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Predictions graded

Villarreal3Levante1

HT 1–1Sun 20 Sept 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 21–6On targetOn target 7–1CornersCorners 7–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 05:48 · Europe/Bucharest

The market heavily favours Villarreal and goals, but our model sees much lower probabilities, creating negative edges across all major markets.

Avoid Villarreal to win, Over 2.5 goals, and first-half goals; the compressed schedule and injury absences make a low-scoring or drawn match more likely than the odds imply.

Context

Villarreal are 18th in La Liga with 2 points from 5 matches, inside the relegation zone.
They have lost their last three league games, including a 1-2 home defeat to Real Betis on 2026-09-14 and a 2-3 home loss to Deportivo La Coruna on 2026-09-05. Their home record is 0 wins and 2 losses, so they need a result here to avoid falling further behind.
- Villarreal are 18th with 2 points from 5 matches.
- They lost 1-2 at home to Real Betis on 2026-09-14.
- They lost 2-3 at home to Deportivo La Coruna on 2026-09-05.
Levante are 13th with 5 points, but their away form is poor.
They have played three away matches, drawing 0-0 with Malaga on 2026-09-06 and 0-0 with Osasuna on 2026-08-24, and losing 0-3 to Espanyol on 2026-08-16. They have not scored an away goal in La Liga this season.
- Levante's away record is 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
- They have scored 0 goals in 3 away matches.
- They lost 0-3 to Espanyol on 2026-08-16.
Villarreal defender J. Foyth has started 2 of the last 5 available lineups.
Coach Iñigo Pérez said on 13 September that Foyth was improving but not yet available, leaving his status for Levante unresolved. That uncertainty may force Villarreal to use a different defensive setup or delay a settled back line.
- Villarreal coach Iñigo Pérez said on 13 September that Foyth was improving but was not yet available.
- Pérez described Foyth as injured while discussing Villarreal's defensive options.
- J. Foyth started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 05:46 · Europe/BucharestAS: Iñigo Pérez on Villarreal availabilityas.com · 13 Sep 2026
The teams met twice in La Liga last season.
Villarreal won 5-1 at home on 2026-05-02, but Levante won 1-0 at home on 2026-02-18. The most recent meeting was a 1-0 Villarreal win in a friendly on 2026-08-05.
- Villarreal beat Levante 5-1 at home on 2026-05-02.
- Levante beat Villarreal 1-0 at home on 2026-02-18.
- Villarreal won 1-0 in a friendly on 2026-08-05.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Villarreal

1.55fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Despite H2H dominance, Villarreal's current home form is dire and the market price already reflects a strong favourite, leaving no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Villarreal or Draw

1.17fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

The market heavily favours Villarreal avoiding defeat, but our estimate is significantly lower, indicating no value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average over 3 total goals per league match and the last league H2H produced six goals, but the odds already price a 66.7% chance, leaving no value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both attacks have scored in most recent league matches and H2H history shows frequent goals at both ends, but the price is slightly below our estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half goal average is 1.8, but the market already implies an 83.3% chance, far above our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Villarreal's strong recent H2H home record and Levante's poor away scoring form give the hosts the edge despite their poor league start.
- Villarreal won 2 of last 5 H2H meetings, including 5-1 at home in May 2026
- Levante away record this season: 0W 2D 1L, 0 goals scored in 3 away matches
- Villarreal home record this season: 0W 0D 2L, but H2H home dominance vs Levante
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVillarrealEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Villarreal's H2H resilience and Levante's away struggles, the hosts avoiding defeat is the most likely outcome.
- Villarreal unbeaten in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings (2W 2D 1L)
- Levante have not won away in La Liga this season (0W 2D 1L)
- Villarreal have drawn 2 of last 5 league matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonVillarreal or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Villarreal's stronger first-half scoring gives them a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Villarreal led at half-time in 20% of recent matches
- Levante trailed at half-time in 20% of recent matches
- Villarreal average 1.1 first-half goals vs Levante's 0.7
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostVillarrealEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A Villarreal win from start to finish is possible but not strongly supported due to their poor home form.
- Villarreal won 2 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Levante have not won away this season
- Villarreal home form is poor (0W 0D 2L)
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostVillarreal/VillarrealEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high goal involvement in recent matches and the last league H2H was high-scoring, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Villarreal league matches average 3.4 total goals (1.7 for, 1.7 against)
- Levante league matches average 3.1 total goals (1.7 for, 1.4 against)
- Last H2H league meeting produced 6 goals (5-1)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks have been productive recently and H2H history shows frequent goals at both ends.
- Villarreal scored in 4 of last 5 league matches
- Levante scored in 3 of last 5 league matches
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Villarreal average 1.1 first-half goals per match
- Levante average 0.7 first-half goals per match
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.8
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates suggest a moderate chance of over 1.5 goals after the break.
- Villarreal average 0.6 second-half goals (1.7 total - 1.1 first half)
- Levante average 1.0 second-half goals (1.7 total - 0.7 first half)
- Combined second-half average: 1.6
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, suggesting a good chance of over 9.5 total corners.
- Villarreal average 7 corners per match
- Levante average 5.3 corners per match
- Combined average: 12.3 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce a solid number of shots on target, making over 8.5 plausible.
- Villarreal average 5.8 shots on target per match
- Levante average 5.4 shots on target per match
- Combined average: 11.2 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 65% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Villarreal has been unreliable when projected to win

Villarreal has fulfilled 2 of 6 win predictions, a 33% success rate. The average estimated probability was 52.8%, so about 3.2 wins were expected, but only 2 occurred. Notably, all 2 fulfilled predictions came at home, while all 3 away predictions missed.

Recent evidence for Villarreal6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

17 May·La Liga