidence.
- CSKA Sofia II sit 2nd with 17 pts from 9 (W5 D2 L2), 19 goals scored vs 8 conceded (season 2026).
- Dobrudzha are 17th with 6 pts (W1 D3 L5), 9 scored vs 14 conceded, and have lost all 4 away games but only 1 of 5 at home.
- Dobrudzha's last 5 league matches: L, D, L, D, L with just 2 goals scored in that span.
- CSKA Sofia II away record: W2 D1 L2, 5 scored vs 3 conceded in 5 away games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCSKA Sofia IIEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining CSKA Sofia II's strong overall record with Dobrudzha's tendency to draw at home (3 draws in 5) makes the double chance covering the away side and draw the safest result-market play.
- Dobrudzha have won just 1 of 9 league matches this season (W1 D3 L5).
- CSKA Sofia II have lost only 2 of 9 (W5 D2 L2) and are unbeaten in 3 of their last 4.
- Dobrudzha's home record is W1 D3 L1, showing they rarely lose at home but also rarely win.
- CSKA Sofia II away form: W2 D1 L2 with a positive goal difference away from home.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or CSKA Sofia IIEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia II's superior attacking output and Dobrudzha's scoring drought (2 goals in 5) support the away side covering a half-goal handicap, though Dobrudzha's home resilience keeps this at medium confidence.
- CSKA Sofia II have scored 19 goals in 9 matches (2.1 per game) vs Dobrudzha's 9 in 9 (1.0 per game).
- Dobrudzha have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 league matches.
- CSKA Sofia II have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 9 league games.
- Dobrudzha have failed to score in 4 of their last 9 league matches.
BetBugs · Asian HandicapwonCSKA Sofia II -0.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring averages for both sides and frequent level half-time results make a draw at the break the most likely first-half outcome.
- Dobrudzha have been level at half-time in a majority of recent matches (D results at HT in 5 of last 9).
- CSKA Sofia II have drawn at half-time in several recent games (0-0 HT in 4 of last 9).
- Dobrudzha average 0.6 first-half goals; CSKA Sofia II average 0.5.
- Both teams' first-half goal involvement is low, favouring a level half-time score.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia II's superior overall scoring output and Dobrudzha's habit of trailing suggest the away side is more likely to win the second half, though the low base makes this a low-confidence call.
- CSKA Sofia II have scored 19 goals in 9 matches, with a strong second-half scoring tendency implied by their high totals.
- Dobrudzha have conceded 2.0 goals per match on average across their last 15.
- Dobrudzha have trailed at half-time in 47% of matches, often chasing games late.
- CSKA Sofia II's away record shows they score in tight games (5 goals in 5 away).
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCSKA Sofia IIEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dobrudzha's low first-half leading rate (20%) and CSKA Sofia II's stronger half-time position make the away-or-draw first-half double chance the safer play.
- Dobrudzha have led at half-time in only 20% of matches.
- CSKA Sofia II have led at half-time in 40% of matches and drawn in several others.
- Dobrudzha average 0.6 first-half goals scored vs 0.8 conceded.
- CSKA Sofia II average 0.5 first-half goals scored vs 0.5 conceded.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or CSKA Sofia IIEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia II's stronger overall profile and Dobrudzha's low half-time leading rate make a draw-to-away or away-to-away HT/FT combination plausible, but the low base keeps confidence low.
- CSKA Sofia II have won 5 of 9 league matches, often from strong positions.
- Dobrudzha have lost 5 of 9 and rarely lead at half-time (20%).
- CSKA Sofia II's away form (W2 D1 L2) shows they can win on the road.
- Dobrudzha's home record (W1 D3 L1) shows they are hard to beat but rarely win.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw or CSKA Sofia II / CSKA Sofia IIEstimated chance30%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dobrudzha's low-scoring profile and CSKA Sofia II's tight away record (only 8 goals in 5 away games combined) point to a low-total game, though CSKA's occasional high-scoring home displays add variance.
- Dobrudzha's last 5 league matches produced 2, 4, 2, 0, 1 total goals — only one went over 2.5.
- Dobrudzha average 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match across their last 15.
- CSKA Sofia II's away games average just 1.6 total goals (5 scored, 3 conceded in 5).
- Dobrudzha have scored 0 goals in 4 of their last 9 league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dobrudzha's frequent blanks and CSKA Sofia II's solid defensive record away from home make both teams scoring less likely, though Dobrudzha's 2-2 and 2-4 games show occasional goal involvement.
- Dobrudzha have failed to score in 4 of their last 9 league matches.
- CSKA Sofia II have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 9 league games.
- Dobrudzha's last 5 league matches: 0-2, 2-2, 0-2, 0-0, 2-4 — three blanks.
- CSKA Sofia II away games: 5 scored, 3 conceded in 5, suggesting low-scoring away outings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dobrudzha's scoring drought combined with CSKA Sofia II's stingy away defence gives a reasonable chance of an away clean sheet, but Dobrudzha's home scoring record (7 goals in 5 home games) limits confidence.
- CSKA Sofia II have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 9 league matches.
- Dobrudzha have failed to score in 4 of their last 9 league matches.
- Dobrudzha scored just 2 goals in their last 5 league games.
- CSKA Sofia II conceded only 3 goals in 5 away league games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDobrudzha Dobrich not to scoreEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' low first-half scoring averages (0.6 and 0.5) and Dobrudzha's tendency to start slowly make under 1.5 first-half goals the value play.
- Dobrudzha average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded across their last 15 matches.
- CSKA Sofia II average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Dobrudzha have trailed at half-time in 47% of matches but led in only 20%.
- CSKA Sofia II have led at half-time in 40% of matches, suggesting they often score early but not heavily.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dobrudzha's modest home scoring rate and CSKA Sofia II's tight away defence make under 1.5 home goals the likely outcome.
- Dobrudzha have scored 7 goals in 5 home league games (1.4 per game).
- Dobrudzha have failed to score in 4 of their last 9 league matches.
- Dobrudzha scored just 2 goals in their last 5 league games overall.
- CSKA Sofia II have conceded only 3 goals in 5 away league games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonDobrudzha Dobrich under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia II's strong overall scoring but modest away output (1.0 per game) makes over 1.5 away goals a borderline call, with Dobrudzha's leaky defence providing some support.
- CSKA Sofia II have scored 19 goals in 9 league matches (2.1 per game).
- CSKA Sofia II away record: 5 goals in 5 away games (1.0 per game).
- Dobrudzha have conceded 2.0 goals per match on average across their last 15.
- Dobrudzha's home record shows 4 goals conceded in 5 home games.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCSKA Sofia II over 1.5Estimated chance42%